Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of probabilities of future events, we define the term seismic nowcasting, which is the computation of the current state of seismic hazard in a defined geographic region.Comment: 9 Figures, 4 Table

Mineral Concentration of Herbage from Three Paulownia Species Used for Goat Browse

Goats naturally prefer a high proportion of browse in their diets. Therefore, research was initiated to investigate various silvo-pastoral production systems. In May 1997, six Paulownia treatments were planted in a randomized complete block experiment with six replications. Trees were between 6 and 12 cm in height at planting. Treatments included: P. fortunei seedlings, P. tomentosa seedlings, P. elongata seedlings, and three P. elongata clones. Each 4-m wide plot contained a single row of 12 trees with an intra-row spacing of 1 m. Leaf samples were analyzed from all six replications to determine mineral concentration in October 1997, and June and August 1998. Ca and P concentrations varied widely, and the Ca:P ratio exceeded the desired 2:1 with a range from 2.7:1 to 10.1:1. In October 1997, concentrations of Ca were similar in leaf laminae and petioles (1.26%), whereas P concentrations were twice as high in laminae (0.19%) as in petioles (0.09%). In October 1997, laminae from seedlings contained greater concentrations of Ca, Fe, and Zn than did laminae from clones, whereas the opposite was true for every element, with the exception of Fe, in June 1998. By August 1998, these differences had disappeared. Regardless of sampling date and leaf part, concentrations of Ca, Mg, K, Fe, Mn and Zn were sufficient to fulfill goat nutritional requirements, whereas P concentrations were too low. Goats readily browsed Paulownia laminae and no clear preference trends were observed between treatments

Preliminary Parallaxes of 40 L and T Dwarfs from the U.S. Naval Observatory Infrared Astrometry Program

We present preliminary trigonometric parallaxes and proper motions for 22 L dwarfs and 18 T dwarfs measured using the ASTROCAM infrared imager. Relative to absolute parallax corrections are made by employing 2MASS and/or SDSS photometry for reference frame stars. We combine USNO infrared and optical parallaxes with the best available CIT system photometry to determine M_J, M_H, and M_K values for 37 L dwarfs between spectral types L0 to L8 and 19 T dwarfs between spectral types T0.5 and T8 and present selected absolute magnitude versus spectral type and color diagrams, based on these results. Luminosities and temperatures are estimated for these objects. Of special interest are the distances of several objects which are at or near the L-T dwarf boundary so that this important transition can be better understood. The previously reported early-mid T dwarf luminosity excess is clearly confirmed and found to be present at J, H, and K. The large number of objects that populate this luminosity excess region indicates that it cannot be due entirely to selection effects. The T dwarf sequence is extended to M_J~16.9 by 2MASS J041519-0935 which, at d = 5.74 pc, is found to be the least luminous [log(L/L_sun)=-5.58] and coldest (T_eff~760 K) brown dwarf known. Combining results from this paper with earlier USNO CCD results we find that, in contrast to the L dwarfs, there are no examples of low velocity (V_tan < 20 km/s) T dwarfs. We briefly discuss future directions for the USNO infrared astrometry program.Comment: 73 pages, 9 figures, 9 tables, accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journa

The Discovery of an Embedded Cluster of High-Mass Stars Near SGR 1900+14

Deep I-band imaging to approximately I = 26.5 of the soft gamma-ray repeater SGR 1900+14 region has revealed a compact cluster of massive stars located only a few arcseconds from the fading radio source thought to be the location of the SGR (Frail, Kulkarni, & Bloom 1999). This cluster was previously hidden in the glare of the pair of M5 supergiant stars (whose light was removed by PSF subtraction) proposed by Vrba et al. (1996) as likely associated with the SGR 1900+14. The cluster has at least 13 members within a cluster radius of approximately 0.6 pc, based on an estimated distance of 12-15 kpc. It is remarkably similar to a cluster found associated with SGR 1806-20 (Fuchs et al. 1999). That similar clusters have now been found at or near the positions of the two best-studied SGRs suggests that young neutron stars, thought to be responsible for the SGR phenomenon, have their origins in proximate compact clusters of massive stars.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, accepted Astrophysical Journal Letter

Parallax and Luminosity Measurements of an L Subdwarf

We present the first parallax and luminosity measurements for an L subdwarf, the sdL7 2MASS J05325346+8246465. Observations conducted over three years by the USNO infrared astrometry program yield an astrometric distance of 26.7+/-1.2 pc and a proper motion of 2.6241+/-0.0018"/yr. Combined with broadband spectral and photometric measurements, we determine a luminosity of log(Lbol/Lsun) = -4.24+/-0.06 and Teff = 1730+/-90 K (the latter assuming an age of 5-10 Gyr), comparable to mid-type L field dwarfs. Comparison of the luminosity of 2MASS J05325346+8246465 to theoretical evolutionary models indicates that its mass is just below the sustained hydrogen burning limit, and is therefore a brown dwarf. Its kinematics indicate a ~110 Myr, retrograde Galactic orbit which is both eccentric (3 <~ R <~ 8.5 kpc) and extends well away from the plane (Delta_Z = +/-2 kpc), consistent with membership in the inner halo population. The relatively bright J-band magnitude of 2MASS J05325346+8246465 implies significantly reduced opacity in the 1.2 micron region, consistent with inhibited condensate formation as previously proposed. Its as yet unknown subsolar metallicity remains the primary limitation in constraining its mass; determination of both parameters would provide a powerful test of interior and evolutionary models for low-mass stars and brown dwarfs.Comment: Accepted to ApJ 10 September 2007; 13 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables, formatted in emulateapj styl

Infrared Excess in the Be Star Delta Scorpii

We present infrared photometric observations of the Be binary system delta Scorpii obtained in 2006. The J,H and K magnitudes are the same within the errors compared to observations taken 10 months earlier. We derive the infrared excess from the observation and compare this to the color excess predicted by a radiative equilibrium model of the primary star and its circumstellar disk. We use a non-LTE computational code to model the gaseous envelope concentrated in the star's equatorial plane and calculate the expected spectral energy distribution and Halpha emission profile of the star with its circumstellar disk. Using the observed infrared excess of delta Sco, as well as Halpha spectroscopy bracketing the IR observations in time, we place constraints on the radial density distribution in the circumstellar disk. Because the disk exhibits variability in its density distribution, this work will be helpful in understanding its dynamics.Comment: 12 pages, 14 figures, to be published in PASP May 200

The Near-Infared Survey of the N49 Region around the Soft Gamma Repeater SGR 0526-66

We report the results of a deep near-infrared survey with the Very Large Telescope/Infrared Spectrometer and Array Camera of the environment of the supernova remnant N49 in the Large Magellanic Cloud, which contains the soft gamma repeater SGR 0526-66. Two of the four confirmed SGRs are potentially associated with compact stellar clusters. We thus searched for a similar association of SGR 0526-66 and imaged a young stellar cluster at a projected distance of ∼30 pc from the SGR. This constitutes the third cluster–SGR link and lends support to scenarios in which SGR progenitors originate in young dusty clusters. If confirmed, the cluster-SGR association constrains the age and thus the initial mass of SGR progenitor

A ROSAT Deep Survey of Four Small Gamma-Ray Burst Error Boxes

We have used the ROSAT High Resolution Imager to search for quiescent X-ray counterparts to four gamma-ray bursts which were localized to small (< 10 sq. arcmin.) error boxes with the Interplanetary Network. The observations took place years after the bursts, and the effective exposure times for each target varied from ~16 - 23 ks. We have not found any X-ray sources inside any of the error boxes. The 0.1 - 2.4 keV 3 sigma flux upper limits range from around 5 x 10^-14 erg cm^-2 s^-1 to 6 x 10^-13 erg cm^-2 s^-1 depending on the burst and the assumed shape of the quiescent spectrum. We consider four types of X-ray emitting galaxies (normal, AGN, faint, and star-forming) and use the flux upper limits to constrain their redshifts. We then use the GRB fluences to constrain the total energies of the bursts.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures; submitted to the Astrophysical Journa