14 research outputs found

    CaMEL and ADCIRC storm surge models-A comparative study

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    The Computation and Modeling Engineering Laboratory (CaMEL), an implicit solver-based storm surge model, has been extended for use on high performance computing platforms. An MPI (Message Passing Interface) based parallel version of CaMEL has been developed from the previously existing serial version. CaMEL uses hybrid finite element and finite volume techniques to solve shallow water conservation equations in either a Cartesian or a spherical coordinate system and includes hurricane-induced wind stress and pressure, bottom friction, the Coriolis effect, and tidal forcing. Both semi-implicit and fully-implicit time stepping formulations are available. Once the parallel implementation is properly validated, CaMEL is evaluated against ADCIRC, an established storm surge model, using a hindcast of storm surge due to Hurricane Katrina. Observed high water marks are used to verify that both models have comparable accuracy. The effects of time step on the stability and accuracy of the models are investigated and indicate that the semi- and fully-implicit solvers in CaMEL allow the use of larger timesteps than ADCIRC's explicit and semi-implicit solvers. However, ADCIRC outperforms CaMEL in parallel scalability and execution wall clock times. Wall times of CaMEL improve significantly when the largest stable time step sizes are used in respective models, although ADCIRC still is faster

    The role of hydrodynamics in explaining variability in fish populations

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    A review of the physical processes present in coastal regions and their effect on pelagic stages of flatfish populations is presented. While quantitative understanding of processes affecting cross-shelf transport and exchange continues to be a fundamental problem shared by physical oceanographers and fisheries scientists studying the early life history of flatfish, advances in hydrodynamic and coupled physical-biological models have made it possible to begin to examine population-level implications of environmental processes. There is now a need to rank these processes in terms of their impact on recruit strength. Existing paradigms provide testable frameworks for explaining the role of physical variability in the observed population patterns, abundance and variability. Identifying explicit links between physical variability and recruitment could result in new approaches to fisheries management strategies

    Low frequency water level correction in storm surge models using data assimilation

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    Research performed to-date on data assimilation (DA) in storm surge modeling has found it to have limited value for predicting rapid surge responses (e.g., those accompanying tropical cyclones). In this paper, we submit that a well-resolved, barotropic hydrodynamic model is typically able to capture the surge event itself, leaving slower processes that determine the large scale, background water level as primary sources of water level error. These “unresolved drivers” reflect physical processes not included in the model's governing equations or forcing terms, such as far field atmospheric forcing, baroclinic processes, major ocean currents, steric variations, or precipitation. We have developed a novel, efficient, optimal interpolation-based DA scheme, using observations from coastal water level gages, that dynamically corrects for the presence of unresolved drivers. The methodology is applied for Hurricane Matthew (2016) and results demonstrate it is highly effective at removing water level residuals, roughly halving overall surge errors for that storm. The method is computationally efficient, well-suited for either hindcast or forecast applications and extensible to more advanced techniques and datasets

    Spatial differences in wind-driven sediment resuspension in a shallow, coastal estuary

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    Two locations approximately 11 km apart along the axis of the New River Estuary near Jacksonville, NC USA were continuously monitored for eight years. Included in the observations are vertical profiles of turbidity, temperature, salinity, chl-a, dissolved oxygen, pH and water velocity as well as local wind velocity. Differences between the two sites result from a number of factors, including bathymetry, wind strength, direction and fetch, estuarine morphology, tidal currents and sediment properties. The site near the head of the estuary, Morgan Bay, is deeper, experiences generally weaker winds and has less fetch in most directions. Stones Bay, the down-estuary site, is shallower, experiences stronger winds and has longer fetch, particularly in the prevailing wind directions. Current speeds also differ along the estuary with the down-estuary Stones Bay site being more tidal. The observations were used together with a simple wave model to analyze the estuarine turbidity response to different forcing mechanisms. Results suggest that sediments are resuspended primarily by wind-wave generated bottom stress at both locations. While turbidity is generally higher in Stones Bay than in Morgan Bay, turbidity as a function of the local wave-induced bottom stress (including forcing from all directions) is similar at both locations at low stress but diverges at higher stresses. At higher bottom stresses, turbidity in Stones Bay responds primarily to winds from the NE, S and NW while turbidity in Morgan Bay responds primarily to winds from the NW and S. Accounting for sediment resuspension within an approximate spatial advection scale around each of the observation sites, yields a similar turbidity vs bottom stress response curve for the three primary directions in Stones Bay and the S direction in Morgan Bay but a greater turbidity response for winds from the NW in Morgan Bay. In the latter case, waves are crossing the section of the New River Estuary just downstream of the confluence with the New River and are presumably encountering sediments that are more easily resuspended. Average sediment export is down-river with more sediment leaving Stones Bay than Morgan Bay

    Real-time simulated storm surge predictions during Hurricane Michael (2018)

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    Storm surge caused by tropical cyclones can cause overland flooding and lead to loss of life while damaging homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure. In 2018, Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, FL, on 10 October with peak wind speeds near 71.9 m s-1 (161 mph) and storm surge over 4.5 m NAVD88. During Hurricane Michael, water levels and waves were predicted near real-time using a deterministic, depth-averaged, high-resolution ADCIRC+SWAN model of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The model was forced with an asymmetrical parametric vortex model (GAHM) based on Michael's National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track and strength. The authors report errors between simulated and observed water level time-series, peak water level, and timing of peak for NHC Advisories. Forecasts of water levels were within 0.5 m of observations, and the timing of peak water levels was within 1 hr as early as 48 hr before Michael’s eventual landfall. We also examined the effect of adding far-field meteorology in our TC vortex model for use in real-time forecasts. In general, we found that including far-field meteorology by blending the TC vortex with a basin-scale NWP product improved water level forecasts. However, we note that divergence between the NHC forecast track and the forecast track of the meteorological model supplying the far-field winds represents a potential limitation to operationalizing a blended wind field surge product. The approaches and data reported herein provide a transparent assessment of water level forecasts during Hurricane Michael and highlight potential future improvements for more accurate predictions

    Recent increase in catastrophic tropical cyclone flooding in coastal North Carolina, USA: Long-term observations suggest a regime shift

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    Coastal North Carolina, USA, has experienced three extreme tropical cyclone-driven flood events since 1999, causing catastrophic human impacts from flooding and leading to major alterations of water quality, biogeochemistry, and ecological conditions. The apparent increased frequency and magnitudes of such events led us to question whether this is just coincidence or whether we are witnessing a regime shift in tropical cyclone flooding and associated ecosystem impacts. Examination of continuous rainfall records for coastal NC since 1898 reveals a period of unprecedentedly high precipitation since the late-1990’s, and a trend toward increasingly high precipitation associated with tropical cyclones over the last 120 years. We posit that this trend, which is consistent with observations elsewhere, represents a recent regime shift with major ramifications for hydrology, carbon and nutrient cycling, water and habitat quality and resourcefulness of Mid-Atlantic and possibly other USA coastal regions

    Sensitivity of storm surge predictions to atmospheric forcing during Hurricane Isaac

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    Storm surge and overland flooding can be predicted with computational models at high levels of resolution. To improve efficiency in forecasting applications, surge models often use atmospheric forcing from parametric vortex models, which represent the surface pressures and wind fields with a few storm parameters. The future of storm surge prediction could involve real-time coupling of surge and full-physics atmospheric models; thus, their accuracies must be understood in a real hurricane scenario. The authors compare predictions from a parametric vortex model (using forecast tracks from the National Hurricane Center) and a full-physics coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model during Hurricane Isaac (2012). The predictions are then applied within a tightly coupled, wave and surge modeling system describing the northern Gulf of Mexico and the floodplains of southwest Louisiana. It is shown that, in a hindcast scenario, a parametric vortex model can outperform a data-assimilated wind product, and given reasonable forecast advisories, a parametric vortex model gives reasonable surge forecasts. However, forecasts using a full-physics coupled model outperformed the forecast advisories and improved surge forecasts. Both approaches are valuable for forecasting the coastal impacts associated with tropical cyclones

    Downscaling of real-time coastal flooding predictions for decision support

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    During coastal storms, forecasters and researchers use numerical models to predict the magnitude and extent of coastal flooding. These models must represent the large regions that may be affected by a storm, and thus, they can be computationally costly and may not use the highest geospatial resolution. However, predicted flood extents can be downscaled (by increasing resolution) as a post-processing step. Existing downscaling methods use either a static extrapolation of the flooding as a flat surface, or rely on subsequent simulations with nested, full-physics models at higher resolution. This research explores a middle way, in which the downscaling includes simplified physics to improve accuracy. Using results from a state-of-the-art model, we downscale its flood predictions with three methods: (1) static, in which the water surface elevations are extrapolated horizontally until they intersect the ground surface; (2) slopes, in which the gradient of the water surface is used; and (3) head loss, which accounts for energy losses due to land cover characteristics. The downscaling methods are then evaluated for forecasts and hindcasts of Hurricane Florence (2018), which caused widespread flooding in North Carolina. The static and slopes methods tend to over-estimate the flood extents. However, the head loss method generates a downscaled flooding extent that is a close match to the predictions from a higher-resolution, full-physics model. These results are encouraging for the use of these downscaling methods to support decision-making during coastal storms

    Recent increases of rainfall and flooding from tropical cyclones (TCs) in North Carolina (USA): implications for organic matter and nutrient cycling in coastal watersheds

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    Coastal North Carolina experienced 36 tropical cyclones (TCs), including three floods of historical significance in the past two decades (Hurricanes Floyd-1999, Matthew-2016 and Florence-2018). These events caused catastrophic flooding and major alterations of water quality, fisheries habitat and ecological conditions of the Albemarle-Pamlico Sound (APS), the second largest estuarine complex in the United States. Continuous rainfall records for coastal NC since 1898 reveal a period of unprecedented high precipitation storm events since the late-1990s. Six of seven of the “wettest” storm events in this > 120-year record occurred in the past two decades, identifying a period of elevated precipitation and flooding associated with recent TCs. We examined storm-related freshwater discharge, carbon (C) and nutrient, i.e., nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loadings, and evaluated contributions to total annual inputs in the Neuse River Estuary (NRE), a major sub-estuary of the APS. These contributions were highly significant, accounting for > 50% of annual loads depending on antecedent conditions and storm-related flooding. Depending on the magnitude of freshwater discharge, the NRE either acted as a “processor” to partially assimilate and metabolize the loads or acted as a “pipeline” to transport the loads to the APS and coastal Atlantic Ocean. Under base-flow, terrestrial sources dominate riverine carbon. During storm events these carbon sources are enhanced through the inundation and release of carbon from wetlands. These findings show that event-scale discharge plays an important and, at times, predominant role in C, N and P loadings. We appear to have entered a new climatic regime characterized by more frequent extreme precipitation events, with major ramifications for hydrology, cycling of C, N and P, water quality and habitat conditions in estuarine and coastal waters

    Barotropic tides in the South Atlantic Bight

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    The characteristics of the principal barotropic diurnal and semidiurnal tides are examined for the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) of the eastern United States coast. We combine recent observations from pressure gauges and ADCPs on fixed platforms and additional short-term deployments off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts together with National Ocean Service coastal tidal elevation harmonics. These data have shed light on the regional tidal propagation, particularly off the Georgia/South Carolina coast, which is perforated by a dense estuary/tidal inlet complex (ETIC). We have computed tidal solutions for the western North Atlantic Ocean on two model domains. One includes a first-order representation of the ETIC in the SAB, and the other does not include the ETIC. We find that the ETIC is highly dissipative and affects the regional energy balance of the semidiurnal tides. Nearshore, inner, and midshelf model skill at semidiurnal frequencies is sensitive to the inclusion of the ETIC. The numerical solution that includes the ETIC shows significantly improved skill compared to the solution that does not include the ETIC. For the M2 constituent, the largest tidal frequency in the SAB, overall amplitude and phase error is reduced from 0.25 m to 0.03 m and 13.8° to 2.8° for coastal observation stations. Similar improvement is shown for midshelf stations. Diurnal tides are relatively unaffected by the ETIC
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