Definition and characterization of localised meningitis epidemics in Burkina Faso: a longitudinal retrospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt is characterised by seasonality, localised epidemics and epidemic waves. To facilitate research and surveillance, we aimed to develop a definition for localised epidemics to be used in real-time surveillance based on weekly case reports at the health centre level.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used national routine surveillance data on suspected meningitis from January 2004 to December 2008 in six health districts in western and central Burkina Faso. We evaluated eight thresholds composed of weekly incidence rates at health centre level for their performance in predicting annual incidences of 0.4%and 0.8% in health centre areas. The eventually chosen definition was used to describe the spatiotemporal epidemiology and size of localised meningitis epidemics during the included district years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among eight weekly thresholds evaluated, a weekly incidence rate of 75 cases per 100,000 inhabitants during at least two consecutive weeks with at least 5 cases per week had 100% sensitivity and 98% specificity for predicting an annual incidence of at least 0.8% in health centres. Using this definition, localised epidemics were identified in all but one years during 2004-2008, concerned less than 10% of the districts' population and often were geographically dispersed. Where sufficient laboratory data were available, localised epidemics were exclusively due to meningococci.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This definition of localised epidemics a the health centre level will be useful for risk factor and modelling studies to understand the meningitis belt phenomenon and help documenting vaccine impact against epidemic meningitis where no widespread laboratory surveillance exists for quantifying disease reduction after vaccination.</p

Definition and characterization of localized meningitis epidemics in Burkina Faso: a longitudinal retrospective study.

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Correction: Identifying Optimal Vaccination Strategies for Serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis Conjugate Vaccine in the African Meningitis Belt.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0063605.]

Identifying Optimal Vaccination Strategies for Serogroup A <i>Neisseria meningitidis</i> Conjugate Vaccine in the African Meningitis Belt

<div><p>Objective</p><p>The optimal long-term vaccination strategies to provide population-level protection against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (MenA) are unknown. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of MenA transmission, colonization, and disease in the African meningitis belt, and used this model to explore the impact of various vaccination strategies.</p><p>Methods</p><p>The model stratifies the simulated population into groups based on age, infection status, and MenA antibody levels. We defined the model parameters (such as birth and death rates, age-specific incidence rates, and age-specific duration of protection) using published data and maximum likelihood estimation. We assessed the validity of the model by comparing simulated incidence of invasive MenA and prevalence of MenA carriage to observed incidence and carriage data.</p><p>Results</p><p>The model fit well to observed age- and season-specific prevalence of carriage (mean pseudo-R2 0.84) and incidence of invasive disease (mean R2 0.89). The model is able to reproduce the observed dynamics of MenA epidemics in the African meningitis belt, including seasonal increases in incidence, with large epidemics occurring every eight to twelve years. Following a mass vaccination campaign of all persons 1–29 years of age, the most effective modeled vaccination strategy is to conduct mass vaccination campaigns every 5 years for children 1–5 years of age. Less frequent campaigns covering broader age groups would also be effective, although somewhat less so. Introducing conjugate MenA vaccine into the EPI vaccination schedule at 9 months of age results in higher predicted incidence than periodic mass campaigns.</p><p>Discussion</p><p>We have developed the first mathematical model of MenA in Africa to incorporate age structures and progressively waning protection over time. Our model accurately reproduces key features of MenA epidemiology in the African meningitis belt. This model can help policy makers consider vaccine program effectiveness when determining the feasibility and benefits of MenA vaccination strategies.</p></div

Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup W, Burkina Faso, 2012

In 2010, Burkina Faso became the first country to introduce meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT). During 2012, Burkina Faso reported increases in Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W, raising questions about whether these cases were a natural increase in disease or resulted from serogroup replacement after PsA-TT introduction. We analyzed national surveillance data to describe the epidemiology of serogroup W and genotyped 61 serogroup W isolates. In 2012, a total of 5,807 meningitis cases were reported through enhanced surveillance, of which 2,353 (41%) were laboratory confirmed. The predominant organism identified was N. meningitidis serogroup W (62%), and all serogroup W isolates characterized belonged to clonal complex 11. Although additional years of data are needed before we can understand the epidemiology of serogroup W after PsA–TT introduction, these data suggest that serogroup W will remain a major cause of sporadic disease and has epidemic potential, underscoring the need to maintain high-quality case-based meningitis surveillance after PsA–TT introduction. Download MP3  Length: 1:4