Optimal Execution with Dynamic Order Flow Imbalance

We examine optimal execution models that take into account both market microstructure impact and informational costs. Informational footprint is related to order flow and is represented by the trader's influence on the flow imbalance process, while microstructure influence is captured by instantaneous price impact. We propose a continuous-time stochastic control problem that balances between these two costs. Incorporating order flow imbalance leads to the consideration of the current market state and specifically whether one's orders lean with or against the prevailing order flow, key components often ignored by execution models in the literature. In particular, to react to changing order flow, we endogenize the trading horizon $T$. After developing the general indefinite-horizon formulation, we investigate several tractable approximations that sequentially optimize over price impact and over $T$. These approximations, especially a dynamic version based on receding horizon control, are shown to be very accurate and connect to the prevailing Almgren-Chriss framework. We also discuss features of empirical order flow and links between our model and "Optimal Execution Horizon" by Easley et al (Mathematical Finance, 2013).Comment: 31 pages, 8 figure

Sequential Design for Ranking Response Surfaces

We propose and analyze sequential design methods for the problem of ranking several response surfaces. Namely, given $L \ge 2$ response surfaces over a continuous input space $\cal X$, the aim is to efficiently find the index of the minimal response across the entire $\cal X$. The response surfaces are not known and have to be noisily sampled one-at-a-time. This setting is motivated by stochastic control applications and requires joint experimental design both in space and response-index dimensions. To generate sequential design heuristics we investigate stepwise uncertainty reduction approaches, as well as sampling based on posterior classification complexity. We also make connections between our continuous-input formulation and the discrete framework of pure regret in multi-armed bandits. To model the response surfaces we utilize kriging surrogates. Several numerical examples using both synthetic data and an epidemics control problem are provided to illustrate our approach and the efficacy of respective adaptive designs.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figures (updated several sections and figures

Sequential Design for Optimal Stopping Problems

We propose a new approach to solve optimal stopping problems via simulation. Working within the backward dynamic programming/Snell envelope framework, we augment the methodology of Longstaff-Schwartz that focuses on approximating the stopping strategy. Namely, we introduce adaptive generation of the stochastic grids anchoring the simulated sample paths of the underlying state process. This allows for active learning of the classifiers partitioning the state space into the continuation and stopping regions. To this end, we examine sequential design schemes that adaptively place new design points close to the stopping boundaries. We then discuss dynamic regression algorithms that can implement such recursive estimation and local refinement of the classifiers. The new algorithm is illustrated with a variety of numerical experiments, showing that an order of magnitude savings in terms of design size can be achieved. We also compare with existing benchmarks in the context of pricing multi-dimensional Bermudan options.Comment: 24 page

mlOSP: Towards a Unified Implementation of Regression Monte Carlo Algorithms

We introduce mlOSP, a computational template for Machine Learning for Optimal Stopping Problems. The template is implemented in the R statistical environment and publicly available via a GitHub repository. mlOSP presents a unified numerical implementation of Regression Monte Carlo (RMC) approaches to optimal stopping, providing a state-of-the-art, open-source, reproducible and transparent platform. Highlighting its modular nature, we present multiple novel variants of RMC algorithms, especially in terms of constructing simulation designs for training the regressors, as well as in terms of machine learning regression modules. At the same time, mlOSP nests most of the existing RMC schemes, allowing for a consistent and verifiable benchmarking of extant algorithms. The article contains extensive R code snippets and figures, and serves the dual role of presenting new RMC features and as a vignette to the underlying software package.Comment: Package repository is at http://github.com/mludkov/mlOS

Sequential Tracking of a Hidden Markov Chain Using Point Process Observations

We study finite horizon optimal switching problems for hidden Markov chain models under partially observable Poisson processes. The controller possesses a finite range of strategies and attempts to track the state of the unobserved state variable using Bayesian updates over the discrete observations. Such a model has applications in economic policy making, staffing under variable demand levels and generalized Poisson disorder problems. We show regularity of the value function and explicitly characterize an optimal strategy. We also provide an efficient numerical scheme and illustrate our results with several computational examples.Comment: Key words and phrases. Markov Modulated Poisson processes, optimal switchin

Adaptive Batching for Gaussian Process Surrogates with Application in Noisy Level Set Estimation

We develop adaptive replicated designs for Gaussian process metamodels of stochastic experiments. Adaptive batching is a natural extension of sequential design heuristics with the benefit of replication growing as response features are learned, inputs concentrate, and the metamodeling overhead rises. Motivated by the problem of learning the level set of the mean simulator response we develop four novel schemes: Multi-Level Batching (MLB), Ratchet Batching (RB), Adaptive Batched Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction (ABSUR), Adaptive Design with Stepwise Allocation (ADSA) and Deterministic Design with Stepwise Allocation (DDSA). Our algorithms simultaneously (MLB, RB and ABSUR) or sequentially (ADSA and DDSA) determine the sequential design inputs and the respective number of replicates. Illustrations using synthetic examples and an application in quantitative finance (Bermudan option pricing via Regression Monte Carlo) show that adaptive batching brings significant computational speed-ups with minimal loss of modeling fidelity.Comment: 36 pages, 6 figure