Cointegration Relationships to Estimate the Marginal Cost of Deficit in Planning a Hydrothermal System: The Case of Brazil

The aim of this study is to analyze the behavior of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to electricity consumption in Brazil to estimate the curve of deficit marginal cost. The deficit cost is used as exogenous parameter in the chain of models for planning the operation and expansion of a hydrothermal system as part of the total cost of operation. The results show a cointegration relationship between GDP and electricity consumption; therefore, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and electricity consumption. This relationship is used to estimate the curve of deficit marginal cost. The possible short-term imbalance can be mitigated using the vector error correction model (VEC). Keywords: Energy deficit; Cointegration; Rationing; Energy planning JEL Classifications: Q40; Q43; Q47; Q4

Gerenciamento da geração de energia elétrica por subsistemas: uma abordagem competitiva

This paper describes a competitive approach for the power generation in Brazil. The objective is to propose a model, where each subsystem is independent to manage its own operation, thereby creating the conditions for the regions development, according to theirs characteristics. The decision-making processfor a hydrothermal power system is described as a Nash-Cournot equilibrium, whereby players make simultaneous decisions based on the output results. In this model, the correct transmission-line dimensioning assures the competition without congestion arrangements.Key words: Game Theory; Restructuring of Brazilian Electrical Sector; Energy System Management.Este artigo descreve uma abordagem competitiva para a geração de energia elétrica no Brasil. O objetivo é propor um modelo em que cada subsistema gerencia a sua operação de forma independente, criando condições para o desenvolvimento da região de acordo com as suas próprias características. O processo decisório é descrito a partir da Teoria dos Jogos, em que os agentes levam a cabo suas estratégias a partir de decisões em relação às quantidades produzidas, resultando no equilíbrio Nash-Cournot. Nesta abordagem é destacada a importância de um correto dimensionamento das linhas de transmissão, pois esta assegura a competição sem a necessidade de arranjos para o gerenciamento da congestão.Palavras-chave: Teoria dos Jogos; Reforma do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro; Gerenciamento de Sistemas de Energia

Gerenciamento da geração de energia elétrica por subsistemas: uma abordagem competitiva

This paper describes a competitive approach for the power generation in Brazil. The objective is to propose a model, where each subsystem is independent to manage its own operation, thereby creating the conditions for the regions development, according to theirs characteristics. The decision-making processfor a hydrothermal power system is described as a Nash-Cournot equilibrium, whereby players make simultaneous decisions based on the output results. In this model, the correct transmission-line dimensioning assures the competition without congestion arrangements.Key words: Game Theory; Restructuring of Brazilian Electrical Sector; Energy System Management.Este artigo descreve uma abordagem competitiva para a geração de energia elétrica no Brasil. O objetivo é propor um modelo em que cada subsistema gerencia a sua operação de forma independente, criando condições para o desenvolvimento da região de acordo com as suas próprias características. O processo decisório é descrito a partir da Teoria dos Jogos, em que os agentes levam a cabo suas estratégias a partir de decisões em relação às quantidades produzidas, resultando no equilíbrio Nash-Cournot. Nesta abordagem é destacada a importância de um correto dimensionamento das linhas de transmissão, pois esta assegura a competição sem a necessidade de arranjos para o gerenciamento da congestão.Palavras-chave: Teoria dos Jogos; Reforma do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro; Gerenciamento de Sistemas de Energia

Future Strategies for Distribution Concessionaires in Partially Deregulated Electric Power Sectors: The Case of Brazil

Partially deregulated electric power sectors create business environments where competitive threats and cooperation opportunities must be very well managed. The best competitive strategy for Brazilian distributors is cost leadership aimed at encouraging the loyalty of potentially free clients, generators and technology developers who're able to freely circulate between the Regulated Contracting Environment and the Free Contracting Environment.

Competition between Second-Generation Ethanol and Bioelectricity using the Residual Biomass of Sugarcane: Effects of Uncertainty on the Production Mix

Several economies around the world are using second-generation (2G) ethanol produced from agricultural residues, like sugarcane straw and bagasse, as a sustainable solution to replace petroleum products. Since first-generation (1G) ethanol uses the sugars of sugarcane, an integrated 1G–2G production would enable the production of more ethanol from the same amount of sugarcane without leading to increased use of arable land. The ethanol production process is complex, involving different high-energy consumption operations such as evaporation and distillation. The economic competitiveness of this process depends heavily on the amount of thermal and electrical energy produced using sugarcane straw and bagasse as input. Thus, the objective of this study was to use the mean-variance methodology to determine the optimal allocation of residual sugarcane biomass between 2G ethanol and bioelectricity productions, with simultaneous objectives of maximizing the return and minimizing the risk for investors of this sector. In this paper, four scenarios are analyzed. The first one is the base scenario that represents the current state of production costs and investments. scenarios 2, 3, and 4 considered four cuts of 10%, 20%, and 40% in the production cost of ethanol 2G, respectively. The results show the optimum biomass allocations and the growth rates of returns as a function of risk growth. It can be concluded that from scenario 4, the production of 2G ethanol becomes financially advantageous for the investor, presenting greater returns with smaller risks

Processo de tomada de decisão sob incerteza em investimentos internacionais na exploração & produção offshore de petróleo: uma abordagem multicritério

Este trabalho apresenta o desenvolvimento teórico sobre a análise de projetos de exploração e produção de petróleo, desde a avaliação econômica tradicional através do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado até a apresentação da Teoria da Utilidade Multiatributo (MAUT), que possibilita a consideração dos riscos e incertezas típicos dos investimentos internacionais no setor upstream do petróleo em um novo ambiente competitivo entre as firmas. Por fim, o trabalho inclui um estudo de caso sobre a aplicação da MAUT na priorização de dez oportunidades exploratórias offshore ao redor do mundo oferecidas a uma multinacional brasileira fictícia de acordo com as preferências dos tomadores de decisão sobre aspectos operacionais, políticos e tecnológicos.<br>This paper presents the theoretical developments in techniques of decision-making analysis in petroleum exploration and production projects, from economic evaluation using Discount Cash Flow (DCF) up to and including a presentation of the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), which enables consideration of typical risks and uncertainties in international petroleum upstream investments in a new competitive situation among firms. Finally, a case study of the MAUT was developed and applied to define priorities among ten offshore exploration opportunities around the world offered to a fictitious Brazilian petroleum multinational company, according to decision-makers' preferences regarding operational, political and technological issues