Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

EMG-informed neuromusculoskeletal models accurately predict knee loading measured using instrumented implants

Objective: Using a musculoskeletal modelling framework, we aimed to (1) estimate knee joint loading using static optimization (SO); (2) explore different calibration functions in electromyogram (EMG)-informed models used in estimating knee load; and (3) determine, when using an EMG-informed stochastic method, if the measured joint loadings are solutions to the muscle redundancy problem when investigating only the uncertainty in muscle forces. Methods: Musculoskeletal models for three individuals with instrumented knee replacements were generated. Muscle forces were calculated using SO, EMG-informed, and EMG-informed stochastic methods. Measured knee joint loads from the prostheses were compared to the SO and EMG-informed solutions. Root mean square error (RMSE) in joint load estimation was calculated, and the muscle force ranges were compared. Results: The RMSE ranged between 192-674 N, 152-487 N, and 7-108 N for the SO, the calibrated EMG-informed solution, and the best fit stochastic result, respectively. The stochastic method produced solution spaces encompassing the measured joint loading up to 98% of stance. Conclusion: Uncertainty in muscle forces can account for total knee loading and it is recommended that, where possible, EMG measurements should be included to estimate knee joint loading. Significance: This work shows that the inclusion of EMG-informed modelling allows for better estimation of knee joint loading when compared to SO.</p

Confirmation of microevolutionary increase in spina bifida occulta among Swiss birth cohorts

Previous studies on the prevalence of spina bifida occulta have indicated a microevolutionary increase in its frequency and possible population differences in the prevalence of the condition. We studied the frequencies of closed and open sacral canals at each sacral level among two birth cohorts in Switzerland. Transverse CT scans and multiplanar reconstruction images of sacra of 95 males and 96 females born in 1940–1950 and 99 males and 94 females born in 1970–1980 in Switzerland were reviewed. We found that individuals born later have significantly more open sacral arches at all sacral levels compared to those born 30–40 years earlier. When results were related to previously published data on Australian cohorts, the trend was the same, but Swiss in both cohorts were less likely to have an open section than Australians at all locations apart from S2. This study confirmed a microevolutionary trend in the opening of sacral canal among two different generations in Switzerland and demonstrated a population difference in the prevalence of spina bifida occulta