Openness, Specialization and Growth

This paper explores the link between trade and growth showing how the relationship between openness and per capita income is contingent to the size and the level of export specialization of countries. Measuring openness both in terms of trade volumes and trade policies, and specialization as a index of the position of the distribution of sectoral revealed comparative advantages, the paper - using parametric and semiparametric panel data analysis - offers a precise taxonomy of the effects of openness on growth according to the size and the specialization of countries. The effect of openness on growth is enhanced by the diversification of sectoral exports characterized by comparative advantages, and is reduced by the physical or economic dimension of the country considered. The effect is however nonmonotonic: an increase in openness is relevant for growth at low levels of openness, specialization is effective only at early stages of development, while is differentiation that enhances growth at higher levels of per capita income.International Trade, Specialization, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Openness, Semiparametric Panel data, Cross-country regression

Trade balance and terms of trade in U.S.: a time-scale decomposition analysis

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence on the nature of the relationship between the terms of trade and the trade balance for US on a scale-by-scale basis using wavelet analysis. Thus, after decomposing the two variables into their time-scale components using to the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) we analyze the time scale relationships between the terms of trade and the trade balance through the wavelet correlation analysis, and nonparametric regression models(GAMs). Wavelet correlation analysis indicates that, if the association between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends mainly on the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic goods, the Armington elasticities may be di¤erent across scales, and in particular, tend to get larger as the time horizon of the agents increases. Moreover, the long-run relationship between the trade balance and the terms of trade from the nonparametric …tted functions seems to provide support to the existence of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler e¤ect .trade variables, wavelet correlation analysis, generalized additive models

The World Trade Network

      This paper uses the tools of network analysis and graph theory to graphically and analytically represent the characteristics of world trade. The structure of the World Trade Network is compared over time, detecting and interpreting patterns of trade ties among countries. In particular, we assess whether the entrance of a number of new important players into the world trading system in recent years has changed the main characteristics of the existing structure of world trade, or whether the existing network was simply extended to a new group of countries. We also analyze whether the observed changes in international trade flow patterns are related to the multilateral or the regional liberalization policies. The results show that trade integration at the world level has been increasing but it is still far from being complete, with the exception of some areas, that there is a strong heterogeneity in the countries’ choice of partners, and that the WTO plays an important role in trade integration. The role of the extensive and the intensive margin of trade is also highlighted.Network analysis,International Trade,WTO,Extensive and Intensive Margins of Trade,Gravity

Similarity in export composition and catching-up

In this paper we look at the role of export composition in the growth process, considering how increased similarity in trade structure among countries can induce catching-up in income levels. We apply our analysis to the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) using the EU as a benchmark. We explicitly consider the sectoral export patterns of the CEECs by comparing them to those of the current members of the EU, focusing on countries' specialization as suppliers for the EU market. Our main result is that similarity in export composition has a positive, significant and nonlinear impact on catching-up, and seems to be driven by the growth of the main export market more than by other factors. Results are robust to controlling for openness and country-size and for investment, schooling, and the quality of institutions.EU enlargement,CEECs,,growth,,export composition,

Overall Specialization and Income: Countries Diversity

� � � This paper gives evidence to a stylized fact often disregarded in international trade empir- ics: countries' diversification. In the last fifteen years, the growth of world trade coexisted with the tendency of countries to reduce the specialization of their export composition along the development path. On average, countries do not specialize, they diversify. Our semiparametric empirical analysis shows how this result is robust to the use of different statistical indexes used to measure trade specialization to the level of sectoral aggrega- tion and to the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated to income per capita. Using a General Additive Model (GAM) with country-specific fixed-effect, we show that, controlling for countries heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income. �Nonparametrics,International Trade,Specialization

Overall Specialization and Income: Countries Diversify

This paper gives evidence to a stylized fact often disregarded in international trade empirics: countries' diversification. In the last fifteen years, the growth of world trade coexisted with the tendency of countries to reduce the specialization of their export composition along the development path. On average, countries do not specialize, they diversify. Our semiparametric empirical analysis shows how this result is robust to the use of different statistical indexes used to measure trade specialization to the level of sectoral aggregation and to the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated to income per capita. Using a General Additive Model (GAM) with country-specific fixed-effect, we show that, controlling for countries heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income.International Trade, Specialization, Development, Generalized Additive Models

Mutamento strutturale, vantaggi comparati provinciali e complessità dei prodotti

2noopenLuca De Benedictis; Massimo TamberiDE BENEDICTIS, Luca; Massimo, Tamber

Inclusive Universities. Evidence from the Erasmus Program

The Erasmus Program is the main international mobility program in Europe and worldwide. Since its launch in 1987, it has been growing both in terms of participants and budget devoted to its activities. However, despite the possibility to obtain additional funding, the participation of students with special needs to the program remains extremely low. This work quantifies the participation of these students to Erasmus and explores the network of universities involved in their mobility, along the period 2008-2013. In addition, it proposes a novel index to measure the level of inclusiveness of universities welcoming international students with disabilities. Quantifying and analyzing this aspect could be the basis for better designing targeted policies and for widening the participation of students with impairments to international mobility.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figure

Multiple Regimes in Cross-Region Growth Regressions with Spatial Dependence: A Parametric and a Semi-parametric Approach

This paper studies the distribution dynamics of development across European regions over the period 1975-2000. Regional development is measured in terms of both per capita GDP (Y/P) and its components: labour productivity and employment ratio (that in turn can be decomposed in terms of activity and unemployment rate). The Core/Periphery pattern in the European Union is firstly investigated and a comparative analysis in terms of income, productivity, employment and unemployment rates of the two partitions is carried out. Moreover, for each variable as well as for each partition, a nonparametric beta convergence analysis is applied. Synthetically, the results confirm the lack of regional convergence in per capita incomes, the presence of a negative quasi-linear relationship between growth rates and initial levels of labour productivity and a U-shaped relationship between growth rates and initial levels of unemployment rates. As it is well known, however, b-convergence analysis does not allow any test of multiple equilibria, such as “emerging twin peaks”, in the growth process. Equilibrium multiplicity can be properly assessed by using nonparametric techniques of analysis of the cross-regional distribution. In particular, a way to quantify the intra-distribution dynamics is the multivariate kernel, which estimates the joint density of regional income, productivity and (un)employment distribution at time t0 and t0+t. The results of this analysis suggest that over the period considered the regional growth pattern in Europe has followed a polarisation process rather than a convergence path. This appears particularly true in the case of per capita incomes and unemployment rates. Finally, in order to “explain” polarisation, conditional multivariate kernels are estimated. In particular, the role of spatial contiguity and regional sectoral specialisation is investigated.