Analysis of multivariate longitudinal immuno-epidemiological data using a pairwise joint modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Immuno-epidemiologists are often faced with multivariate outcomes, measured repeatedly over time. Such data are characterised by complex inter- and intra-outcome relationships which must be accounted for during analysis. Scientific questions of interest might include determining the effect of a treatment on the evolution of all outcomes together, or grouping outcomes that change in the same way. Modelling the different outcomes separately may not be appropriate because it ignores the underlying relationships between outcomes. In such situations, a joint modelling strategy is necessary. This paper describes a pairwise joint modelling approach and discusses its benefits over more simple statistical analysis approaches, with application to data from a study of the response to BCG vaccination in the first year of life, conducted in Entebbe, Uganda. METHODS: The study aimed to determine the effect of maternal latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI) on infant immune response (TNF, IFN-γ, IL-13, IL-10, IL-5, IL-17A and IL-2 responses to PPD), following immunisation with BCG. A simple analysis ignoring the correlation structure of multivariate longitudinal data is first shown. Univariate linear mixed models are then used to describe longitudinal profiles of each outcome, and are then combined into a multivariate mixed model, specifying a joint distribution for the random effects to account for correlations between the multiple outcomes. A pairwise joint modelling approach, where all possible pairs of bivariate mixed models are fitted, is then used to obtain parameter estimates. RESULTS: Univariate and pairwise longitudinal analysis approaches are consistent in finding that LTBI had no impact on the evolution of cytokine responses to PPD. Estimates from the pairwise joint modelling approach were more precise. Major advantages of the pairwise approach include the opportunity to test for the effect of LTBI on the joint evolution of all, or groups of, outcomes and the ability to estimate association structures of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The pairwise joint modelling approach reduces the complexity of analysis of high-dimensional multivariate repeated measures, allows for proper accounting for association structures and can improve our understanding and interpretation of longitudinal immuno-epidemiological data

Infection-exposure in infancy is associated with reduced allergy-related disease in later childhood in a Ugandan cohort.

Background: Lack of early infection-exposure has been associated with increased allergy-related disease (ARD) susceptibility. In tropical Africa, little is known about which infections contribute to development of ARDs, and at which time. Methods: We used latent class analysis to characterise the early infection-exposure of participants in a Ugandan birth cohort and assessed ARDs in later childhood. Results: Of 2345 live births, 2115 children (90%) had data on infections within the first year of life while 1179 (50%) had outcome data at 9 years. We identified two latent classes of children based on first-year infection-exposure. Class 1 (32% membership), characterised by higher probabilities for malaria (80%), diarrhoea (76%), and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) (22%), was associated with lower prevalence of wheeze, eczema, rhinitis, and Dermatophagoides skin prick test (SPT) positivity at 9 years. Based on 5-year cumulative infection experience, class 1 (31% membership), characterised by higher probabilities for helminths (92%), malaria (79%), and LRTI (45%), was associated with lower probabilities of SPT positivity at 9 years. Conclusions: In this Ugandan birth cohort, early childhood infection-exposure, notably to malaria, helminths, LRTI, and diarrhoea, is associated with lower prevalence of atopy and ARDs in later childhood. Funding: This work was supported by several funding sources. The Entebbe Mother and Baby Study (EMaBS) was supported by the Wellcome Trust, UK, senior fellowships for AME (grant numbers 064693, 079110, 95778) with additional support from the UK Medical Research Council. LL is supported by a PhD fellowship through the DELTAS Africa Initiative SSACAB (grant number 107754). ELW received funding from MRC Grant Reference MR/K012126/1. SAL was supported by the PANDORA-ID-NET Consortium (EDCTP Reg/Grant RIA2016E-1609). HM was supported by the Wellcome's Institutional Strategic Support Fund (grant number 204928/Z/16/Z)

Does Intensive Treatment Select for Praziquantel Resistance in High-Transmission Settings? Parasitological Trends and Treatment Efficacy Within a Cluster-Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Praziquantel mass drug administration (MDA) is recommended in schistosomiasis-endemic areas. Animal models demonstrate Schistosoma parasite resistance to praziquantel after repeated exposure. METHODS: We conducted a parasitological survey in 26 fishing communities in Uganda after 4 years of quarterly (13 communities) or annual (13 communities) praziquantel MDA, with Schistosoma infection detected by single-stool-sample Kato-Katz. A test of cure was done in participants who were positive on both urine circulating cathodic antigen test and 3-sample Kato-Katz. We calculated cure rates (CRs) and egg reduction rates (ERRs) based on 3-sample Kato-Katz and infection intensity using worm-specific circulating anodic antigen (CAA) in blood, comparing these between quarterly and annually treated participants. RESULTS: Single-sample Kato-Katz Schistosoma mansoni prevalence was 22% in 1,056 quarterly treated participants and 34% in 1,030 annually treated participants (risk ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40 to 0.94). Among 110 test-of-cure participants, CRs were 65% and 51% in annually and quarterly treated villages, respectively (odds ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.27 to 1.58); ERRs were 94% and 81% (difference, -13%; 95% CI, -48% to 2%). There was no impact of quarterly vs annual praziquantel on S. mansoni by CAA. CONCLUSIONS: In this schistosomiasis hot spot, there was little evidence of decreased praziquantel efficacy. However, in the absence of alternative therapies, there remains a need for continued vigilance of praziquantel efficacy in the MDA era

Immune Responses Following BCG Immunization of Infants in Uganda and United Kingdom Are Similar for Purified Protein Derivative but Differ for Secretory Proteins of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Introduction: The immunogenicity of BCG vaccination in infants differs between populations. We hypothesized that prenatal exposure to mycobacterial antigens might explain the differences in immune responses to BCG seen in other studies of infants in Africa and the United Kingdom (UK) and we explored this in birth cohorts in Uganda and the UK. Materials and Methods: Blood samples were obtained from BCG-immunized infants of mothers with (n = 110) and without (n = 121) latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in Uganda and BCG-immunized infants of mothers without LTBI (n = 25) in the UK at 10 and 52 weeks after birth. Cytokine and chemokine responses to PPD were measured to assess responses to BCG immunization, and to ESAT6/CFP10 to assess exposure to or infection with M. tuberculosis or non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) in 6-day whole blood culture supernatants by a 17-plex Luminex assay. Median responses were compared between Ugandan infants (together, and separated by maternal LTBI status) and UK infants. Results: The IFN-γ response to BCG vaccination was similar between Ugandan and UK infants at 10 and 52 weeks. At week 52, TNF production was marginally higher in Ugandan infants, but after adjusting for multiple comparisons this difference was not significant. At weeks 10 and 52, stimulation of blood with ESAT6/CFP10 produced significantly higher IFN-γ, TNF, IL-12p40, IL-1α, IL-1β, IL-1Ra, IP-10, MIP-1α, MIP-1β, and GM-CSF in Ugandan compared to UK infants. Stimulation of blood with ESAT6/CFP10 produced significantly higher amounts of IL-8 (p = 0.0001), IL-10 (p = 0.0022), and IL-13 (p = 0.0020) in the UK than in Ugandan infants of mothers without LTBI at week 10, but not at week 52. Conclusions: Immune responses to mycobacterial antigens following BCG immunization are similar for PPD, but differ for ESAT6/CFP10, between infants in Uganda and the UK. Neither maternal LTBI nor infant exposure to or infection with mycobacteria impacts the response to BCG. The observed global differences in immune response to BCG immunization are likely to be due to other causes.UK Medical Research Council

Effect of birth weight, exclusive breastfeeding and growth in infancy on fat mass and fat free mass indices in early adolescence: an analysis of the Entebbe Mother and Baby Study (EMaBs) cohort

Background: There is limited data from Africa on the effect of pre- and post-natal growth and infant feeding on later body composition. This study's aim was to investigate the effect of birth weight, exclusive breastfeeding and infant growth on adolescent body composition, using data from a Ugandan birth cohort. Methods: Data was collected prenatally from pregnant women and prospectively from their resulting live offspring. Data on body composition (fat mass index [FMI] and fat free mass index [FFMI]) was collected from 10- and 11-year olds. Linear regression was used to assess the effect of birth weight, exclusive breastfeeding and infant growth on FMI and FFMI, adjusting for confounders. Results: 177 adolescents with a median age of 10.1 years were included in analysis, with mean FMI 2.9 kg/m2 (standard deviation (SD) 1.2), mean FFMI 12.8 kg/m2 (SD 1.4) and mean birth weight 3.2 kg (SD 0.5). 90 (50.9%) were male and 110 (63.2%) were exclusively breastfeeding at six weeks of age. Birth weight was associated with FMI in adolescence (regression coefficient ?= 0.66 per kg increase in birth weight, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.04, 1.29), P=0.02), while exclusive breastfeeding (?= -0.43, 95% CI (-1.06, 0.19), P=0.12), growth 0-6 months (?= 0.24 95% CI (-0.43, 0.92), P=0.48) and growth 6-12 months (?= 0.61, 95% CI (-0.23, 1.46), P=0.11) were not associated with FMI among adolescents. Birth weight (?= 0.91, 95% CI (0.17, 1.65), P=0.01) was associated with FFMI in adolescence. Exclusive breastfeeding (?= 0.17, 95% CI (-0.60, 0.94), P=0.62), growth 0-6 months (?= 0.56, 95% CI (-0.20, 1.33), P= 0.10), and growth 6-12 months (?= -0.02, 95% CI (-1.02, 0.99), P=0.97) were not associated with FFMI. Conclusions: Birth weight predicted body composition parameters in Ugandan early adolescents, however, exclusive breastfeeding at six weeks of age and growth in infancy did not

Indirect effects of COVID-19 on maternal, neonatal, child, sexual and reproductive health services in Kampala, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 impacted global maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes. We hypothesised that the early, strict lockdown that restricted individuals' movements in Uganda limited access to services. METHODS: An observational study, using routinely collected data from Electronic Medical Records, was carried out, in Kawempe district, Kampala. An interrupted time series analysis assessed the impact on maternal, neonatal, child, sexual and reproductive health services from July 2019 to December 2020. Descriptive statistics summarised the main outcomes before (July 2019-March 2020), during (April 2020-June 2020) and after the national lockdown (July 2020-December 2020). RESULTS: Between 1 July 2019 and 31 December 2020, there were 14 401 antenatal clinic, 33 499 deliveries, 111 658 childhood service and 57 174 sexual health attendances. All antenatal and vaccination services ceased in lockdown for 4 weeks.During the 3-month lockdown, the number of antenatal attendances significantly decreased and remain below pre-COVID levels (370 fewer/month). Attendances for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV dropped then stabilised. Increases during lockdown and immediately postlockdown included the number of women treated for high blood pressure, eclampsia and pre-eclampsia (218 more/month), adverse pregnancy outcomes (stillbirths, low-birth-weight and premature infant births), the rate of neonatal unit admissions, neonatal deaths and abortions. Maternal mortality remained stable. Immunisation clinic attendance declined while neonatal death rate rose (from 39 to 49/1000 livebirths). The number of children treated for pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria decreased during lockdown. CONCLUSION: The Ugandan response to COVID-19 negatively impacted maternal, child and neonatal health, with an increase seen in pregnancy complications and fetal and infant outcomes, likely due to delayed care-seeking behaviour. Decreased vaccination clinic attendance leaves a cohort of infants unprotected, affecting all vaccine-preventable diseases. Future pandemic responses must consider impacts of movement restrictions and access to preventative services to protect maternal and child health

Are birthweight and postnatal weight gain in childhood associated with blood pressure in early adolescence? Results from a Ugandan birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: In Africa, where low birthweight (LBW), malnutrition and high blood pressure (BP) are prevalent, the relationships between birthweight (BW), weight gain and BP later in life remain uncertain. We examined the effects of early life growth on BP among Ugandan adolescents. METHODS: Data were collected prenatally from women and their offspring were followed from birth, with BP measured following standard protocols in early adolescence. Weight-for-age Z-scores (WAZ) were computed using World Health Organization references. Linear regression was used to relate BW, and changes in WAZ between birth and 5 years, to adolescents' BP, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Among 2345 live offspring, BP was measured in 1119 (47.7%) adolescents, with mean systolic BP 105.9 mmHg and mean diastolic BP 65.2 mmHg. There was little evidence of association between BW and systolic [regression coefficient β = 0.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) (-1.00, 1.27)] or diastolic [β = 0.43, 95% CI (-0.57, 1.43)] BP. Accelerated weight gain between birth and 5 years was associated with increased BP: systolic β = 1.17, 95% CI (0.69, 1.66) and diastolic β = 1.03, 95% CI (0.59, 1.47). Between birth and 6 months of age, effects of accelerated weight gain on adolescent BP were strongest among the LBW (both premature and small-for-gestational-age) children [BW < 2.5 kg: β = 2.64, 95% CI (0.91, 4.37), BW≥2.5 kg: β = 0.58, 95% CI (0.01, 1.14), interaction P-value =  0.024]. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this large tropical birth cohort in Uganda suggest that postnatal weight gain rather than BW is important in the developmental programming of BP, with fast-growing LBW children at particular risk. Efforts to control BP should adopt a life course approach

Anthelminthic treatment receipt and its predictors in Lake Victoria fishing communities, Uganda: Intervention coverage results from the LaVIISWA cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) is a cornerstone of control of parasitic helminths. In schistosomiasis-endemic areas with >50% of school-aged children infected, community-wide MDA with praziquantel is recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO), with target coverage of >75%. Using data from a cluster-randomised trial of MDA treatment strategies, we aimed to describe the proportion of eligible residents who received MDA and predictors of treatment receipt, and to assess associations with helminth prevalence. METHODS: In the Koome islands of Lake Victoria, Uganda, where baseline schistosomiasis prevalence (by single stool sample, Kato Katz) was 52% overall (all ages) and 67% among school-aged children, we conducted a cluster-randomised trial of community-wide, intensive MDA (quarterly single-dose praziquantel 40mg/kg; triple-dose albendazole 400mg) versus standard, Uganda government intervention (annual single-dose praziquantel 40mg/kg; 6-monthly single-dose albendazole). Twenty-six fishing villages were randomised, 13 per trial arm, for four years. At each treatment round, praziquantel treatment and the first dose of albendazole treatment were directly observed by the study team, registers of village residents were updated and the proportion receiving treatment among those eligible recorded. RESULTS: During the four-year MDA, at each treatment round an average of 13,382 people were registered in the 26 villages (7,153 and 6,229 in standard and intensive intervention villages, respectively). Overall, the proportion of those eligible receiving praziquantel was lower than for albendazole (60% versus 65%), particularly in the standard arm (61% versus 71%) compared to the intensive arm (60% versus 62%). Albendazole receipt was lower when given concurrently with praziquantel. Absence was the commonest reason for non-receipt of treatment (81% albendazole, 77% praziquantel), followed by refusal (14% albendazole, 18% praziquantel). Proportions receiving treatment were lowest among school-aged children, but did not differ by sex. Longitudinal analysis of a subgroup of residents who did not move during the study period found that persistent non-receipt of treatment in this subgroup was rare. Refusal to receive treatment was highest among adults and more common among females. CONCLUSION: In schistosomiasis high-risk communities, a combination of approaches to increasing treatment coverage, such as extended periods of treatment delivery, and the provision of incentives, may be required to achieve WHO targets

The Impact of Intensive Versus Standard Anthelminthic Treatment on Allergy-related Outcomes, Helminth Infection Intensity, and Helminth-related Morbidity in Lake Victoria Fishing Communities, Uganda: Results From the LaVIISWA Cluster-randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of allergy-related diseases is increasing in low-income countries. Parasitic helminths, common in these settings, may be protective. We hypothesized that intensive, community-wide, anthelminthic mass drug administration (MDA) would increase allergy-related diseases, while reducing helminth-related morbidity. METHODS: In an open, cluster-randomized trial (ISRCTN47196031), we randomized 26 high-schistosomiasis-transmission fishing villages in Lake Victoria, Uganda, in a 1:1 ratio to receive community-wide intensive (quarterly single-dose praziquantel plus albendazole daily for 3 days) or standard (annual praziquantel plus 6 monthly single-dose albendazole) MDA. Primary outcomes were recent wheezing, skin prick test positivity (SPT), and allergen-specific immunoglobulin E (asIgE) after 3 years of intervention. Secondary outcomes included helminths, haemoglobin, and hepatosplenomegaly. RESULTS: The outcome survey comprised 3350 individuals. Intensive MDA had no effect on wheezing (risk ratio [RR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-1.93), SPT (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.85-1.42), or asIgE (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.82-1.12). Intensive MDA reduced Schistosoma mansoni infection intensity: the prevalence from Kato Katz examinations of single stool samples from each patient was 23% versus 39% (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55-0.88), but the urine circulating cathodic antigen test remained positive in 85% participants in both trial arms. Hookworm prevalence was 8% versus 11% (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.31-1.00). There were no differences in anemia or hepatospenomegaly between trial arms. CONCLUSIONS: Despite reductions in S. mansoni intensity and hookworm prevalence, intensive MDA had no effect on atopy, allergy-related diseases, or helminth-related pathology. This could be due to sustained low-intensity infections; thus, a causal link between helminths and allergy outcomes cannot be discounted. Intensive community-based MDA has a limited impact in high-schistosomiasis-transmission fishing communities, in the absence of other interventions. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ISRCTN47196031

Blood pressure risk factors in early adolescents: results from a Ugandan birth cohort.

We aimed to investigate life-course factors associated with blood pressure (BP) among Ugandan adolescents. Between 9th April 2003 and 24th November 2005, 2507 pregnant women from Entebbe municipality and Katabi sub-county were enrolled into a deworming trial. The resulting 2345 live-born offspring were followed to age 10 or 11 years, when between 20th May 2014 to 16th June 2016, BP was measured following standard protocols. Factors associated with BP were assessed using multivariable linear regression. BP was measured in 1119 adolescents with a median age of 10.2 years. Mean systolic BP and diastolic BP was 105.9 mmHg (standard deviation (SD) 8.2) and 65.2 mmHg (SD 7.3), respectively. Maternal gestational body mass index (BMI), higher maternal education status and family history of hypertension were positively associated with adolescent BP. Childhood (age ≤5 years) malaria was associated with lower adolescent systolic BP. Factors measured at time of BP measurement positively associated with systolic BP were age, BMI, waist circumference and Trichuris trichiura (whipworm) infection; higher vegetable consumption was associated with lower systolic BP. Results for diastolic BP were similar, except higher fruit, rather than higher vegetable consumption was associated with lower diastolic BP and there was no association with waist circumference or Trichuris trichiura infection. In summary, life-course exposures were associated with adolescent BP in this tropical birth cohort. Malaria early in life could impact later BP. Interventions initiated early in life targeting individuals with family history of hypertension, aiming to reduce adiposity (in pregnancy and adolescence) and promoting fruit and vegetable consumption might contribute to reducing the risk of high BP and subsequent cardiovascular diseases