A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon Periods

This study describes the development of a reservoir inflow forecasting model for typhoon events to improve short lead-time flood forecasting performance. To strengthen the forecasting ability of the original support vector machines (SVMs) model, the self-organizing map (SOM) is adopted to group inputs into different clusters in advance of the proposed SOM-SVM model. Two different input methods are proposed for the SVM-based forecasting method, namely, SOM-SVM1 and SOM-SVM2. The methods are applied to an actual reservoir watershed to determine the 1 to 3 h ahead inflow forecasts. For 1, 2, and 3 h ahead forecasts, improvements in mean coefficient of efficiency (MCE) due to the clusters obtained from SOM-SVM1 are 21.5%, 18.5%, and 23.0%, respectively. Furthermore, improvement in MCE for SOM-SVM2 is 20.9%, 21.2%, and 35.4%, respectively. Another SOM-SVM2 model increases the SOM-SVM1 model for 1, 2, and 3 h ahead forecasts obtained improvement increases of 0.33%, 2.25%, and 10.08%, respectively. These results show that the performance of the proposed model can provide improved forecasts of hourly inflow, especially in the proposed SOM-SVM2 model. In conclusion, the proposed model, which considers limit and higher related inputs instead of all inputs, can generate better forecasts in different clusters than are generated from the SOM process. The SOM-SVM2 model is recommended as an alternative to the original SVR (Support Vector Regression) model because of its accuracy and robustness

Analgesic Effects and the Mechanisms of Anti-Inflammation of Hispolon in Mice

Hispolon, an active ingredient in the fungi Phellinus linteus was evaluated with analgesic and anti-inflammatory effects. Treatment of male ICR mice with hispolon (10 and 20 mg/kg) significantly inhibited the numbers of acetic acid-induced writhing response. Also, our result showed that hispolon (20 mg/kg) significantly inhibited the formalin-induced pain in the later phase (P<.01). In the anti-inflammatory test, hispolon (20 mg/kg) decreased the paw edema at the fourth and fifth hour after λ-carrageenin (Carr) administration, and increased the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and glutathione reductase (GRx) in the liver tissue. We also demonstrated that hispolon significantly attenuated the malondialdehyde (MDA) level in the edema paw at the fifth hour after Carr injection. Hispolon (10 and 20 mg/kg) decreased the nitric oxide (NO) levels on both the edema paw and serum level at the fifth hour after Carr injection. Also, hispolon (10 and 20 mg/kg) diminished the serum TNF-α at the fifth hour after Carr injection. The anti-inflammatory mechanisms of hispolon might be related to the decrease in the level of MDA in the edema paw by increasing the activities of SOD, GPx and GRx in the liver. It probably exerts anti-inflammatory effects through the suppression of TNF-α and NO

Analgesic and Anti-Inflammatory Activities of the Methanol Extract from Pogostemon cablin

Pogostemon cablin (PC) is a herbal medicine traditionally applied to treat not only common cold, nausea and diarrhea but also headache and fever. The aim of this study was to investigate the analgesic and anti-inflammatory properties of standardized PC methanol extract (PCMeOH) in vivo. Investigations were performed in mice with two analgesic models. One was acetic acid-induced writhing response and the other formalin-induced paw licking. The anti-inflammatory effect was tested by λ-carrageenan (Carr)-induced mice paw edema. These analgesic experimental results indicated that PCMeOH (1.0 g/kg) decreased the acetic acid-induced writhing responses and PCMeOH (0.5 and 1.0 g/kg) decreased the licking time in the second phase of the formalin test. Moreover, Carr-induced paw edema inflammation was significantly reduced in a dose-dependent manner when PCMeOH (0.5 and 1.0 g/kg) was administered 3 and 4 h after the Carr injection. Mechanistic studies showed that PCMeOH decreased the levels of malondialdehyde in the edema paw by increasing the activities of anti-oxidant enzymes, such as superoxide dismutase, glutathione peroxidase and glutathione reductase, in the liver and decreasing the cyclooxygenase 2 and tumor necrosis factor-α activities in the edema paw. This study has demonstrated the analgesic and anti-inflammatory effects of PCMeOH, thus verifying its popular use in traditional medicine

Viral load and clinical features in children infected with seasonal influenza B in 2006/2007

Background/PurposeIn influenza B infection, viral load is believed to be related to the severity of clinical illness. The correlation between viral load and symptoms is not known. We conducted a study to assess the relationship between virus load and clinical features in children infected with influenza B, in the hope that clinical features could be used as surrogate markers of viral load to guide treatment.MethodsBetween December 2006 and February 2007, 228 patients with fever and respiratory symptoms were prospectively enrolled in our tertiary hospital-based study. Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to determine viral load.ResultsReal-time RT-PCR was positive for influenza B in 76 patients. Using virus culture as the gold standard, the sensitivity and specificity were 95% and 87%, respectively. Influenza culture positive rate significantly correlated with viral load (p = 0.03). The median copy number of influenza B virus in the 76 RT-PCR positive patients was 9735 copies/ml (range 4.8×101–2.0×106 copies/ml). Samples obtained later in the clinical course tended to have lower viral load (p = 0.7), while patient age (p = 0.72) and fever duration (p = 0.96) positively related to viral load. In patients >3 years of age, myalgia was related to statistically lower viral loads (14300 vs. 1180; p = 0.025). Patients with chills tended to have higher viral loads (72450 vs. 7640; p = 0.1). Patients with abdominal pain tended to have lower viral loads (1998 vs. 12550; p = 0.06).ConclusionCulture rate positively correlated with viral load. Patients with myalgia had a lower viral load

Influenza Pandemics: Past, Present and Future

Influenza A virus is well known for its capability for genetic changes either through antigen drift or antigen shift. Antigen shift is derived from reassortment of gene segments between viruses, and may result in an antigenically novel virus that is capable of causing a worldwide pandemic. As we trace backwards through the history of influenza pandemics, a repeating pattern can be observed, namely, a limited wave in the first year followed by global spread in the following year. In the 20th century alone, there were three overwhelming pandemics, in 1918, 1957 and 1968, caused by H1N1 (Spanish flu), H2N2 (Asian flu) and H3N2 (Hong Kong flu), respectively. In 1957 and 1968, excess mortality was noted in infants, the elderly and persons with chronic diseases, similar to what occurred during interpandemic periods. In 1918, there was one distinct peak of excess death in young adults aged between 20 and 40 years old; leukopenia and hemorrhage were prominent features. Acute pulmonary edema and hemorrhagic pneumonia contributed to rapidly lethal outcome in young adults. Autopsies disclosed multiple-organ involvement, including pericarditis, myocarditis, hepatitis and splenomegaly. These findings are, in part, consistent with clinical manifestations of human infection with avian influenza A H5N1 virus, in which reactive hemophagocytic syndrome was a characteristic pathologic finding that accounted for pancytopenia, abnormal liver function and multiple organ failure. All the elements of an impending pandemic are in place. Unless effective measures are implemented, we will likely observe a pandemic in the coming seasons. Host immune response plays a crucial role in disease caused by newly emerged influenza virus, such as the 1918 pandemic strain and the recent avian H5N1 strain. Sustained activation of lymphocytes and macrophages after infection results in massive cytokine response, thus leading to severe systemic inflammation. Further investigations into how the virus interacts with the host's immune system will be helpful in guiding future therapeutic strategies in facing influenza pandemics

Serologic Status for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus, Taiwan

We studied preexisting immunity to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in persons in Taiwan. A total of 18 (36%) of 50 elderly adults in Taiwan born before 1935 had protective antibodies against currently circulating pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus. Seasonal influenza vaccines induced antibodies that did not protect against pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus

Development and characterization of a potential diagnostic monoclonal antibody against capsid protein VP1 of the chicken anemia virus

Chicken anemia virus (CAV) is an important viral pathogen that causes anemia and severe immunodeficiency syndrome in chickens worldwide. In this study, a potential diagnostic monoclonal antibody against the CAV VP1 protein was developed which can precisely recognize the CAV antigen for diagnostic and virus recovery purposes. The VP1 gene of CAV encoding the N-terminus-deleted VP1 protein, VP1Nd129, was cloned into an Escherichia (E.) coli expression vector. After isopropyl-β-D-thiogalactopyronoside induction, VP1Nd129 protein was shown to be successfully expressed in the E. coli. By performing an enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay using two coating antigens, purified VP1Nd129 and CAV-infected liver tissue lysate, E3 monoclonal antibody (mAb) was found to have higher reactivity against VP1 protein than the other positive clones according to the result of limiting dilution method from 64 clones. Using immunohistochemistry, the presence of the VP1-specific mAb, E3, was confirmed using CAV-infected liver and thymus tissues as positive-infected samples. Additionally, CAV particle purification was also performed using an immunoaffinity column containing E3 mAb. The monoclonal E3 mAb developed in this study will not only be very useful for detecting CAV infection and performing histopathology studies of infected chickens, but may also be used to purify CAV particles in the future