Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case

Evidence of the causal long-term relationship between budget deficit, money growth and inflation in Colombia is analyzed in this paper, considering the standard (M1), the narrowest (M0-Base) and the broadest (M3) definitions of money supply. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model with quarterly data over the last 25 years, the study found a close relationship between inflation and money growth on the one hand, and between money growth and fiscal deficit, on the other. The size of the long-term parameters looks acceptable, particularly when compared to what is seen in other countries, using analogous or different techniques. The conclusion, supported by several statistical tests, is that the Sargent and Wallace hypothesis would be the most appropriate approach to understanding the dynamics of these variables.Deficit, Money supply, Inflation, Hypothesis testing. Classification JEL: H62, E51, E31, C12.

Colombia's Public Finance in the 1990s: A Decade of Reforms, Fiscal Imbalance and Debt

At the beginning of the nineties, a diversity of economic reforms were designed and implemented to reduce the size of the country's public sector with the objective of making it more efficient. Despite the reforms, ten years later, the Colombian public sector is 80% larger, and the financial sustainability of the Government presents serious problems. In 1999, Colombia's chief indicator of economic growt (GDP) was -4,3% and the unemployment rate reached 20% Such an evident dwindling of the economic activity has been accompanied rate reached 20%. Such an evident dwindling of the economic activity has been accompanied with imbalances in the macroeconomic accounts, particulary in the public sector. This paper provides a general description of Colombia's economic trends in the last few years, closely examining the factors which have undermined the country's public finances. Section II contains an overview of the fiscal imbalances registered as of the 1960s, and their relationship with both the real business cycle and the tax policy. Section III includes a synthesis of the main economic reforms introduced in the early nineties, and compares the size of the Colombian public sector with those of several neighboring countries. Section IV describes the key issues involved in the country's recent fiscal imbalance and, Section V, analyses the dynamics of the public debt and the question of its sustainability. The closing section outlines the policies for economic adjustment and reactivation currently debated in Colombia.

Fiscal policy in Colombia and a prospective analysis after the 2008 financial crisis

The purpose of this study is twofold: First, it provides an empirical characterization of fiscal policy in Colombia over the last decades, by assessing the three most relevant macroeconomic factors: the behavior of fiscal policy over the business cycle; whether it has been coherent with the long-term debt sustainability; and, whether it has been a significant source of macroeconomic volatility. The results are compared internationally. Second, it evaluates the fiscal stance of the Colombian authorities during the 2008 global financial crisis, and examines the adoption of a fiscal rule as an appropriate tool to manage public finances beyond the recovery phase.Fiscal policy, business fluctuations, banking crisis, rules vs. discretion . Classification JEL:E62, E32, G21, E69

Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Colombia

The focus of this paper is on the short-term macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia in a structural vector autoregression context. Government spending shocks are found to have positive and significant effects on output, private consumption, employment, prices and short-term interest rates. The cumulative output multiplier fluctuates between 1.12 and 1.19 from the first to third year after the spending innovation. Shocks to direct taxation seem to be less efficient, because they mainly affect private investment, whereas shocks to indirect taxation do not seem to affect real activities significantly. From a policy perspective, our results support the smoothing role of fiscal policy on output fluctuations, which implies its capacity to restore real activity effectively in critical times like the ones currently being forecast. From a theoretical standpoint, the results are consistent with real business cycle and Keynesian models of both traditional partial equilibrium and new general equilibrium types.Fiscal policy, government spending, taxation, structural vector autoregression. Classification JEL: E62, H50, H20, C32

Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience

This paper reviews the relationship between the business cycle and public finances in Colombia. The evidence shows that cyclical movements in output systematically affect the situation of public finances. Hence, the distinction between the cyclical and permanent (i.e. structural) components of the fiscal balance may allow fiscal authorities to determine the extent to which the fiscal stance in a particular year reflects their discretionary actions. Our findings indicate that the cyclical component of the central government balance in Colombia has in general been fairly small. For instance, during the recession and recovery period 1999-2003, the cyclical component attained, on average, -0,5% of the GDP which explained only 8% of the actual overall deficit. More recently in 2006, the cyclical component amounted to +0,8% of the GDP, equivalent to 17% of the actual fiscal imbalance. Governments are not usually neutral during the business cycle. Ideally, they ought to practice a counter-cyclical fiscal policy to moderate the magnitude of output fluctuations. However, in emerging economies, counter-cyclical fiscal policies are inhibited by domestic and external factors, such as credit restrictions, quality of institutions, fiscal rules, corruption, voracity effect, etc. Using a standard approach we find that fiscal policy in Colombia has been pro-cyclical over the last 45 years or so, with the primary surplus falling (and the deficit rising) as a share of GDP by approximately 1/5th of a percentage point when the output gap improves by one percentage point.Fiscal Policy, Business Cycle, Stabilization, Deficit, Budget. Classification JEL: E62; E32; E63; H62; H61.

The financial crisis effects on the colombian government fiscal stance

The Lehman Brothers crash in September 2008 marked the beginning of one of the worst years in the history of international financial markets. This event also determined the initiation of the global economic recession which will last at least three years. The data have been confirmed that virtually all industrialized and most emerging countries faced a deep recession, with serious effects on employment and poverty, so the collapse today is similar to the crisis of the thirties. This paper describe how the crisis was conceived in the financial system in the United States and spread to the rest of the industrialized economies. We also describe the transmission channels of the crisis into emerging markets and, in particular, we show the first effects on the major economies of Latin AmericaLa quiebra de Lehman Brothers en septiembre de 2008 marcó el comienzo de uno de los peores años en la historia de los mercados financieros internacionales. Este evento también determinó el inicio de la recesión económica mundial que se extenderá por lo menos tres años. Las cifras han confirmado que prácticamente todos los países industrializados, y la mayor parte de los emergentes, entraron en recesión, con graves efectos sobre el empleo y la pobreza, de manera que el colapso que hoy soporta la población mundial se asemeja a la crisis de los años treinta. Este artículo describe la forma como se gestó la crisis en el sistema financiero de los Estados Unidos y se propagó en el resto de las economías industrializadas. En esta entrega también se describen los canales de transmisión de la crisis hacia los mercados emergentes y, en particular, se muestran los primeros efectos sobre las principales economías de América Latin

Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Fiscal Policy Changes in Colombia

In the past decade the Colombian Economic Authorities undertook a series of measures that reduced the structural fiscal deficit, decreased the Government currency mismatch and deepened the local fixed-rate public bond market. This paper presents some evidence suggesting that these improvements had important effects on the behavior of the macroeconomy. They seem to have permanently reduced the sovereign risk premium, increased the reaction of output to Government expenditure shocks and strengthened the response of market interest rates to monetary policy shocks.Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy and Real Interest.

Las Transferencias Intergubernamentales y el Gasto Local en Colombia

El trabajo evalúa los determinantes del gasto público de los municipios colombianos mediante un modelo estático de escogencia pública local. Los resultados muestran que las transferencias que reciben los municipios de la nación alivian su carga fiscal y, al igual que la deuda, se constituyen en la principal fuente de expansión del gasto. Por su parte, las características socioeconómicas de las comunidades, entre las que se destacan el tamaño de la población con necesiades básicas insatisfechas y la cobertura de servicios públicos domiciliarios, juegan un papel crucial en la provisión básica de bienes públicos locales.