Predicting mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients: a retrospective cohort study

Acutely hospitalized older patients have an increased risk of mortality, but at the moment of presen- tation this risk is difficult to assess. Early identification of patients at high risk might increase the awareness of the physician, and enable tailored decision-making. Existing screening instruments mainly use either geriatric factors or severity of disease for prognostication. Predictive perfor- mance of these instruments is moderate, which hampers successive interventions. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all patients aged 70 years and over who were acutely hospitalized in the Acute Medical Unit of the Leiden University Medical Center, the Netherlands in 2012. We developed a prediction model for 90-day mor- tality that combines vital signs and laboratory test results reflecting severity of disease with geriatric factors, repre- sented by comorbidities and number of medications. Among 517 patients, 94 patients (18.2 %) died within 90 days after admission. Six predictors of mortality were included in a model for mortality: oxygen saturation, Charlson comorbidity index, thrombocytes, urea, C-reac- tive protein and non-fasting glucose. The prediction model performs satisfactorily with an 0.738 (0.667–0.798). Using this model, 53 % of the patients in the highest risk decile ( N = 51) were deceased within 90 days. In conclusion, we are able to predict 90-day mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients using a model with directly available clinical data describing disease severity and geriatric factors. After further validation, such a model might be used in clinical decision making in older patients

Clinical presentation and outcome of Tuberculosis in Human Immunodeficiency Virus infected children on anti-retroviral therapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemics are poorly controlled in sub-Saharan Africa, where highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) has become more freely available. Little is known about the clinical presentation and outcome of TB in HIV-infected children on HAART.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a comprehensive file review of all children who commenced HAART at Tygerberg Children's Hospital from January 2003 through December 2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data from 290 children were analyzed; 137 TB episodes were recorded in 136 children; 116 episodes occurred before and 21 after HAART initiation; 10 episodes were probably related to immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS). The number of TB cases per 100 patient years were 53.3 during the 9 months prior to HAART initiation, and 6.4 during post HAART follow-up [odds ratio (OR) 16.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 12.5–22.4]. A positive outcome was achieved in 97/137 (71%) episodes, 6 (4%) cases experienced no improvement, 16 (12%) died and the outcome could not be established in 18 (13%). Mortality was less in children on HAART (1/21; 4.8%) compared to those not on HAART (15/116; 12.9%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We recorded an extremely high incidence of TB among HIV-infected children, especially prior to HAART initiation. Starting HAART at an earlier stage is likely to reduce morbidity and mortality related to TB, particularly in TB-endemic areas. Management frequently deviated from standard guidelines, but outcomes in general were good.</p

The Great American Biotic Interchange: Dispersals, Tectonics, Climate, Sea Level and Holding Pens

The biotic and geologic dynamics of the Great American Biotic Interchange are reviewed and revised. Information on the Marine Isotope Stage chronology, sea level changes as well as Pliocene and Pleistocene vegetation changes in Central and northern South America add to a discussion of the role of climate in facilitating trans-isthmian exchanges. Trans-isthmian land mammal exchanges during the Pleistocene glacial intervals appear to have been promoted by the development of diverse non-tropical ecologies