The impact of birthweight on subsequent phenotype of type 2 diabetes in later life

AIMS: It is well established that low birthweight is associated with subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The aim of our study was to use a large birth cohort linked to a national diabetes registry to investigate how birthweight impacts the phenotype at diagnosis of T2DM and the subsequent rate of glycaemic deterioration. METHODS: We linked the Walker Birth Cohort (48,000 births, 1952–1966, Tayside, Scotland) to the national diabetes registry in Scotland (SCI‐Diabetes). Birthweight was adjusted for gestational age. Simple linear regression was performed to assess the impact of the adjusted birthweight on the diabetes phenotype at diagnosis. This was then built up into a multiple regression model to allow for the adjustment of confounding variables. A cox proportional hazards model was then used to evaluate the impact of birthweight on diabetes progression. RESULTS: Lower birthweights were associated with a 293 day younger age of diagnosis of T2DM per 1 kg reduction in birthweight, p = 0.005; and a 1.29 kg/m(2) lower BMI at diagnosis per 1 kg reduction in birthweight, p < 0.001. There was no significant association of birthweight on diabetes progression. CONCLUSION: For the first time, we have shown that a lower birthweight is associated with younger onset of T2DM, with those with lower birthweight also being slimmer at diagnosis. These results suggest that lower birthweight impacts on T2DM phenotype via reduced beta‐cell function rather than insulin resistance

Risk of anemia with metformin use in type 2 diabetes:A MASTERMIND study

Objective: To evaluate the association between metformin use and anemia risk in type 2 diabetes, and the time-course for this, in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) and real-world population data. Research Design and Methods: Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin measure of &lt;11 g/dL. In the RCTs A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT; n = 3,967) and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS; n = 1,473), logistic regression was used to model anemia risk and nonlinear mixed models for change in hematological parameters. In the observational Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) population (n = 3,485), discrete-time failure analysis was used to model the effect of cumulative metformin exposure on anemia risk. Results: In ADOPT, compared with sulfonylureas, the odds ratio (OR) (95% CI) for anemia was 1.93 (1.10, 3.38) for metformin and 4.18 (2.50, 7.00) for thiazolidinediones. In UKPDS, compared with diet, the OR (95% CI) was 3.40 (1.98, 5.83) for metformin, 0.96 (0.57, 1.62) for sulfonylureas, and 1.08 (0.62, 1.87) for insulin. In ADOPT, hemoglobin and hematocrit dropped after metformin initiation by 6 months, with no further decrease after 3 years. In UKPDS, hemoglobin fell by 3 years in the metformin group compared with other treatments. At years 6 and 9, hemoglobin was reduced in all treatment groups, with no greater difference seen in the metformin group. In GoDARTS, each 1 g/day of metformin use was associated with a 2% higher annual risk of anemia. Conclusions: Metformin use is associated with early risk of anemia in individuals with type 2 diabetes, a finding consistent across two RCTs and replicated in one real-world study. The mechanism for this early fall in hemoglobin is uncertain, but given the time course, is unlikely to be due to vitamin B12 deficiency alone

An omics-based machine learning approach to predict diabetes progression:a RHAPSODY study

Aims/hypothesis: People with type 2 diabetes are heterogeneous in their disease trajectory, with some progressing more quickly to insulin initiation than others. Although classical biomarkers such as age, HbA 1c and diabetes duration are associated with glycaemic progression, it is unclear how well such variables predict insulin initiation or requirement and whether newly identified markers have added predictive value. Methods: In two prospective cohort studies as part of IMI-RHAPSODY, we investigated whether clinical variables and three types of molecular markers (metabolites, lipids, proteins) can predict time to insulin requirement using different machine learning approaches (lasso, ridge, GRridge, random forest). Clinical variables included age, sex, HbA 1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. Models were run with unpenalised clinical variables (i.e. always included in the model without weights) or penalised clinical variables, or without clinical variables. Model development was performed in one cohort and the model was applied in a second cohort. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel’s C statistic. Results: Of the 585 individuals from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort, 69 required insulin during follow-up (1.0–11.4 years); of the 571 individuals in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) cohort, 175 required insulin during follow-up (0.3–11.8 years). Overall, the clinical variables and proteins were selected in the different models most often, followed by the metabolites. The most frequently selected clinical variables were HbA 1c (18 of the 36 models, 50%), age (15 models, 41.2%) and C-peptide (15 models, 41.2%). Base models (age, sex, BMI, HbA 1c) including only clinical variables performed moderately in both the DCS discovery cohort (C statistic 0.71 [95% CI 0.64, 0.79]) and the GoDARTS replication cohort (C 0.71 [95% CI 0.69, 0.75]). A more extensive model including HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide performed better in both cohorts (DCS, C 0.74 [95% CI 0.67, 0.81]; GoDARTS, C 0.73 [95% CI 0.69, 0.77]). Two proteins, lactadherin and proto-oncogene tyrosine-protein kinase receptor, were most consistently selected and slightly improved model performance. Conclusions/interpretation: Using machine learning approaches, we show that insulin requirement risk can be modestly well predicted by predominantly clinical variables. Inclusion of molecular markers improves the prognostic performance beyond that of clinical variables by up to 5%. Such prognostic models could be useful for identifying people with diabetes at high risk of progressing quickly to treatment intensification. Data availability: Summary statistics of lipidomic, proteomic and metabolomic data are available from a Shiny dashboard at https://rhapdata-app.vital-it.ch. Graphical Abstract: (Figure presented.).</p

Rates of glycaemic deterioration in a real-world population with type 2 diabetes

Aims/hypothesis: There is considerable variability in how diabetes progresses after diagnosis. Progression modelling has largely focused on 'time to failure' methods, yet determining a 'coefficient of failure' has many advantages. We derived a rate of glycaemic deterioration in type 2 diabetes, using a large real-world cohort, and aimed to investigate the clinical, biochemical, pharmacological and immunological variables associated with fast and slow rates of glycaemic deterioration. Methods: An observational cohort study was performed using the electronic medical records from participants in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Study (GoDARTS). A model was derived based on an individual's observed HbA(1c) measures from the first eligible HbA(1c) after the diagnosis of diabetes through to the study end (defined as insulin initiation, death, leaving the area or end of follow-up). Each HbA(1c) measure was time-dependently adjusted for the effects of non-insulin glucose-lowering drugs, changes in BMI and corticosteroid use. GAD antibody (GADA) positivity was defined as GAD titres above the 97.5th centile of the population distribution. Results: The mean (95% CI) glycaemic deterioration for type 2 diabetes and GADA-positive individuals was 1.4 (1.3, 1.4) and 2.8 (2.4, 3.3) mmol/mol HbA(1c) per year, respectively. A younger age of diagnosis, lower HDL-cholesterol concentration, higher BMI and earlier calendar year of diabetes diagnosis were independently associated with higher rates of glycaemic deterioration in individuals with type 2 diabetes. The rate of deterioration in those diagnosed at over 70 years of age was very low, with 66% having a rate of deterioration of less than 1.1 mmol/mol HbA(1c) per year, and only 1.5% progressing more rapidly than 4.4 mmol/mol HbA(1c) per year. Conclusions/interpretation: We have developed a novel approach for modelling the progression of diabetes in observational data across multiple drug combinations. This approach highlights how glycaemic deterioration in those diagnosed at over 70 years of age is minimal, supporting a stratified approach to diabetes management

Quality indicators for Palliative Day Services: A modified Delphi study

BACKGROUND: The goal of Palliative Day Services is to provide holistic care that contributes to the quality of life of people with life threatening-illness and their families. Quality indicators provide a means by which to describe, monitor and evaluate the quality of Palliative Day Services provision, and act as a starting point for quality improvement. However, currently, there are no published quality indicators for Palliative Day Services. AIM: To develop and provide the first set of quality indicators that describe and evaluate the quality of Palliative Day Services. DESIGN AND SETTING: A modified Delphi technique was used to combine best available research evidence derived from a systematic scoping review with multi-disciplinary expert appraisal of the appropriateness and feasibility of candidate indicators. The resulting indicators were compiled into ‘toolkit’, and tested in five UK Palliative Day Service settings. RESULTS: A panel of experts independently reviewed evidence summaries for 182 candidate indicators and provided ratings on appropriateness, followed by a panel discussion and further independent ratings of appropriateness, feasibility, and necessity. This exercise resulted in the identification of 30 indicators which were used in practice testing. The final indicator set comprised 7 structural indicators, 21 process indicators, and 2 outcome indicators. CONCLUSIONS: The indicators fulfil a previously unmet need among Palliative Day Service providers by delivering an appropriate and feasible means to assess, review, and communicate the quality of care, and to identify areas for quality improvement