A Spatial Mathematical Model Analysis of the Linkage between Agricultural Trade and Deforestation

Like agricultural trade, deforestation has increased tremendously throughout the past five decades. We analyse the linkage between both factors by applying trade and forest policy scenarios to the global land-use model MAgPIE ("Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment"). The model predicts global landuse patterns in a spatially explicit way and uses endogenously derived technological change and land expansion rates. Our study is the first which combines global trade analysis with a spatially explicit mapping of deforestation. By implementing self-sufficiency rates in the regional demand and supply equations, we are able to simulate different trade settings. Our baseline scenario fixes current trade patterns until the year 2045. The three liberalisation scenarios assume a path of increasing trade liberalisation which ends with no trade barriers in 2045 and they differ by applying different forest protection policies. Regions with comparative advantages like Latin America for oilcrops and China for cereals will export more. Whereas, Latin America will buy this competitiveness by converting large parts of its Amazonian rainforest into cropland, China will benefit most due to its decreasing food demand after 2025. In contrast, regions like the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia face the highest increases of imports. Forest protection policies lead to higher technological change rates. In absence of such policies, investments in agricultural Research & Development are the most effective way for protecting the forest.International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The Economics of Consumer Protection in Developing Countries' Food Economy: The Case of Diarrhea Prevention and Treatment in Rwanda

Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy,

Implementing Bilateral Trade in a Global Landuse Model

International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use,

The Impacts of Water Management Policies on Agricultural Production in Australia - An Economic Analysis

In the Australian Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) the combination of severe and prolonged droughts and historic water management decisions to divert water for cultivation stressed water resources in such an intensive manner that wetlands went dry and rivers are now far from a natural flow. More appropriate water management policies must be implemented to restore ecological function. However, with 39 % of Australia’s total value of agricultural production, transitions in use need to be managed to minimise economic and social impacts on basin communities while they adjust. Recent studies estimate that industries with high water usage but lower or more volatile value products will be impacted more than higher value products. Therefore, this study’s focus is to analyse different water management policies and their impacts on agricultural production, particularly changes in production of water low value and water high value crops and agricultural water consumption. By applying the Water Integrated Market (WatIM)-Model, benefits and costs of water management policies can be evaluated by identifying changes in quantities, prices and economic welfare, such as consumer and producer surplus. The WatIM-Model is a multi-market model combining water low and water high value crop markets and the water market with its supply and demand. Since the MDB is a complex system with different types of agriculture and water sharing rules in each catchment, economic variables are aggregated in the WatIMModel to examine overall trends and changes in the MDB. By the assumption that policy decisions on one market cause reactions on prices, supply and demand on other markets, market interdependencies can be derived. With these results, the merit of shifting production from water low value crops to water high value crops is examined and advantages and disadvantages of water management policies can be determined. This enables refinement of water management policies to optimise social, economic and environmental outcomes.Water market, water management policy, agriculture, sustainable water allocation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The Economics of Alternative Strategies for the Reduction of Food-borne Diseases in Developing Countries: The Case of Diarrhea in Rwanda

The paper provides a methodology which is suitable for the analysis of the social cost of disease and the benefits and cost of health intervention by integrating public health analysis and economics. The approach developed in the paper is applied to food-borne diarrhea in Rwanda. The results suggest that simple treatments such as Oral Rehydration Therapy have a higher social rate of return than consumer protection via education.public health, consumer protection, social cost, economics of food-borne diseases, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, I12, I18, Q12,

GOING EAST: EU ENLARGEMENT TO CENTRAL EUROPE, AND THE AGENDA 2000

International Relations/Trade,

Social rate of return to plant breeding research in Germany

This article focuses on the social rate of return to plant breeding investment in Germany between 1980-2000. Starting point of the analysis is the development of total factor productivity which is decomposed into the effects of factor input and research investment. Information on investment in plant breeding have been obtained via questionnaires sent to both private plant breeding companies and public research organizations. The empirical results suggest significant underinvestment in German plant breeding research, as the calculated social rate of return is in the range of 16 to 28%.agricultural research, plant breeding investment, social rate of return, Public Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

The economics of alternative strategies for the reduction of food-borne diseases in developing countries: The case of diarrhea in Rwanda

The paper provides a methodology which is suitable for the analysis of the social cost of disease and the benefits and cost of health intervention by integrating public health analysis and economics. The approach developed in the paper is applied to food-borne diarrhea in Rwanda. The results suggest that simple treatments such as Oral Rehydration Therapy have a higher social rate of return than consumer protection via education

How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change

In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system

Cereal and oilseed production in Finland under different socioeconomic scenarios until 2050: an analysis with models of two different scales

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