Prognostic value of antigen expression in multiple myeloma: a PETHEMA/GEM study on 1,265 patients enrolled in four consecutive clinical trials

Persistence of minimal residual disease (MRD) after treatment for myeloma predicts inferior outcomes, but within MRD-positive patients there is great heterogeneity with both early and very late relapses. Among different MRD techniques, flow cytometry provides additional information about antigen expression on tumor cells, which could potentially contribute to stratify MRD-positive patients. We investigated the prognostic value of those antigens required to monitor MRD in 1265 newly diagnosed patients enrolled in the GEM2000, GEM2005MENOS65, GEM2005MAS65 and GEM2010MAS65 protocols. Overall, CD19pos, CD27neg, CD38lo, CD45pos, CD81pos, CD117neg and CD138lo expression predicted inferior outcomes. Through principal component analysis, we found that simultaneous CD38lowCD81posCD117neg expression emerged as the most powerful combination with independent prognostic value for progression-free survival (HR:1.69; P=0.002). This unique phenotypic profile retained prognostic value among MRD-positive patients. We then used next-generation flow to determine antigen stability throughout the course of the disease, and found that the expression of antigens required to monitor MRD is mostly stable from diagnosis to MRD stages, except for CD81 whose expression progressively increased from baseline to chemoresistant tumor cells (14 vs 28%). Altogether, we showed that the phenotypic profile of tumor cells provides additional prognostic information, and could be used to further predict risk of relapse among MRD-positive patients

Prognostic value of serum paraprotein response kinetics in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

Introduction Response kinetics is a well-established prognostic marker in acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The situation is not clear in multiple myeloma (MM) despite having a biomarker for response monitoring (monoclonal component [MC]). Materials and Methods We developed a mathematical model to assess the prognostic value of serum MC response kinetics during 6 induction cycles, in 373 NDMM transplanted patients treated in the GEM2012Menos65 clinical trial. The model calculated a “resistance” parameter that reflects the stagnation in the response after an initial descent. Results Two patient subgroups were defined based on low and high resistance, that respectively captured sensitive and refractory kinetics, with progression-free survival (PFS) at 5 years of 72% and 59% (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.44-0.93; P = .02). Resistance significantly correlated with depth of response measured after consolidation (80.9% CR and 68.4% minimal residual disease negativity in patients with sensitive vs. 31% and 20% in those with refractory kinetics). Furthermore, it modulated the impact of reaching CR after consolidation; thus, within CR patients those with refractory kinetics had significantly shorter PFS than those with sensitive kinetics (median 54 months vs. NR; P = .02). Minimal residual disease negativity abrogated this effect. Our study also questions the benefit of rapid responders compared to late responders (5-year PFS 59.7% vs. 76.5%, respectively [P < .002]). Of note, 85% of patients considered as late responders were classified as having sensitive kinetics. Conclusion This semi-mechanistic modeling of M-component kinetics could be of great value to identify patients at risk of early treatment failure, who may benefit from early rescue intervention strategies