Installment 2 of "Creating a Sustainable Food Future": Reducing Food Loss and Waste

Approximately one out of every four calories grown to feed people is not ultimately consumed by humans. Food is lost and wasted to a varying extent across the globe, across all stages of the food value chain, and across all types of food. As a result, overall global food availability is lower than it would be otherwise, negatively affecting food security and requiring the planet's agriculture system to produce additional food to compensate for the food that is not ultimately consumed by people. The potential benefits of reducing food loss and waste are large. As a strategy for closing the food gap between food available today and food needed in 2050 to adequately feed the planet's projected 9.3 billion people, reducing food loss and waste satisfies each of the development and environmental criteria we introduced in the first installment of the Creating a Sustainable Food Future series. While increasing food availability, reducing food loss and waste can alleviate poverty and provide gender benefits while reducing pressure on ecosystems, climate, and water. Reducing food loss and waste may be one of those rare multiple "win-win" strategies.How can the world go about reducing food loss and waste on a large scale? This installment of the forthcoming "World Resources Report Creating a Sustainable Food Future" addresses that question. This working paper, which will feed into that report, begins by clarifying definitions of food loss and waste, then quantifies the scale of the problem and explores the impact addressing the problem could have on the food gap. The paper then focuses on practical solutions for reducing food loss and waste and presents case studies of successful initiatives. It concludes by offering recommendations for how to scale up reductions in food loss and waste

Bayesian imputation of COVID-19 positive test counts for nowcasting under reporting lag

Obtaining up to date information on the number of UK COVID-19 regional infections is hampered by the reporting lag in positive test results for people with COVID-19 symptoms. In the UK, for "Pillar 2" swab tests for those showing symptoms, it can take up to five days for results to be collated. We make use of the stability of the under reporting process over time to motivate a statistical temporal model that infers the final total count given the partial count information as it arrives. We adopt a Bayesian approach that provides for subjective priors on parameters and a hierarchical structure for an underlying latent intensity process for the infection counts. This results in a smoothed time-series representation now-casting the expected number of daily counts of positive tests with uncertainty bands that can be used to aid decision making. Inference is performed using sequential Monte Carlo

Bayesian imputation of COVID-19 positive test counts for nowcasting under reporting lag

Obtaining up to date information on the number of UK COVID-19 regional infections is hampered by the reporting lag in positive test results for people with COVID-19 symptoms. In the UK, for ‘Pillar 2’ swab tests for those showing symptoms, it can take up to five days for results to be collated. We make use of the stability of the under reporting process over time to motivate a statistical temporal model that infers the final total count given the partial count information as it arrives. We adopt a Bayesian approach that provides for subjective priors on parameters and a hierarchical structure for an underlying latent intensity process for the infection counts. This results in a smoothed time-series representation nowcasting the expected number of daily counts of positive tests with uncertainty bands that can be used to aid decision making. Inference is performed using sequential Monte Carlo

Local level estimates of food, drink and tobacco expenditure for Great Britain

We present expenditure estimates for 106 product categories across Great Britain for the years 2008–2016. Estimates are at the Local Authority District level (n = 380) and the categories cover all food, drink and tobacco commodities. Reliable, local level expenditure estimates are crucial for understanding broader market trends, assessing economic stability and for projections. This is especially important for commodities such as alcohol, tobacco and unhealthy foods due to their role in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. There has been relatively little research into local area spatial patterns of expenditure, with existing estimates often of insufficient resolution for informing planning decisions. We use spatial microsimulation to create an archive of expenditure datasets. This was achieved by linking socio-demographic foundations with detailed datasets on individual expenditure. Whilst initially developed to aid investigations into sociodemographic trends in the meat industry, the data have reuse potential in a number of disciplines, including public health, economics, retail geography and environmental management. The framework could be applied to other regions with appropriate data

The roles of intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety sensitivity and distress tolerance in hoarding disorder compared with OCD and healthy controls

Background: It is suggested that the different psychological vulnerability factors of intolerance of uncertainty (IU), anxiety sensitivity (AS) and distress tolerance (DT) may be in important in hoarding disorder (HD). However, the extent to which these factors are specific to HD compared with other disorders remains unclear. Aims: The current study aimed to investigate differences in IU, AS and DT in three groups: HD (n=66), obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD; n=59) and healthy controls (HCs; n=63). Method: Participants completed an online battery of standardised self-report measures to establish the independent variable of group membership (HD, OCD and HC) and the dependent variables (IU, AS and DT). Results: A MANOVA analysis indicated statistically significant differences in IU, AS and DT between the clinical groups and HCs. Follow-up analyses showed no statistically significant differences between the HD and OCD group for any of the three constructs. The results remained the same when examining the effects of co-morbid HD and OCD. An unexpected finding was the trend for IU, AS and DT to be more severe when HD and OCD were co-morbid. Conclusions: The evidence suggests the absence of a specific relationship between IU, AS or DT in HD and instead is consistent with existing research which suggests that these psychological vulnerability factors are transdiagnostic constructs across anxiety disorders. The implications of the findings are discussed

What is underneath all that stuff? A Q-methodological exploration of profiles of beliefs and vulnerabilities in Hoarding Disorder

Background: Hoarding disorder (HD) can be understood through the cognitive behavioural model in the context of vulnerability factors (for example, personality traits, co-morbidities, traumatic life events) and beliefs about possessions (for example, identity, emotional attachment, memory, utility). Less is known about the strength of these hypothesised beliefs, or how they interact within the hoarding population, with researchers suggesting that specifying beliefs would improve treatment outcomes. Aim: The current study explored beliefs in HD, utilising Q-methodology to explore both categories of beliefs and the interactions between these. Moreover, Q-methodology allowed for comparison of the individuals endorsing specific categories of beliefs. Method: A comprehensive list of beliefs about possessions was developed. Thirty-two adults with clinically significant levels of HD completed a Q-sort task, alongside measures of proposed vulnerabilities, including co-morbidity, trauma and attachment style. Results: Q-factor analysis produced four profiles consisting of groups of participants who endorsed the same beliefs and had shared characteristics: (1) ‘Expression of identity’, (2) ‘Responsibility and morality’, (3) ‘Stability and predictability’, and (4) ‘Objects as emotional and meaningful beings’. Discussion: The profiles were distinguished by different categories of beliefs and co-morbid symptoms, suggesting that more targeted assessment tools and interventions would be beneficial to account for this heterogeneity within the clinical population. In particular, beliefs about identity and self-concept formed the largest profile, and beliefs about stability and predictability introduce a novel category of beliefs.</p

Using a global positioning system to measure tidal currents in Absecon Inlet, Atlantic City, NJ

Journal of Surveying Engineering-Asce, 133(4): pp. 179-183.As a permit requirement for the development of a marina within Absecon Inlet, Atlantic City, NJ, tidal current measurements were required. Maximum ebb and flood currents determine the forces to which the structural elements of the marina will be subjected as well as sediment transport patterns near the marina. Currents also influence the maneuverability of small craft attempting to enter or exit the marina. Consequently, current velocities and directions during maximum ebb and flood tides (spring tides) were measured on 10 March 2005 in the vicinity of the proposed marina using the Global Positioning System (GPS). The location of the proposed marina in the inlet is shown in Figure 1. Current patterns are affected by the presence of Clam Creek (on southwest side of the study area) and the Route 87 Bridge over the inlet. The marina site is also subject to locally generated wind waves as well as waves entering the inlet from the Atlantic Ocean