Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events

This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic events and evaluate them by taking into account policy makers’ preferences between false alarms and missing signals. Our results highlight the importance of considering jointly various indicators in a multivariate framework. We find that taking into account jointly domestic and global macrofinancial vulnerabilities greatly improves the performance of discrete choice models in forecasting systemic events. Our framework shows a good out-of-sample performance in predicting the last financial crisis. Finally, our model would have issued an early warning signal for the United States in 2006 Q2, 5 quarters before the emergence of money markets tensions in August 2007. JEL Classification: E44, E58, F01, F37, G01Asset Price Booms and Busts, Early Warning Indicators, Financial stress, Macro-Prudential Policies

Macro-financial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events

This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic events and evaluate them by taking into account policy makers’ preferences between false alarms and missing signals. Our results highlight the importance of considering jointly various indicators in a multivariate framework. We find that taking into account jointly domestic and global macrofinancial vulnerabilities greatly improves the performance of discrete choice models in forecasting systemic events. Our framework shows a good out-of-sample performance in predicting the last financial crisis. Finally, our model would have issued an early warning signal for the United States in 2006 Q2, 5 quarters before the emergence of money markets tensions in August 2007

Mobile underwater sensor networks for protection and security: field experience at the UAN11 experiment

The EU-funded project UAN (Underwater Acoustic Network) was aimed at conceiving, developing, and testing at sea an innovative and operational concept for integrating underwater and above-water sensors in a unique communication system to protect offshore and coastline critical infrastructures. This work gives details on the underwater part of the project. It introduces a set of original security features and gives details on the integration of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) as mobile nodes of the network and as surveillance assets, acoustically controlled by the command and control center to respond against intrusions. Field results are given of the final UAN project sea trial, UAN11, held in May 2011 in Norway. During the experimental activities, a UAN composed of four fixed nodes, two AUVs, and one mobile node mounted on the supporting research vessel was operated continuously and integrated into a global protection system. In this article, the communication performance of the network is reported in terms of round-trip time, packet loss, and average delivery ratio. The major results of the experiment can be thus summarized: the implemented network structure was successful in continuously operating over five days with nodes seamlessly entering and exiting the network; the performance of the network varied greatly with fluctuations in the acoustic channel; the addition of security features induced a minor degradation in network performance with respect to channel variation; the AUVs were successfully controlled from a remote station through acoustic signals routed by the network

The cultivable bacterial microbiota associated to the medicinal plant Origanum vulgare L.: from antibiotic resistance to growth-inhibitory properties

The insurgence of antibiotic resistance and emergence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens prioritize research to discover new antimicrobials. In this context, medicinal plants produce bioactive compounds of pharmacological interest: some extracts have antimicrobial properties that can contrast different pathogens. For such a purpose, Origanum vulgare L. (Lamiaceae family) is a medicinal aromatic plant, whose essential oil (EO) is recognized for its antiseptic, antimicrobial and antiviral activities. The cultivable bacteria from different compartments (i.e., flower, leaf, stem and soil) were isolated in order to: (i) characterize the bacterial microbiota associated to the plant, determining the forces responsible for the structuring of its composition (by evaluation of cross inhibition); (ii) investigate if bacterial endophytes demonstrate antimicrobial activities against human pathogens. A pool of plants belonging to O. vulgare species was collected and the specimen chemotype was defined by hydrodistillation of its essential oil. The isolation of plant associated bacteria was performed from the four compartments. Microbiota was further characterized through a culture-independent approach and next-generation sequencing analysis, as well. Isolates were molecularly typed by Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) profiling and taxonomically assigned by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Antibiotic resistance profiles of isolates and pairwise cross-inhibition of isolates on agar plates (i.e., antagonistic interactions) were also assessed. High level of diversity of bacterial isolates was detected at both genus and strain level in all different compartments. Most strains were tolerant against common antibiotics; moreover, they produced antagonistic patterns of interactions mainly with strains from different compartments with respect to that of original isolation. Strains that exhibited high inhibitory properties were further tested against human pathogens, revealing a strong capacity to inhibit the growth of strains resistant to several antibiotics. In conclusion, this study regarded the characterization of O. vulgare L. chemotype and of the bacterial communities associated to this medicinal plant, also allowing the evaluation of antibiotic resistance and antagonistic interactions. This study provided the bases for further analyses on the possible involvement of endophytic bacteria in the production of antimicrobial molecules that could have an important role in clinical and therapeutic applications

Effective Regge QCD

A new framework for a high energy limit of quantum gauge field theories is introduced. Its potency is illustrated on a new derivation of the reggeization of the gluon.Comment: Latex, 9 pages + 2 figures as PS-file, extended version, to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Rapidity gaps and production of minijets in high-energy hadronic collisions

High energy hadronic interactions can produce a final state characterized by minijets separated by a large gap in the rapidity distribution of the produced secondary particles. We discuss the process by keeping into account the possibility of having multiple parton collisions in the hadronic interaction. At Tevatron energy the correction to the single scattering term induced by the presence of multiparton interactions is large for transverse momenta smaller than 6 GeV.Comment: 29 pages, TeX file, 2 figures which are now include