Focal Points, Endogenous Processes, and Exogenous Shocks in the Autism Epidemic

Autism prevalence has increased rapidly in the United States during the past two decades. We have previously shown that the diffusion of information about autism through spatially proximate social relations has contributed significantly to the epidemic. This study expands on this finding by identifying the focal points for interaction that drive the proximity effect on subsequent diagnoses. We then consider how diffusion dynamics through interaction at critical focal points, in tandem with exogenous shocks, could have shaped the spatial dynamics of autism in California. We achieve these goals through an empirically calibrated simulation model of the whole population of 3- to 9-year-olds in California. We show that in the absence of interaction at these foci—principally malls and schools—we would not observe an autism epidemic. We also explore the idea that epigenetic changes affecting one generation in the distal past could shape the precise spatial patterns we observe among the next generation

Spatial clusters of autism births and diagnoses point to contextual drivers of increased prevalence

Autism prevalence has risen dramatically over the past two decades in California. Although often suggested to have been crucial to the rise of autism, environmental and social contextual drivers of diagnosis have not been extensively examined. Identifying the spatial patterning of autism cases at birth and at diagnosis can help clarify which contextual drivers are affecting autism's rising prevalence. Children with autism not co-morbid with mental retardation served by the California Department of Developmental Services during the period 1992–2005 were matched to California's Birth Master Files. We search for spatial clusters of autism at time of birth and at time of diagnosis using a spatial scan approach that controls for key individual-level risk factors. We then test whether indicators of neighborhood-level diagnostic resources are associated with the diagnostic clusters and assess the extent of clustering by autism symptom severity through a multivariate scan. Finally, we test whether children who move into neighborhoods with higher levels of resources are more likely to receive an autism diagnosis relative to those who do not move with regard to resources. Significant birth and diagnostic clusters of autism are observed independent of key individual-level risk factors. While the clusters overlap, there is a strong positive association between the diagnostic clusters and neighborhood-level diagnostic resources. In addition, children with autism who are higher functioning are more likely to be diagnosed within a cluster than children with autism who are lower functioning. Most importantly, children who move into a neighborhood with more diagnostic resources than their previous residence are more likely to subsequently receive an autism diagnosis than children whose neighborhood resources do not change. We identify birth and diagnostic clusters of autism in California that are independent of individual-level autism risk factors. Our findings implicate a causal relationship between neighborhood-level diagnostic resources and spatial patterns of autism incidence but do not rule out the possibility that environmental toxicants have also contributed to autism risk

The Spatial Structure of Autism in California, 1993-2001

This article identifies significant high-risk clusters of autism based on residence at birth in California for children born from 1993 to 2001. These clusters are geographically stable. Children born in a primary cluster are at four times greater risk for autism than children living in other parts of the state. This is comparable to the difference between males and females and twice the risk estimated for maternal age over 40. In every year roughly 3% of the new caseload of autism in California arises from the primary cluster we identify-a small zone 20 km by 50 km. We identify a set of secondary clusters that support the existence of the primary clusters. The identification of robust spatial clusters indicates that autism does not arise from a global treatment and indicates that important drivers of increased autism prevalence are located at the local level

The Population Level Impacts of Differential Fertility Behavior of Parents of Children with Autism

Drawing on population level data of exceptional quality (including detailed diagnostic information on the autism status of sibling pairs of over 3 million different mothers), this study confirms that stoppage is the average fertility response to a child born with autism, thereby reducing observed concordance in sibling pairs and leading to potentially biased estimation of genetic contributions to autism etiology. Using a counterfactual framework and applying matching techniques we show, however, that this average effect is composed of very different responses to suspicion of autism depending on birth cohort, the character of the disorder (severe versus less severe), the gender of the child, poverty status, and parental education. This study also sheds light on when parents suspect autism. We find that parents’ fertility behavior changes relative to matched controls very early after the birth of a child who will later be diagnosed with autism

Can Sibling Sex Ratios Be Used as a Valid Test for the Prenatal Androgen Hypothesis of Autism Spectrum Disorders?

Sibling sex ratios have been applied as an indirect test of a hypothesized association between prenatal testosterone levels and risk for autism, a developmental disorder disproportionately affecting males. Differences in sibling sex ratios between those with and without autism would provide evidence of a shared risk factor for autism and offspring sex. Conclusions related to prenatal testosterone, however, require additional assumptions. Here, we used directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to clarify the elements required for a valid test of the hypothesis that sibling sex ratios differ between children with and without autism. We then conducted such a test using a large, population-based sample of children

Cohort effects explain the increase in autism diagnosis among children born from 1992 to 2003 in California

The incidence and prevalence of autism have dramatically increased over the last 20 years. Decomposition of autism incidence rates into age, period and cohort effects disentangle underlying domains of causal factors linked to time trends. We estimate an age-period-cohort effect model for autism diagnostic incidence overall and by level of functioning

An Informal Internet Survey on the Current State of Consciousness Science

The scientific study of consciousness emerged as an organized field of research only a few decades ago. As empirical results have begun to enhance our understanding of consciousness, it is important to find out whether other factors, such as funding for consciousness research and status of consciousness scientists, provide a suitable environment for the field to grow and develop sustainably. We conducted an online survey on people's views regarding various aspects of the scientific study of consciousness as a field of research. 249 participants completed the survey, among which 80% were in academia, and around 40% were experts in consciousness research. Topics covered include the progress made by the field, funding for consciousness research, job opportunities for consciousness researchers, and the scientific rigor of the work done by researchers in the field. The majority of respondents (78%) indicated that scientific research on consciousness has been making progress. However, most participants perceived obtaining funding and getting a job in the field of consciousness research as more difficult than in other subfields of neuroscience. Overall, work done in consciousness research was perceived to be less rigorous than other neuroscience subfields, but this perceived lack of rigor was not related to the perceived difficulty in finding jobs and obtaining funding. Lastly, we found that, overall, the global workspace theory was perceived to be the most promising (around 28%), while most non-expert researchers (around 22% of non-experts) found the integrated information theory (IIT) most promising. We believe the survey results provide an interesting picture of current opinions from scientists and researchers about the progresses made and the challenges faced by consciousness research as an independent field. They will inspire collective reflection on the future directions regarding funding and job opportunities for the field

An Informal Internet Survey on the Current State of Consciousness Science

The scientific study of consciousness emerged as an organized field of research only a few decades ago. As empirical results have begun to enhance our understanding of consciousness, it is important to find out whether other factors, such as funding for consciousness research and status of consciousness scientists, provide a suitable environment for the field to grow and develop sustainably. We conducted an online survey on people’s views regarding various aspects of the scientific study of consciousness as a field of research. 249 participants completed the survey, among which 80% were in academia, and around 40% were experts in consciousness research. Topics covered include the progress made by the field, funding for consciousness research, job opportunities for consciousness researchers, and the scientific rigor of the work done by researchers in the field. The majority of respondents (78%) indicated that scientific research on consciousness has been making progress. However, most participants perceived obtaining funding and getting a job in the field of consciousness research as more difficult than in other subfields of neuroscience. Overall, work done in consciousness research was perceived to be less rigorous than other neuroscience subfields, but this perceived lack of rigor was not related to the perceived difficulty in finding jobs and obtaining funding. Lastly, we found that, overall, the global workspace theory was perceived to be the most promising (around 28%), while most non-expert researchers (around 22% of non-experts) found the integrated information theory (IIT) most promising. We believe the survey results provide an interesting picture of current opinions from scientists and researchers about the progresses made and the challenges faced by consciousness research as an independent field. They will inspire collective reflection on the future directions regarding funding and job opportunities for the field

To Compare is to Despair? A Population-Wide Study of Neighborhood Composition and Suicide in Stockholm.

Neighborhood context can change the effect of a socio-demographic attribute on the risk of suicide. Eight hypotheses about the interactions between neighborhood composition, ethnicity, income, and socially disadvantaged propositions are proposed based on social support, social comparison, and social regulation mechanisms. They are tested with a population-based dataset of all adults (1.4 million) who lived in the greater Stockholm area in the 1990s. On one hand, multilevel analysis shows that suicide risk increases with the level of affluence in one's neighborhood, particularly among individuals with low income. This supports the notion that income comparison can have negative consequences. On the other hand, social welfare recipients are less likely to commit suicide when there are other social welfare recipients in the neighborhood. Suicide risk among immigrants deceases with the proportion of co-ethnics in the neighborhood, confirming previous findings on social support and suicide. However, further analyses show that the protection effect of having co-ethnic neighbors is limited to immigrants from countries with low suicide rates. This study shows that administrative data can be used to examine neighborhood effects on rare outcomes. The findings are relevant to the contemporary trends towards rising income inequality and ethnic diversity