Reporte Estabilidad Financiera - Primer Semestre de 2020

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governo

Financial Stability Report - Second Semester of 2020

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governo

Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera - II semestre 2022

Banco de la República’s main goal is to preserve the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy that is intended to stabilize output and employment at long-term sustainable levels. Properly meeting the goal assigned to the Bank by the 1991 Constitution critically depends on preserving financial stability. This is understood to be a general condition in which the financial system evaluates and manages the financial risks in a way that facilitates the suitable performance of the economy and efficient allocation of resources while, at the same time, it is able to absorb, dissipate, and mitigate the appearance of risks that may arise as a result of adverse events. This Financial Stability Report meets the goal of giving Banco de la República’s diagnosis of the financial system’s and its debtors’ recent performance as well as of the main risks and vulnerabilities that could affect the stability of the Colombian economy. The Report is intended to inform the public and the participants in the financial markets about the trends and risks affecting the system and it also intends to promote public debate on this subject. The results presented here also serve as a basis for the monetary authority to assess the effects and risks of monetary policy at the current situation and to adopt measures under its purview to promote financial stability. The analysis presented in this edition of the Report leads to the conclusion that there has been a strong credit trend in Colombia in the last few months that is consistent with the strength of economic activity. Credit continues to grow (in all its categories and especially in consumer loans) while past-due and risky loans continue to decline for the aggregate portfolio. In general terms, the favorable performance of credit establishments (CIs) in a context of tighter financial conditions and greater volatility in financial markets continues to reflect the soundness and stability of the Colombian financial system. In spite of exhibiting a recent decline, CIs are keeping liquidity and capital adequacy indicators well above the regulatory minimums. Its aggregate profitability, in turn, returned to the levels seen before the pandemic shock and showed a positive performance in financial intermediation activities. With respect to non-bank financial institutions, the recent volatility of the financial markets has led to reductions in their level of assets due to the devaluations in their investment portfolios. This has been reflected mainly in reduced profitability for Trust Companies (TC) and Pension Fund Managers (PFM). In line with the positive performance of economic activity in 2021 and so far in 2022, the rapid surge in household loans in Colombia, especially consumer loans together with the high levels of household debt to disposable income ratio is still considered a source of vulnerability for the stability of the Colombian financial system just as it was in the previous edition of this Report (see section 2.2.2). In addition, given the large current account deficit and the foreign financing needs, the exposure of the Colombian economy and financial institutions to changes in financial conditions persists in a global environment of high uncertainty. In any case, the results presented in this Report indicate that the financial system has shown to be resilient to the materialization of adverse scenarios (see Chapter 3). In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the financial stability outlook at this juncture and will make the necessary decisions to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the sufficient flow of credit and liquidity resources, and promote the smooth functioning of the payment system. Box 1: Insurance Industry Performance During the Covid-19 Pandemic - Financial Stability Report, Second Half of 2022. Gualtero-Briceño, Daniela and Pirateque-Niño, Javier Eliecer Box 2: Recent Trends in the Financial Position of Households - Financial Stability Report, Second Half of 2022. Gómez-Molina, Andrés Camilo; Mariño-Martínez, Juan Sebastián and Osorio-Rodríguez, Daniel Box 3: A Description of the Foreign Exchange Risk of Real Sector Firms in Colombia in 2021 - Financial Stability Report, Second Half of 2022. Carmona-Duarte, Alvaro; Martinez-Osorio, Adrian and Niño-Cuervo, Jorge Jorge Niñ