Parameterization of basal friction near grounding lines in a one-dimensional ice sheet model

Ice sheets and ice shelves are linked by the transition zone, the region where flow dominated by vertical shear stress makes a transition to flow dominated by extensional stress. Adequate resolution of the transition zone is necessary for numerically accurate ice sheet–ice shelf simulations. The required resolution depends on how the basal physics is parameterized. We propose a~new, simple parameterization of the effective pressure near the grounding line, combined with an existing friction law linking effective pressure to basal stress and sliding, in a one-dimensional, fixed-grid, vertically integrated model. This parameterization represents connectivity between the basal hydrological system and the ocean in the transition zone. Our model produces a smooth transition between finite basal friction in the ice sheet and zero basal friction in the ice shelf. In a set of experiments based on the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP), we show that with a smoother basal shear stress, the model yields accurate steady-state results at a fixed-grid resolution of ~1 km

Aggregating expert judgement

In a paper written some 25 years ago, I distinguished three contexts in which one might wish to combine expert judgements of uncertainty: the expert problem, the group decision problem and the textbook problem. Over the intervening years much has been written on the first two, which have the focus of a single decision context, but little on the third, though the closely related field of meta-analysis has developed considerably. With many developments in internet technology, particularly in relation to interactivity and communication, the textbook problem is gaining in importance since data and expert judgements can be made available over the web to be used by many different individuals to shape their own beliefs in many different contexts. Moreover, applications such as web-based decision support, e-participation and e-democracy are making algorithmic ‘solutions’ to the group decision problem attractive, despite many results showing we know that such solutions are, at best, rare and, at worst, illusory. In this paper I survey developments since my earlier paper and note some unresolved issues. Then I turn to how expert judgement might be used within web-based group decision support, as well as in e-participation and e-democracy contexts. The latter points to a growing importance of the textbook problem and suggests that Cooke’s principles for scientific reporting of expert judgement studies may need enhancing for such studies to be used by a wider audience