Yield Curve Estimation by Kernel Smoothing Methods

We introduce a new method for the estimation of discount functions, yield curves and forward curves from government issued coupon bonds. Our approach is nonparametric and does not assume a particular functional form for the discount function although we do show how to impose various restrictions in the estimation. Our method is based on kernel smoothing and is defined as the minimum of some localized population moment condition. The solution to the sample problem is not explicit and our estimation procedure is iterative, rather like the backfitting method of estimating additive nonparametric models. We establish the asymptotic normality of our methods using the asymptotic representation of our estimator as an infinite series with declining coefficients. The rate of convergence is standard for one dimensional nonparametric regression. We investigate the finite sample performance of our method, in comparison with other well-established methods, in a small simulation experiment.

On Time Trend of COVID-19: A Panel Data Study

In this paper, we study the trending behaviour of COVID-19 data at country level, and draw attention to some existing econometric tools which are potentially helpful to understand the trend better in future studies. In our empirical study, we find that European countries overall flatten the curves more effectively compared to the other regions, while Asia & Oceania also achieve some success, but the situations are not as optimistic as in Europe. Africa and America are still facing serious challenges in terms of managing the spread of the virus and reducing the death rate. In Africa, the rate of the spread of the virus is slower and the death rate is also lower than those of the other regions. By comparing the performances of different countries, our results on the performance of different countries in managing the speed of the virus agree with Gu et al. (2020). For example, both studies agree that countries such as USA, UK and Italy perform relatively poorly; on the other hand, Australia, China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore perform relatively better

The Dynamic Evolution of Solar Wind Streams Following Interchange Reconnection

Interchange reconnection is thought to play an important role in determining the dynamics and material composition of the slow solar wind that originates from near coronal hole boundaries. To explore the implications of this process we simulate the dynamic evolution of a solar wind stream along a newly-opened magnetic flux tube. The initial condition is composed of a piecewise continuous dynamic equilibrium in which the regions above and below the reconnection site are extracted from steady-state solutions along open and closed field lines. The initial discontinuity at the reconnection site is highly unstable and evolves as a Riemann problem, decomposing into an outward-propagating shock and inward-propagating rarefaction that eventually develop into a classic N-wave configuration. This configuration ultimately propagates into the heliosphere as a coherent structure and the entire system eventually settles to a quasi-steady wind solution. In addition to simulating the fluid evolution we also calculate the time-dependent non-equilibrium ionization of oxygen in real time in order to construct in situ diagnostics of the conditions near the reconnection site. This idealized description of the plasma dynamics along a newly-opened magnetic field line provides a baseline for predicting and interpreting the implications of interchange reconnection for the slow solar wind. Notably, the density and velocity within the expanding N-wave are generally enhanced over the ambient wind, as is the O7+/O6+ ionization ratio, which exhibits a discontinuity across the reconnection site that is transported by the flow and arrives later than the propagating N-wave

Trinquer avec son ennemi

Publié originalement (en anglais) dans le Globe and Mail, le 19 juil., 2000Version anglais dans la bibliothèque: Drinking (water) with your enem

A pharmacological network for lifespan extension in Caenorhabditis elegans

One goal of aging research is to find drugs that delay the onset of age-associated disease. Studies in invertebrates, particularly Caenorhabditis elegans, have uncovered numerous genes involved in aging, many conserved in mammals. However, which of these encode proteins suitable for drug targeting is unknown. To investigate this question, we screened a library of compounds with known mammalian pharmacology for compounds that increase C. elegans lifespan. We identified 60 compounds that increase longevity in C. elegans, 33 of which also increased resistance to oxidative stress. Many of these compounds are drugs approved for human use. Enhanced resistance to oxidative stress was associated primarily with compounds that target receptors for biogenic amines, such as dopamine or serotonin. A pharmacological network constructed with these data reveal that lifespan extension and increased stress resistance cluster together in a few pharmacological classes, most involved in intercellular signaling. These studies identify compounds that can now be explored for beneficial effects on aging in mammals, as well as tools that can be used to further investigate the mechanisms underlying aging in C. elegans

The context-dependent, combinatorial logic of BMP signaling

Cell-cell communication systems typically comprise families of ligand and receptor variants that function together in combinations. Pathway activation depends in a complex way on which ligands are present and what receptors are expressed by the signal-receiving cell. To understand the combinatorial logic of such a system, we systematically measured pairwise Bone Morphogenetic Protein (BMP) ligand interactions in cells with varying receptor expression. Ligands could be classified into equivalence groups based on their profile of positive and negative synergies with other ligands. These groups varied with receptor expression, explaining how ligands can functionally replace each other in one context but not another. Context-dependent combinatorial interactions could be explained by a biochemical model based on competitive formation of alternative signaling complexes with distinct activities. Together, these results provide insights into the roles of BMP combinations in developmental and therapeutic contexts and establish a framework for analyzing other combinatorial, context-dependent signaling systems

Patchy Reconnection in a Y-Type Current Sheet

We study the evolution of the magnetic field in a Y-type current sheet subject to a brief, localized magnetic reconnection event. The reconnection produces up- and down-flowing reconnected flux tubes which rapidly decelerate when they hit the Y-lines and underlying magnetic arcade loops at the ends of the current sheet. This localized reconnection outflow followed by a rapid deceleration reproduces the observed behavior of post-CME downflowing coronal voids. These simulations support the hypothesis that these observed coronal downflows are the retraction of magnetic fields reconnected in localized patches in the high corona.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

The context-dependent, combinatorial logic of BMP signaling

Cell-cell communication systems typically comprise families of ligand and receptor variants that function together in combinations. Pathway activation depends in a complex way on which ligands are present and what receptors are expressed by the signal-receiving cell. To understand the combinatorial logic of such a system, we systematically measured pairwise Bone Morphogenetic Protein (BMP) ligand interactions in cells with varying receptor expression. Ligands could be classified into equivalence groups based on their profile of positive and negative synergies with other ligands. These groups varied with receptor expression, explaining how ligands can functionally replace each other in one context but not another. Context-dependent combinatorial interactions could be explained by a biochemical model based on competitive formation of alternative signaling complexes with distinct activities. Together, these results provide insights into the roles of BMP combinations in developmental and therapeutic contexts and establish a framework for analyzing other combinatorial, context-dependent signaling systems

Ligand-receptor promiscuity enables cellular addressing

In multicellular organisms, secreted ligands selectively activate, or "address," specific target cell populations to control cell fate decision-making and other processes. Key cell-cell communication pathways use multiple promiscuously interacting ligands and receptors, provoking the question of how addressing specificity can emerge from molecular promiscuity. To investigate this issue, we developed a general mathematical modeling framework based on the bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) pathway architecture. We find that promiscuously interacting ligand-receptor systems allow a small number of ligands, acting in combinations, to address a larger number of individual cell types, each defined by its receptor expression profile. Promiscuous systems outperform seemingly more specific one-to-one signaling architectures in addressing capacity. Combinatorial addressing extends to groups of cell types, is robust to receptor expression noise, grows more powerful with increasing receptor multiplicity, and is maximized by specific biochemical parameter relationships. Together, these results identify fundamental design principles governing cell addressing by ligand combinations