A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?

We examine the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. We find no evidence that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate Research Corporation?s quarterly Real Estate Investment Survey are useful in forecasting subsequent return performance. In fact, we document that RERC?s surveys are backward looking. The implications of these findings for investors are discussed.

Tax Reform and Housing

Current tax law provides tax advantages to owner-occupied housing that increase with a household's income. This well understood fact has led to periodic proposals to substitute a tax credit equal to, say, 25 percent of housing-related expenses for their current deductibility. Because all of the tax reforms considered in this paper (Hall-Rabushka, Kemp-Kasten and Bradley-Gephardt) move toward a flat rate schedule, they all will sharply reduce the tax-advantages of owner-occupied housing to higher income households relative to lower income households. In fact, our analysis suggests that all reforms will lower the price of obtaining housing services from owner-occupied housing for these households and raise it for higher-income households. The "breakeven" income at which the price of these housing services would be unchanged is about $55,000 for Kemp-Kasten and Hall-Rabushka probably$10,000 less for Bradley-Gephardt. The price of renting housing should rise under all reforms, probably by 5 to 10 percent. In combination with the decline in the price of obtaining housing services for middle and lower income households, this should give a signficant boost to homeownership. Under Kemp-Kasten, ownership rates will rise for four-member households with AGI (as renters) of under $60,000; for higher income households ownership could decline marginally. The breakeven income level is roughly$40,000 for Bradley-Gephardt and $35,000 or Hall-Rabushka.

Trading and the Tax Shelter Value of Depreciable Real Estate

For well-diversified investors in depreciable real estate, the trading decision may be made with the sole objective of maximizing the property's depreciation tax shelter net of all capital gain taxes and transaction costs.This paper develops a dynamic programming model in which the optimal trading strategies and depreciation methods of all investors in a property are simultaneously determined. The effects of inflation, depreciation, recapture and choice of depreciation method are analyzed, and the costs of suboptimal trading are measured. The model is applied to both conventional residential and commercial income properties under post-ERTA tax rules. At single digitinflation rates, properties are traded multiple times, and the costs of suboptimal trading are significant.

The Administration Tax Reform Proposal and Housing

This paper estimates the likely impact of the Administration tax reform plan on housing. Our analysis incorporates two general equilibrium impacts -- a one percentage point decline in the level of interest rates and a decrease in the property tax rate on principal residences -- and corrects errors regarding discount rates and refinancing in the basic rental model. A 7 percent increase in market rents (11 percent without the decline in interest rates) is projected. Consideration of the individual components of the Administration plan suggests that the only significant negative provisionis the cut in the personal tax rate from 0.53 (including a 6 percent state and local rate deductible at the Federal level) to 0.41. Without this cut (and the decline in interest rates which is largely attributable to the cut), market rents would fall by 6 percent. Rents rise only because rental housing is a negatively taxed asset in the sense that a tax cut lowers the supply of the asset.The general-equilibriwn effects will offset the negative direct effects -- the cut in marginal tax rates and loss of deductibility of property taxes -- on owner-occupied housing in the aggregate. However, this housing will generally be cheaper for households with incomes below $40,000 -- especially below$25,000 -- but will be more expensive for those with incomes above $60,000.This constitutes an improvement in both efficiency and equity because under current law the price of owner housing services is far lower for high income households than for low income households. Homeownership rates should increase by 2 to 3 percentage points for households with incomes below$40,000 and 1 to 2 percentage points in the aggregate.

Prospective Changes in Tax Law and the Value of Depreciable Real Estate

The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 significantly reduced the taxation of income-producing properties by accelerating tax depreciation on both new and, especially, existing properties. A partial reversal of the 1981 legislation appears likely. To provide some insight into the possible effects of a decrease in tax depreciation of income-producing properties, two potential tax changes are analyzed: an increase from 15 to 20 years in the tax service lives of both new and existing properties and an increase for existing properties only. Both residential and commercial/industrial properties are considered.

Relative Entropy and Holography

Relative entropy between two states in the same Hilbert space is a fundamental statistical measure of the distance between these states. Relative entropy is always positive and increasing with the system size. Interestingly, for two states which are infinitesimally different to each other, vanishing of relative entropy gives a powerful equation $\Delta S=\Delta H$ for the first order variation of the entanglement entropy $\Delta S$ and the expectation value of the \modu Hamiltonian $\Delta H$. We evaluate relative entropy between the vacuum and other states for spherical regions in the AdS/CFT framework. We check that the relevant equations and inequalities hold for a large class of states, giving a strong support to the holographic entropy formula. We elaborate on potential uses of the equation $\Delta S=\Delta H$ for vacuum state tomography and obtain modified versions of the Bekenstein bound.Comment: 75 pages, 3 figures, added reference

Real Estate and the Tax Reform Act of 1986

In contrast to the conventional wisdom, real estate activity in the aggregate is not disfavored by the 1986 Tax Act. Within the broad aggregate, however, widely different impacts are to be expected. Regular rental and commercial activity will be slightly disfavored, while historic and old rehabilitation activity will be greatly disfavored. In contrast, owner- occupied housing, far and away the largest component of real estate, is favored, both directly by an interest rate decline and indirectly owing to the increase in rents. Low-income rental housing may be the most favored of all real estate activities. The rent increase for residential properties will be 10 to 15 percent with our assumption of a percentage point decline in interest rates. For commercial properties, the expected rent increase is 5 to 10 percent. The market value decline, which will be greater the longer and further investors think rents will be below the new equilibrium, is unlikely to exceed 4 percent in fast growth markets, even if substantial excess capacity currently exists. In no-growth markets with substantial excess capacity, market values could decline by as much as 8 percent from already depressed levels. Average housing costs will decrease slightly for households with incomes below about $60,000, but increase by 5 percent for those with incomes above twice this level. With the projected increase in rents, homeownership should rise for all income classes, but especially for those with income under$60,000. The aggregate home ownership rate is projected to increase by three percentage points in the long run in response to the Tax Act. The new passive loss limitations are likely to lower significantly the values of recent loss-motivated partnership deals and of properties in areas where the economics have turned sour (vacancy rates have risen sharply). The limitations should have little impact on new construction and market rents, however. Reduced depreciation write-offs, lower interest rates, and higher rents all act to lower expected passive losses. Moreover, financing can be restructured to include equity-kickers or less debt generally at little loss of value.

Understanding the Real Estate Provisions of Tax Reform: Motivation and Impact

Capital investment tax provisions have been changed numerous times in the last decade, with depreciation tax lives shortened in 1981 and lengthened ever since and capital gains taxation reduced in 1978 and 1981 and now increased. The first part of this paper analyzes these changes and attributes a large part of them, including the 1986 Tax Act, to changes in inflation: tax depreciation schedules and capital gains taxation that look reasonable when the tax depreciation base is being eroded at ten percent a year and an overwhelming share of capital gains is pure inflation take on a different appearance when inflation is only four percent. The remainder of the paper critiques the typical project model used to compute impacts of tax changes on real estate and report simulation results using a modified model.

Homeownership Rates of Married Couples: An Econometric Investigation

Ownership patterns for young (under 45) married couples are striking in two respects. First, ownership rates rise dramatically with age: couples 35- 44 consistently have ownership rates nearly 50 percentage points higher than couples under 25. Second, half of the sharp ownership gains of young married couples in the 1970s were reversed in the first half of the 1980s. These patterns do not hold either for single or other households or for married couples over 44. To increase understanding of this variability by age and over time, we analyze the tenure behavior of young married couples using aggregate income/age-class data from the 1973-83 Annual (American) Housing Surveys (AHS). The income of a household affects its tenure choice both directly (the taste for ownership rises with income) and indirectly (the cost of owning declines as income rises owing to the greater value of investment in a nontaxed asset for investors in higher tax brackets). Age affects tenure choice because older households have higher incomes, are less mobile (annual-equivalent transactions costs are lower), have more wealth (portfolio diversification for owner- occupiers is easier), and have more certain income (and are thus more willing to commit to ownership). Price and income elasticities for tenure choice are computed, the rise in ownership rates between 1973 and 1979 and the subsequent decline are interpreted, and an impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 is predicted.