Evaluation of Risk Management Methods for Satsuma Mandarin

Simulation of production budgets were used to compare net discounted returns and the distribution of returns under alternative risk-mitigation scenarios. Results indicate that the combination of freeze protection and crop insurance increases expected net discounted 20-year returns while decreasing the downside risk. Break-even prices ranged from $.257 to$.289 per pound. Crop insurance returns were constant across price.Satsuma oranges, freeze protection, crop insurance, production budget, simulation, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty, C63, D81, Q12,

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Economic evaluation of protection against freezes in Satsuma mandarin production

This dissertation consists of three essays that evaluate the effect of freeze-risk reduction techniques on discounted net returns for Satsuma mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.) in the northern Gulf Coast region of the United States. In all studies, enterprise budgets are simulated over a 20-year investment horizon. Mean and distribution of net returns, and break-even prices are used to compare risk reduction methods. The first essay evaluates the effect of multi-peril crop insurance and freeze protection with micro-sprinkler irrigation on discounted net returns for one-acre grove units. Using weather data from the period 1948-2004, freeze occurrence probabilities for the Fairhope, Alabama area were calculated to be 14-percent for severe freeze and 11-percent for moderate freeze. Freeze protection in combination with crop insurance resulted in the highest mean and lowest variability in net return at market prices above break even. Increased yields and net returns due to freeze protection were attributed to the elimination of the need to replant after a severe freeze. Government subsidy for crop insurance premiums increased total discounted net returns; and indemnities lowered the distribution of negative net returns for the 20-year simulation period. In the second essay, micro-sprinkler and high tunnel technologies for freeze protection are compared to no protection for 10-acre Satsuma groves in the Fairhope, AL area. Micro-sprinkler technology eliminates the tree loss, but not crop loss, due to freezes. High tunnel technology eliminates the loss of either trees or crop for any freeze event. Relative to the high tunnel groves, average yield over the 20-year period was reduced by 25-percent for micro-sprinkler irrigated groves and 53-percent for unprotected groves. The high tunnel strategy was preferred to the micro-sprinkler protection only at market prices above $0.83 per pound. In the third essay, net returns for groves with micro-sprinkler and high tunnel technologies were compared to no protection at varying freeze probability levels. With severe freeze probability levels of 5-percent and greater, net returns for micro-sprinkler groves were greater than for unprotected groves. At a market price of$0.50 per pound, high tunnel groves had greater mean net returns than the micro-sprinkler technology only when total freeze events exceeded 50-percent

Evaluation of Risk Management Methods for Satsuma Mandarin

Simulation of production budgets were used to compare net discounted returns and the distribution of returns under alternative risk-mitigation scenarios. Results indicate that the combination of freeze protection and crop insurance increases expected net discounted 20-year returns while decreasing the downside risk. Break-even prices ranged from $.257 to$.289 per pound. Crop insurance returns were constant across price

Marine turtles of the African east coast: current knowledge and priorities for conservation and research

International audienceAlthough published literature regarding the 5 species of marine turtle found along the continental African east coast has grown substantially over the last decades, a comprehensive synthesis of their status and ecology is lacking. Using a mixed methods approach, which combined an exhaustive literature review and expert elicitation, we assessed the distribution and magnitude of nesting, foraging areas, connectivity, and anthropogenic threats for these species in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, and South Africa. A complex pattern of nesting sites, foraging areas, and migration pathways emerged that identified areas of high importance in all 5 countries, although significant data gaps remain, especially for Somalia. Illegal take, bycatch, and loss of foraging and nesting habitat were identified as the most serious anthropogenic threats. Although these threats are broadly similar along most of the coast, robust data that enable quantification of the impacts are scarce. Experts identified regional strengths and opportunities, as well as impediments to turtle conservation. Topics such as legislation and enforcement, collaboration, local stakeholders, and funding are discussed, and future directions suggested. Given the projected growth in human population along the continental African east coast and expected accompanying development, anthropogenic pressures on turtle populations are set to increase. Stronger regional collaboration and coordination within conservation and research efforts are needed if current and future challenges are to be tackled effectively