Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches

Background: The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Results: The process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models. Conclusion: Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person

Discovery of Aspergillus frankstonensis sp. nov. during environmental sampling for animal and human fungal pathogens

Invasive fungal infections, IFI, due to species in Aspergillus section Fumigati, ASF, including the Aspergillus viridinutans species complex, AVSC, are increasingly reported in humans and cats. The risk of exposure to these medically important fungi in Australia is unknown. Air and soil was sampled from the domiciles of pet cats diagnosed with these IFI and from a nature reserve in Frankston, Victoria, where Aspergillus viridinutans sensu stricto was discovered in, . Of, ASF species isolated, were A. fumigatus sensu stricto, were AVSC, A. felis-clade and A. frankstonensis sp. nov., and, were other species, . Seven pathogenic ASF species known to cause disease in humans and animals, A. felis-clade, A. fischeri, A. thermomutatus, A. lentulus, A. laciniosus A. fumisynnematus, A. hiratsukae, comprised, of isolates overall. AVSC species were only isolated from Frankston soil where they were abundant, suggesting a particular ecological niche. Phylogenetic, morphological and metabolomic analyses of these isolates identified a new species, A. frankstonensis that is phylogenetically distinct from other AVSC species, heterothallic and produces a unique array of extrolites, including the UV spectrum characterized compounds DOLD, RAIMO and CALBO. Shared morphological and physiological characteristics with other AVSC species include slow sporulation, optimal growth at, ÊC, no growth at, ÊC, and viriditoxin production. Overall, the risk of environmental exposure to pathogenic species in ASF in Australia appears to be high, but there was no evidence of direct environmental exposure to AVSC species in areas where humans and cats cohabitate.Jessica J. Talbot, Jos Houbraken, Jens C. Frisvad, Robert A. Samson, Sarah E. Kidd, John Pitt, Sue Lindsay, Julia A. Beatty, Vanessa R. Barr

Geomagnetic storm dependence on the solar flare class

Content. Solar flares are often used as precursors of geomagnetic storms. In particular, Howard and Tappin (2005) recently published in A&A a dependence between X-ray class of solar flares and Ap and Dst indexes of geomagnetic storms which contradicts to early published results. Aims. We compare published results on flare-storm dependences and discuss possible sources of the discrepancy. Methods. We analyze following sources of difference: (1) different intervals of observations, (2) different statistics and (3) different methods of event identification and comparison. Results. Our analysis shows that magnitude of geomagnetic storms is likely to be independent on X-ray class of solar flares.Comment: 3 pages, 1 tabl

Reconstructing the 3-D Trajectories of CMEs in the Inner Heliosphere

A method for the full three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction of the trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) data is presented. Four CMEs that were simultaneously observed by the inner and outer coronagraphs (COR1 and 2) of the Ahead and Behind STEREO satellites were analysed. These observations were used to derive CME trajectories in 3-D out to ~15Rsun. The reconstructions using COR1/2 data support a radial propagation model. Assuming pseudo-radial propagation at large distances from the Sun (15-240Rsun), the CME positions were extrapolated into the Heliospheric Imager (HI) field-of-view. We estimated the CME velocities in the different fields-of-view. It was found that CMEs slower than the solar wind were accelerated, while CMEs faster than the solar wind were decelerated, with both tending to the solar wind velocity.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 1 appendi

Structure and reactivity of Trypanosoma brucei pteridine reductase: inhibition by the archetypal antifolate methotrexate

The protozoan Trypanosoma brucei has a functional pteridine reductase (TbPTR1), an NADPH-dependent short-chain reductase that participates in the salvage of pterins, which are essential for parasite growth. PTR1 displays broad-spectrum activity with pterins and folates, provides a metabolic bypass for inhibition of the trypanosomatid dihydrofolate reductase and therefore compromises the use of antifolates for treatment of trypanosomiasis. Catalytic properties of recombinant TbPTR1 and inhibition by the archetypal antifolate methotrexate have been characterized and the crystal structure of the ternary complex with cofactor NADP(+) and the inhibitor determined at 2.2 Å resolution. This enzyme shares 50% amino acid sequence identity with Leishmania major PTR1 (LmPTR1) and comparisons show that the architecture of the cofactor binding site, and the catalytic centre are highly conserved, as are most interactions with the inhibitor. However, specific amino acid differences, in particular the placement of Trp221 at the side of the active site, and adjustment of the β6-α6 loop and α6 helix at one side of the substrate-binding cleft significantly reduce the size of the substrate binding site of TbPTR1 and alter the chemical properties compared with LmPTR1. A reactive Cys168, within the active site cleft, in conjunction with the C-terminus carboxyl group and His267 of a partner subunit forms a triad similar to the catalytic component of cysteine proteases. TbPTR1 therefore offers novel structural features to exploit in the search for inhibitors of therapeutic value against African trypanosomiasis

Effectiveness of recovered magnesium phosphates as fertilizers in neutral and slightly alkaline soils

Magnesium phosphates such as struvite (MgNH4PO4 · 6H2O) can be recovered from municipal, industrial, and agricultural wastewaters. However, limited information is available on the beneficial reuse of these recovered products; research has focused on low pH soils. Th is study determined whether recovered struvite and dittmarite (MgNH4PO4 · H2O) were effective P fertilizers in neutral to slightly alkaline soils. In addition to commercially available triple superphosphate (TSP) and certified organic rock phosphate (RP), recovered struvite, dittmarite, and a heterogeneous recovered phosphate were evaluated in a laboratory dissolution study and as fertilizers for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in a greenhouse study. Struvite and dittmarite were much more soluble than RP, but less soluble than TSP. Laboratory dissolution kinetics were fast, with most materials nearing equilibrium within 7 to 14 d. At a soil pH of 6.5, both dittmarite and struvite increased the average plant P concentration over the control. Struvite and dittmarite performance was similar to TSP. There were no significant differences in plant dry matter (DM) production or total P uptake at pH 6.5. In the limed soil (pH 7.6), many treatments had plant P concentrations significantly lower than the control, but most fertilizers increased DM production over the control; all fertilizers generally performed similarly to one another. These findings support previous work showing recovered Mg phosphates to be effective in acidic soils, and provide evidence that they are also effective in slightly alkaline soils. Recovered Mg phosphates could become a useful alternative for P fertilization in arid and semiarid environments

The strategic calculus of terrorism: Substitution and competition in the Israel—Palestine conflict

Previous work on the dynamics of conflicts where we see terrorism has tended to focus on whether we see shifts in attack mode following government countermeasures. We contend that many factors other than counterinsurgency can influence whether groups resort to terrorism, including competition between groups, as well as their relationship to public opinion and other political events. Hence, understanding terrorist tactics in prolonged conflicts with multiple actors requires us to consider a more general framework of innovation, imitation, competition and dependence between actors. We use disaggregated data on terrorist attacks, counterterrorism and public opinion in the Israel—Palestine conflict to jointly evaluate predictions derived from several conventional theories of strategic behaviour. We find that the strategic calculus of Palestinian groups is complex and cannot be treated as time invariant. Our results suggest that factors such as the degree of public support, inter-group competition, the anticipation of countermeasures and non-trivial non-violent payoffs have an observable effect on the strategic behaviour of the Palestinian groups, and that structural relationships are often far from constant over time. </jats:p

4pi Models of CMEs and ICMEs

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which dynamically connect the solar surface to the far reaches of interplanetary space, represent a major anifestation of solar activity. They are not only of principal interest but also play a pivotal role in the context of space weather predictions. The steady improvement of both numerical methods and computational resources during recent years has allowed for the creation of increasingly realistic models of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), which can now be compared to high-quality observational data from various space-bound missions. This review discusses existing models of CMEs, characterizing them by scientific aim and scope, CME initiation method, and physical effects included, thereby stressing the importance of fully 3-D ('4pi') spatial coverage.Comment: 14 pages plus references. Comments welcome. Accepted for publication in Solar Physics (SUN-360 topical issue

A synthesis of evidence for the effects of interventions to conserve peatland vegetation: Overview and critical discussion

Peatlandsare valuable but threatenedecosystems. Intervention to tackle direct threats is often necessary, but should be informed by scientific evidence to ensure it is effective and efficient. Herewe discuss a recent synthesis of evidence for the effects of interventions to conserve peatland vegetation -a fundamental component of healthy, functioning peatland ecosystems. The synthesis is unique in its broad scope (global evidence for a comprehensive list of 125 interventions) and practitioner-focused outputs (short narrative summaries in plain English, integrated into a searchable online database). Systematicliteraturesearches, supplemented by recommendationsfrom an international advisory board, identified162 publications containing 296 distinct tests of 66 of the interventions. Most of the articles studiedopen bogs or fens in Europe or North America. Only 36 interventions weresupported by sufficient evidence to assess their overall effectiveness. Mostof these interventions(85%) hadpositiveeffects, overall,on peatland vegetation-although this figure is likelyto have beeninflated by publication bias. We discuss how to use the synthesis, critically,to informconservation decisions.Reflecting on the content of the synthesiswe make suggestions for the future of peatland conservation,from monitoring overappropriate timeframes to routinely publishing resultsto build up the evidence base.MAVA, Arcadi