Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector

There is plenty of evidence that growth has a negative relation to fertility and dependency ratios. Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent based simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth and population path is provoked into a fertility trap by rising relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.low fertility trap; social norms relative income; economic growth

Study achievement for students with kids

In this paper we explore the composition of students, the study length towards diploma, and examine the likelihood of diploma, all with respect to parenthood. Few get children while enrolled in higher education, nevertheless one fourth of female university students in Sweden has children. In Sweden as in many other countries enrollment periods have been prolonged and allocated to later parts of life. Using a large longitudinal register micro data set containing educational achievement we find that students with children seem to be somewhat more efficient in their studies among those who have graduated. Becoming parent speeds up ongoing studies but not studies that are initiated after entry into parenthood. We also find an indication that students with children have a lower dropout rate since their probability to register a diploma is higher, compared to students without children.Students; parenthood; education; study interruption

Study achievement for students with kids

In this paper we explore the composition of students, the study length towards diploma, and examine the likelihood of diploma, all with respect to parenthood. Few get children while enrolled in higher education, nevertheless one fourth of female university students in Sweden has children. In Sweden as in many other countries enrollment periods have been prolonged and allocated to later parts of life. Using a large longitudinal register micro data set containing educational achievement we find that students with children seem to be somewhat more efficient in their studies among those who have graduated. Becoming parent speeds up ongoing studies but not studies that are initiated after entry into parenthood. We also find an indication that students with children have a lower dropout rate since their probability to register a diploma is higher, compared to students without children.Students; parenthood; education; study interruption

Intergenerational public and private sector redistribution in Sweden 2003

We describe intergenerational redistribution in Sweden the year 2003. The high Swedish tax ratio of around 50-60 percent of GDP per capita is partly explained by every individual getting a lot back in terms of transfers and part in government consumption. Another reason is that most transfers are taxed, which results in double counting some tax payments. Here we attempt to correct the age profile of net tax payment for these effects and compare these to the gross profiles. On a per capita basis we find, using this netting, that the mean age of tax payers drops from 55 to 48 and that the taxes paid falls by 23.2 percent. We also look at age profiles of private and public consumption, and net private consumption, i.e., the difference between private disposable income and private consumption. We find that private net redistribution flows mainly from middle and old age to young ages, while net public transfers flow to both young and old.Intergenerational; redistribution

Low fertility and long-run growth in an economy with a large public sector

Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent-based simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth and population path is calibrated to Swedish data using the Swedish social policy setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.Il a été suggéré récemment que les pays à basse fécondité pourraient être victimes d’un piège dont ils auraient du mal à se dégager. Un mécanisme essentiel dans ce piège serait l’interaction sociale et son effet sur la taille idéale de famille. Des mécanismes de ce type sont difficiles à représenter dans un modèle formel, et c’est pourquoi nous avons eu recours à un modèle de simulation multi-agents pour explorer le processus. Dans notre dispositif expérimental, un modèle de croissance et de population stable est calibré aux données suédoises, en utilisant la configuration suédoise de politique sociale. Le modèle est entraîné dans un piège de fécondité en élevant les coûts relatifs de l’enfant en lien avec la croissance positive. Dans ce cas, même des augmentations importantes des prestations familiales sont insuffisantes pour sortir du piège. Toutefois, le petit nombre d’enfants permet temporairement à l’économie de croître plus rapidement pendant quelques décennies. L’arrêt de l’adaptation aux normes sociales conduit à une neutralisation du piège

Conscious access and complexity of visual features

Imagine you are in your car driving to meet a friend at a restaurant you have never been to before. As an experienced driver, you don’t need to deliberately direct your gaze. Instead, your attention is automatically drawn to crossings far off in the distance, other moving vehicles, and relevant road signs. Without having to assert effort, your brain suppresses details in your immediate surroundings to enhance relevant information. When you arrive at the restaurant, you swiftly search through the crowd of strangers, assessing whether everyone is your friend within a fraction of a second. Your brain effortlessly evaluates each person with templates in your memory, first on crude features such as hair colour or height, and for anyone who fits these criteria, assessment is carried out on finer facial features. With our ability to use logical inferences based on experience we build templates of a target, which we use to efficiently scan through our environment. Regardless of how mundane this everyday task might seem; its completion requires several fundamental computational problems to be overcome. When driving a car and when searching a crowded room, you need to selectively enhance and suppress visual information, as processing all information equally is an inefficient use of resources. It can take several hundred milliseconds to fully process a complex natural scene (Kar et al., 2019), meaning that the processing of several visual objects must be happening in parallel. To add to this complexity, humans are continuously updating their goals (first, search for the bar across the whole room, then search for a person at the bar) based on information we are gaining within each moment. In this dissertation, I will address how the brain organizes information into categories, how items that are processed in parallel can interfere with each other, and at what levels of processing these interferences occur

Making Likelihood Ratios Digestible for Cross-Application Performance Assessment

Performance estimation is crucial to the assessment of novel algorithms and systems. In detection error tradeoff (DET) diagrams, discrimination performance is solely assessed targeting one application, where cross-application performance considers risks resulting from decisions, depending on application constraints. For the purpose of interchangeability of research results across different application constraints, we propose to augment DET curves by depicting systems regarding their support of security and convenience levels. Therefore, application policies are aggregated into levels based on verbal likelihood ratio scales, providing an easy to use concept for business-to-business communication to denote operative thresholds. We supply a reference implementation in Python, an exemplary performance assessment on synthetic score distributions, and a fine-tuning scheme for Bayes decision thresholds, when decision policies are bounded rather than fi

The outcome of an automated assessment of trabecular pattern in intraoral radiographs as a fracture risk predictor

Objectives: This study aims to investigate if automated analyses of the trabecular pattern in intraoral radiographs independently contribute to fracture risk assessment when other risk factors incorporated in the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) are taken into account. A secondary aim is to explore the correlation between the automated trabecular pattern assessment in intraoral radiographs and Trabecular Bone Score (TBS). Methods: A total of 567 intraoral radiographs from older females participating in a large population-based study (SUPERB) based in Gothenburg, Sweden, were selected to analyse trabecular pattern using semi-automated and fully automated software. Associations between trabecular pattern analysis and incident fractures were studied using Cox proportional hazard model, unadjusted and adjusted for FRAX risk factors (previous fracture, family history of hip fracture, smoking, corticosteroids, rheumatoid arthritis, without and with bone mineral density (BMD) of the femoral neck). In addition, the correlation between trabecular pattern analysis and TBS of the lumbar spine was investigated using Pearson correlation analysis. Results: Neither the unadjusted nor the adjusted trabecular pattern analysis in intraoral radiographs was significantly associated with any fracture or major osteoporotic fracture (MOF). A weak correlation was found between semi-automated trabecular pattern analysis and TBS. No correlation was found between the fully automated trabecular pattern analysis and TBS. Conclusions: The present study shows that semi-automated and fully automated digital analyses of the trabecular pattern in intraoral radiographs do not contribute to fracture risk prediction. Furthermore, the study shows a weak correlation between semi-automated trabecular pattern analysis and TBS

Half-lives of PFOS, PFHxS and PFOA after end of exposure to contaminated drinking water.

BACKGROUND: Municipal drinking water contaminated with perfluorinated alkyl acids had been distributed to one-third of households in Ronneby, Sweden. The source was firefighting foam used in a nearby airfield since the mid-1980s. Clean water was provided from 16 December 2013. OBJECTIVE: To determine the rates of decline in serum perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), and their corresponding half-lives. METHODS: Up to seven blood samples were collected between June 2014 and September 2016 from 106 participants (age 4-84 years, 53% female). RESULTS: Median initial serum concentrations were PFHxS, 277 ng/mL (range 12-1660); PFOS, 345 ng/mL (range 24-1500); and PFOA, 18 ng/mL (range 2.4-92). The covariate-adjusted average rates of decrease in serum were PFHxS, 13% per year (95% CI 12% to 15%); PFOS, 20% per year (95% CI 19% to 22%); and PFOA, 26% per year (95% CI 24% to 28%). The observed data are consistent with a first-order elimination model. The mean estimated half-life was 5.3 years (95% CI 4.6 to 6.0) for PFHxS, 3.4 years (95% CI 3.1 to 3.7) for PFOS and 2.7 years (95% CI 2.5 to 2.9) for PFOA. The interindividual variation of half-life was around threefold when comparing the 5th and 95th percentiles. There was a marked sex difference with more rapid elimination in women for PFHxS and PFOS, but only marginally for PFOA. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated half-life for PFHxS was considerably longer than for PFOS and PFOA. For PFHxS and PFOS, the average half-life is shorter than the previously published estimates. For PFOA the half-life is in line with the range of published estimates

Effects of wastewater treatment plant effluent inputs on planktonic metabolic rates and microbial community composition in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is the world's largest area suffering from eutrophication-driven hypoxia. Low oxygen levels are threatening its biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The main causes for eutrophication-driven hypoxia are high nutrient loadings and global warming. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) contribute to eutrophication as they are important sources of nitrogen to coastal areas. Here, we evaluated the effects of wastewater treatment plant effluent inputs on Baltic Sea planktonic communities in four experiments. We tested for effects of effluent inputs on chlorophyll <i>a</i> content, bacterial community composition, and metabolic rates: gross primary production (GPP), net community production (NCP), community respiration (CR) and bacterial production (BP). Nitrogen-rich dissolved organic matter (DOM) inputs from effluents increased bacterial production and decreased primary production and community respiration. Nutrient amendments and seasonally variable environmental conditions lead to lower alpha-diversity and shifts in bacterial community composition (e.g. increased abundance of a few cyanobacterial populations in the summer experiment), concomitant with changes in metabolic rates. An increase in BP and decrease in CR could be caused by high lability of the DOM that can support secondary bacterial production, without an increase in respiration. Increases in bacterial production and simultaneous decreases of primary production lead to more carbon being consumed in the microbial loop, and may shift the ecosystem towards heterotrophy