Global Spatio-temporal Patterns of Influenza in the Post-pandemic Era

We study the global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza dynamics. This is achieved by analysing and modelling weekly laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A and B from 138 countries between January 2006 and May 2014. The data were obtained from FluNet, the surveillance network compiled by the the World Health Organization. We report a pattern of {\it skip-and-resurgence} behavior between the years 2011 and 2013 for influenza H1N1/09, the strain responsible for the 2009 pandemic, in Europe and Eastern Asia. In particular, the expected H1N1/09 epidemic outbreak in 2011 failed to occur (or"skipped") in many countries across the globe, although an outbreak occurred in the following year. We also report a pattern of {\it well-synchronized} 2010 winter wave of H1N1/09 in the Northern Hemisphere countries, and a pattern of replacement of strain H1N1/77 by H1N1/09 between the 2009 and 2012 influenza seasons. Using both a statistical and a mechanistic mathematical model, and through fitting the data of 108 countries (108 countries in a statistical model and 10 large populations with a mechanistic model), we discuss the mechanisms that are likely to generate these events taking into account the role of multi-strain dynamics. A basic understanding of these patterns has important public health implications and scientific significance

Completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules

This paper develops a simple age-period-cohort framework in completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules, and makes full use of 1917--2005 U.S. data to obtain robust outcomes. Empirically, we indicate that the period effect is the key to transforming a fertility level into a fertility schedule. Accompanied by the smoothed version of tempo-variance-adjusted total fertility rates proposed in Kohler and Philipov (2001), we approximate the cohort fertility schedules fairly well and the estimates of all distributional parameters can be thereby obtained. Our approach is easy to implement and the data requirement is relatively light, indicating that the proposed method is readily applicable to countries whose data lengths are insufficiently long, and would be helpful for further empirical investigation of the relationship between cohort fertility behavior and other cohort-specific socioeconomic factors.APC model, cohort fertility schedule, fertility forecast

The influence of process gas type on the enamel surface condition of a high power diode laser generated single-stage ceramic tile grout seal

Almost all laser materials processing operations require the simultaneous use of an process or assist gas. This paper examines the use of O2, Ar, N2 and He as process gasses during the firing of a vitreous enamel to form a single-stage ceramic tile grout seal with a high power diode laser (HPDL) and the effects thereof on the surface condition of the glaze. The findings revealed marked differences in the surface condition of the HPDL generated enamel glaze depending upon the process gas used. The use of O2 as the process gas was seen to result in glazes with far fewer microcracks and porosities than those generated with any of the other three gasses, particularly He. Such differences were found to be due to the ability of the smaller O2 gas molecules to dissolve molecularly into the open structure of the HPDL generated enamel glaze and also, the inherent reactiveness of O2 which consequently effects exothermic reactions when it is used as a process gas. Both occurrences were seen, in turn, to affect the cooling rate and therefore the tendency of the molten glaze to generate microcracks when cooled

A comparative investigation of the wear characteristics of a high power diode laser generated single-stage tile grout and commercial epoxy tile grout

A comparative study of a single-stage ceramic tile grout, generated using a 60 W high power diode laser (HPDL), and a commercially available tile grout has determined the wear characteristics of the two materials. Within both normal and corrosive environmental conditions, the single-stage ceramic tile grout proved to have a superior wear rate over the epoxy tile grout, 0.9 mg/cm2/h compared with 125 mg/cm2/h when in an HNO3 environment respectively. Likewise, life assessment testing revealed that the single-stage ceramic tile grout gave an increase in wear life of 4 to 42 times over the commercially available epoxy tile grout, depending upon the corrosive environment. It is believed that the economic and material benefits to be gained from the deployment of such an effective and efficient means of sealing ceramic tiles could be significant

Temperature Dependent Neutron Scattering Sections for Polyethylene

This note presents neutron scattering cross sections for polyethylene at 296 K, 77 K and 4 K derived from a new scattering kernel for neutron scattering off of hydrogen in polyethylene. The kernel was developed in ENDF-6 format as a set of S(alpha,beta) tables using the LEAPR module of the NJOY94 code package. The polyethylene density of states (from 0 to sub eV) adopted to derive the new kernel is presented. We compare our calculated room temperature total scattering cross sections and double differential cross sections at 232 meV at various angles with the available experimental data (at room temperature), and then extrapolate the calculations to lower temperatures (77K and 4K). The new temperature dependent scattering kernel gives a good quantitative fit to the available room temperature data and has a temperature dependence that is qualitatively consistent with thermodynamics.Comment: 6 page

The Cdc42 effectors Ste20, Cla4, and Skm1 down-regulate the expression of genes involved in sterol uptake by a mitogen-activated protein kinase-independent pathway

© 2009 by The American Society for Cell Biology. Under the License and Publishing Agreement, authors grant to the general public, effective two months after publication of (i.e.,. the appearance of) the edited manuscript in an online issue of MBoC, the nonexclusive right to copy, distribute, or display the manuscript subject to the terms of the Creative Commons–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the Rho-type GTPase Cdc42 regulates polarized growth through its effectors, including the p21-activated kinases (PAKs) Ste20, Cla4, and Skm1. Previously, we demonstrated that Ste20 interacts with several proteins involved in sterol synthesis that are crucial for cell polarization. Under anaerobic conditions, sterols cannot be synthesized and need to be imported into cells. Here, we show that Ste20, Cla4, and Skm1 form a complex with Sut1, a transcriptional regulator that promotes sterol uptake. All three PAKs can translocate into the nucleus and down-regulate the expression of genes involved in sterol uptake, including the Sut1 targets AUS1 and DAN1 by a novel mechanism. Consistently, deletion of either STE20, CLA4, or SKM1 results in an increased sterol influx and PAK overexpression inhibits sterol uptake. For Ste20, we demonstrate that the down-regulation of gene expression requires nuclear localization and kinase activity of Ste20. Furthermore, the Ste20-mediated control of expression of sterol uptake genes depends on SUT1 but is independent of a mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade. Together, these observations suggest that PAKs translocate into the nucleus, where they modulate expression of sterol uptake genes via Sut1, thereby controlling sterol homeostasis.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and the Swiss National Science Foundation

Abstractions, accounts and grid usability

The vision of the Grid is one of seamless, virtual and constantly changing resources where users need not concern themselves about details, such as exactly where an application is running or where their data is being stored. However, seamless and virtual often imply a lack of control that users may be wary of, or even opposed to. Drawing upon our studies of HCI and of collaborative work, this paper examines whether the Grid development community should be taking this vision literally and argues for the need for accountability of systems ‘in interaction’. We give examples of an alternative approach that seeks to provide ways in which administrators, technical support and user communities can make sense of the behaviour of the complex socio-technical ensembles that are the reality of Grids

Real-Time Monitoring of the Mechanical Properties of a Soy Protein and Rubber Polymer during its Production Using Transient Infrared Spectroscopy

Soy protein-based polymers offer promising performance properties, but their characteristics are sensitively dependent on production conditions, so on-line monitoring could help provide the needed control during production. Mid-infrared spectroscopy combined with partial least squares offer the needed analysis, but the opacity of many materials in the mid-infrared limits its conventional application. Transient infrared spectroscopy is a method of acquiring mid-infrared spectra from moving streams in real time that avoids the opacity problem. We apply transient infrared spectroscopy to a polymer of soy protein and polyisoprene-graft-maleic anhydride– modified natural rubber during its compounding extrusion to measure tensile strength and Young’s modulus