EVALUATION OF THE POSSIBLE THREAT OF NAFTA ON U.S. CATFISH INDUSTRY USING A TRADITIONAL IMPORT DEMAND FUNCTION

The effects of increased exports from NAFTA member countries on the U.S. domestic catfish industry were evaluated. Results showed that the quantity of catfish imported will fall if the domestic price of catfish falls relative to the import price. Past imports have no effect on present imports. The income elasticity was negative indicating that imported catfish may be an inferior good. Doubling present levels of imports from NAFTA member countries is not a threat to the U.S. catfish industry.International Relations/Trade,

Globalization Equity and Justice in Small Nation States

The effects of globalization on smaller nation Caribbean states have not been thoroughly examined, and the trade performance of these states has not been evaluated since the WTO came into existence. In this paper, we report on a study that conducted a comparative analysis of selected Caribbean nation states with other countries at different stages of development to determine their levels of performance from 1990 to 1995, the period before the WTO began full operation, and the period 1996 to 2002, the period after globalization. The selected Caribbean countries were Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Suriname. The measures for comparison are changes in GDP per capita, capital investment as a percentage of GDP, foreign direct investment, current account balance, trade balance, export services, infant mortality, literacy rates, and agricultural and service labor force change. We also compared the economic and social performance of these countries with those of selected countries of North America, South and Central America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. The economic performance of the Caribbean states varied and compared favorably with other developing economies and developed economies, but the socioeconomic indicators worsened for Suriname and other nation states. The current account and the trade balances were negative for Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, in spite of their positive changes in GDP per capita since the WTO came into operation. No factors provide evidence of how well the countries are likely to perform in the future with the implementation of the WTO. In general, the Caribbean states performed worse before, rather than after, the implementation of the WTO. Model results show that the Caribbean states should concentrate on the export of services and the increase of the agricultural labor force to stimulate significant economic growth. The factors influencing the growth of other regions vary, but export of services seemed to have a general effect on economic growth. In terms of social indicator improvement, countries in Asia and Africa should reduce infant mortality while North America and South America could benefit from improvement in literacy rates.Caribbean states, regression analysis, globalization, equity., Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, International Development,

U.S. Import Demand for Tilapia from Selected FTAA Countries

Seafood consumption in the U.S. has increased over the period 1990 to 2003. A large percentage of the seafood consumed in the U.S. is imported. The most important seafood products imported to the U.S. are shrimp, Atlantic salmon, tilapia, catfish, crayfish, mussels and a mixture of mollusks. In 2003, the U.S. imported 199 million pounds of tilapia and tilapia products, at a value of $241.2 million, a 38$77,952 (Aquaculture Outlook, 2004). Given that tilapia culture may be a promising enterprise for CARICOM and FTAA member countries, it is important to evaluate changes in U.S. market demand for tilapia from CARICOM countries. A Source Differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System (SDAIDS) model was used to conduct an import demand study for tilapia and tilapia products in the U.S. The own price elasticity of Jamaica frozen fillet was found to be -0.23, and significant which means that it is price inelastic and which means that increases in exports, other factors remaining constant, may lead to a fall in total revenue. The Jamaican frozen fillet is complementary to that of the rest of the world (ROW) and fresh fillet from Ecuador, but competitive (substitute) to fresh-frozen fillet from Thailand. Fresh fillet from Ecuador, with a cross price elasticity of 0.29, is a substitute for the fresh fillet from Costa Rica. The fresh fillet from Costa Rica is complementary to the fresh-frozen from Thailand. The fresh fillet from Honduras with a cross price elasticity of 1.13 is a substitute for the fresh fillet from Ecuador. However, the fresh fillet from Honduras is a complement to the frozen fillet from Thailand. Seafood consumption in the U.S. has increased over the period 1990 to 2003. A large percentage of the seafood consumed in the U.S. is imported. The most important seafood products imported to the U.S. are shrimp, Atlantic salmon, tilapia, catfish, crayfish, mussels and a mixture of mollusks. In 2003, the U.S. imported 199 million pounds of tilapia and tilapia products, at a value of $241.2 million, a 38$77,952 (Aquaculture Outlook, 2004). Given that tilapia culture may be a promising enterprise for CARICOM and FTAA member countries, it is important to evaluate changes in U.S. market demand for tilapia from CARICOM countries. A Source Differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System (SDAIDS) model was used to conduct an import demand study for tilapia and tilapia products in the U.S. The own price elasticity of Jamaica frozen fillet was found to be -0.23, and significant which means that it is price inelastic and which means that increases in exports, other factors remaining constant, may lead to a fall in total revenue. The Jamaican frozen fillet is complementary to that of the rest of the world (ROW) and fresh fillet from Ecuador, but competitive (substitute) to fresh-frozen fillet from Thailand. Fresh fillet from Ecuador, with a cross price elasticity of 0.29, is a substitute for the fresh fillet from Costa Rica. The fresh fillet from Costa Rica is complementary to the fresh-frozen from Thailand. The fresh fillet from Honduras with a cross price elasticity of 1.13 is a substitute for the fresh fillet from Ecuador. However, the fresh fillet from Honduras is a complement to the frozen fillet from Thailand. The FTAA member states, other than Ecuador, are not major players in the frozen whole tilapia market. Large non-member countries, such as Thailand, Taiwan, and China, may be serious threats to CARICOM and FTAA member country tilapia products in the U.S. market. The FTAA member countries have concentrated on the fresh-frozen fillet and may have a comparative advantage for this product line because of proximity to the market.Tilapia, sea-food, Almost-Ideal-Demand-System, import, FTAA countries, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Production risks in Bulgarian peanut production

As farmers in a transition economy search for new crop enterprises with a potential for income enhancement they are faced with increased risks in the process of resource allocation. It has been noted that biased estimation of production function estimates results from the lack of accountability of risks. Since peanut production in Bulgaria has increased at a varying rate since 1989 it is important that we examine the risks associated with input use. The data for this study were collected from farmers from 18 villages in the southern part of Bulgaria. A total of 205 farmers were surveyed for this study. Peanut yield in Bulgaria is positively related to the quantity of seed used, fungicide, manual labor, investment level and mechanized labor used. Peanut yield is negatively influenced by investment levels but positively by the increase of manual labor. The response of yield to quantity of seed used is elastic, and an addition of a kg of peanut seeds may increase yield by 32kg. However, as the quantity of seeds used per ha increases the risk is expected to increase, hence farmers may be cautious in increasing the quantity of seeds used. Investment capital, manual labor and mechanized labor are positively related to yield and there will be a reduction in yield if the optimal levels of those inputs are surpassed. Thus farmers may increase yield and production by augmenting the seeding rate, other factors remaining constant.Agricultural and Food Policy,

THE ECONOMICS OF PEANUT PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD

We examined peanut production systems and selected factors affecting the development of commercial peanut enterprises in Bulgaria. A survey of 220 individual farms and farm cooperatives engaged in the cultivation of peanuts was conducted during 2000 and 2002. Poor farm structure, low level of technology, and nonconformity to farm decision making impede the financial and economic development of Bulgarian peanut production and farm growth, thus limiting farm enterprises emergence into competitive economic units financially operative in a freemarket economy. The underlying cost structure, couple with small farms, averaging 0.8 ha in size, prevent farmers from capturing economies of scale, limit farm profitability and hence farm modernization. The lack of owned farm machinery, equipment and storage facilities renders the restructuring and specialization extremely difficult. However, peanut production is still a viable farm enterprise for Bulgarian farmers

ИКОНОМИКА НА ФЪСТЪКОПРОИЗВОДСТВОТО В БЪЛГАРИЯ ПРЕЗ ПРЕХОДНИЯ ПЕРИОД

We examined peanut production systems and selected factors affecting the development of commercial peanut enterprises in Bulgaria. A survey of 220 individual farms and farm cooperatives engaged in the cultivation of peanuts was conducted during 2000 and 2002. Poor farm structure, low level of technology, and nonconformity to farm decision making impede the financial and economic development of Bulgarian peanut production and farm growth, thus limiting farm enterprises emergence into competitive economic units financially operative in a freemarket economy. The underlying cost structure, couple with small farms, averaging 0.8 ha in size, prevent farmers from capturing economies of scale, limit farm profitability and hence farm modernization. The lack of owned farm machinery, equipment and storage facilities renders the restructuring and specialization extremely difficult. However, peanut production is still a viable farm enterprise for Bulgarian farmers.Изследвана е системата на производство на фъстъци и факторите влияещи върху развитието на фъстъчения сектор в България. Проучени са 220 индивидуални и кооперативни земеделски стопанства произвеждащи фъстъци през периода 2000-2002 г. Неподходящата структура на земеделските стопанства, ниското технологично равнище, несъобразяването с процеса на вземане на решения затрудняват финансовото и икономическото развитие и ръста на производството на фъстъци. По такъв начин се ограничава и процеса на превръщане на земеделските стопанства в конкурентни единици, способни да работят ефективно в условията на пазарна икономика. Структурата на разходите, наред с дребните земеделски стопанства със средна обработваема площ 0.8 ha възпрепятствуват извличането на полза от икономия от мащаба, ограничават продуктивността, а от тук и процеса на модернизиране на стопанствата. Липсата на собствена техника, оборудване и складова база предопределят и големите трудности на преструктуриране и специализация на производството. Независимо от това, производството на фъстъци все още е изгодно за българските фермери

ФИНАНСОВО ИКОНОМИЧЕСКИ АНАЛИЗ НА ПРОИЗВОДСТВОТО НА ФЪСТЪЦИ В БЪЛГАРИЯ

Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgaria. Long-run analyses show that peanut production may be economically feasible and producers engaged in production for a period of seven years, and at a discount rate of 13%, may generate internal rates of return (IRR) that vary from -20.57% to 67.39%. About 70% of the farms studied had IRRs greater than the discount rate. Sensitivity analyses show that profi tability of peanut production was infl uenced by yield and variable costs. There were risks at the village level associated with peanut production.Въпреки, че фъстъците не са основна култура за България, те имат значителен икономически и финансов потенциал, който не е достатъчно проучен. За изследване на икономическото и финансово състояние на стопанствата произвеждащи фъстъци, както и за оценка на факторите, които влияят върху ефективността в кратко срочен и дългосрочен аспект бяха използвани техниките на производствените и капиталови бюджети, анализ на риска и логистични регресионни модели. Получените резултати показаха, че за повечето стопанства отглеждащи фъстъци в България производството е рентабилно. Анализите в дългосрочен план показват, че производството на фъстъци за период от седем години може да бъде икономическо оправдано при дисконтов фактор от 13%, като вътрешната норма на възвращаемост (IRR) варира от 20.57% до 67.39%. За около 70% от изследваните стопанства IRR превишава дискантовия фактор. Резултатите от анализа на чувствителността показват, че ефективността на производството на фъстъци се влияе от средните добиви и променливите разходи. На равнище селище съществуват някои рискове на производство на фъстъци

ФИНАНСОВО ИКОНОМИЧЕСКИ АНАЛИЗ НА ПРОИЗВОДСТВОТО НА ФЪСТЪЦИ В БЪЛГАРИЯ

Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgaria. Long-run analyses show that peanut production may be economically feasible and producers engaged in production for a period of seven years, and at a discount rate of 13%, may generate internal rates of return (IRR) that vary from -20.57% to 67.39%. About 70% of the farms studied had IRRs greater than the discount rate. Sensitivity analyses show that profi tability of peanut production was infl uenced by yield and variable costs. There were risks at the village level associated with peanut production.Въпреки, че фъстъците не са основна култура за България, те имат значителен икономически и финансов потенциал, който не е достатъчно проучен. За изследване на икономическото и финансово състояние на стопанствата произвеждащи фъстъци, както и за оценка на факторите, които влияят върху ефективността в кратко срочен и дългосрочен аспект бяха използвани техниките на производствените и капиталови бюджети, анализ на риска и логистични регресионни модели. Получените резултати показаха, че за повечето стопанства отглеждащи фъстъци в България производството е рентабилно. Анализите в дългосрочен план показват, че производството на фъстъци за период от седем години може да бъде икономическо оправдано при дисконтов фактор от 13%, като вътрешната норма на възвращаемост (IRR) варира от 20.57% до 67.39%. За около 70% от изследваните стопанства IRR превишава дискантовия фактор. Резултатите от анализа на чувствителността показват, че ефективността на производството на фъстъци се влияе от средните добиви и променливите разходи. На равнище селище съществуват някои рискове на производство на фъстъци

The Effect of CAFTA-DR and CBI on Ethanol Production and Trade

Given U.S. government mandates and subsidies, ethanol production has grown significantly since 2000. Most of the ethanol used in the US is from domestically produced corn, however the US has been importing relatively small amounts of sugar based ethanol from countries in South and Central America and the Caribbean over the past few years. The key reason why the import of ethanol has played a minor role in the US market is a tariff on imported ethanol. Under Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), ethanol that is produced in the CBI and CAFTA-DR countries can be imported duty free into the US. Therefore several countries have set up dehydration plants in the CBI and CAFTA-DR countries to convert hydrous ethanol (“wet ethanol”) from Brazil into dehydrated ethanol, which is then exported duty-free to the US. This study examines the effects that CAFTA-DR might have on the ethanol production and economies of the CAFTA-DR and CBI countries