How to determine an optimal threshold to classify real-time crash-prone traffic conditions?

One of the proactive approaches in reducing traffic crashes is to identify hazardous traffic conditions that may lead to a traffic crash, known as real-time crash prediction. Threshold selection is one of the essential steps of real-time crash prediction. And it provides the cut-off point for the posterior probability which is used to separate potential crash warnings against normal traffic conditions, after the outcome of the probability of a crash occurring given a specific traffic condition on the basis of crash risk evaluation models. There is however a dearth of research that focuses on how to effectively determine an optimal threshold. And only when discussing the predictive performance of the models, a few studies utilized subjective methods to choose the threshold. The subjective methods cannot automatically identify the optimal thresholds in different traffic and weather conditions in real application. Thus, a theoretical method to select the threshold value is necessary for the sake of avoiding subjective judgments. The purpose of this study is to provide a theoretical method for automatically identifying the optimal threshold. Considering the random effects of variable factors across all roadway segments, the mixed logit model was utilized to develop the crash risk evaluation model and further evaluate the crash risk. Cross-entropy, between-class variance and other theories were employed and investigated to empirically identify the optimal threshold. And K-fold cross-validation was used to validate the performance of proposed threshold selection methods with the help of several evaluation criteria. The results indicate that (i) the mixed logit model can obtain a good performance; (ii) the classification performance of the threshold selected by the minimum cross-entropy method outperforms the other methods according to the criteria. This method can be well-behaved to automatically identify thresholds in crash prediction, by minimizing the cross entropy between the original dataset with continuous probability of a crash occurring and the binarized dataset after using the thresholds to separate potential crash warnings against normal traffic conditions

OpenNDD: Open Set Recognition for Neurodevelopmental Disorders Detection

Neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) are a highly prevalent group of disorders and represent strong clinical behavioral similarities, and that make it very challenging for accurate identification of different NDDs such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Moreover, there is no reliable physiological markers for NDDs diagnosis and it solely relies on psychological evaluation criteria. However, it is crucial to prevent misdiagnosis and underdiagnosis by intelligent assisted diagnosis, which is closely related to the follow-up corresponding treatment. In order to relieve these issues, we propose a novel open set recognition framework for NDDs screening and detection, which is the first application of open set recognition in this field. It combines auto encoder and adversarial reciprocal points open set recognition to accurately identify known classes as well as recognize classes never encountered. And considering the strong similarities between different subjects, we present a joint scaling method called MMS to distinguish unknown disorders. To validate the feasibility of our presented method, we design a reciprocal opposition experiment protocol on the hybrid datasets from Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange I (ABIDE I) and THE ADHD-200 SAMPLE (ADHD-200) with 791 samples from four sites and the results demonstrate the superiority on various metrics. Our OpenNDD has achieved promising performance, where the accuracy is 77.38%, AUROC is 75.53% and the open set classification rate is as high as 59.43%.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

STAT1 as a downstream mediator of ERK signaling contributes to bone cancer pain by regulating MHC II expression in spinal microglia

Major histocompatibility class II (MHC II)-specific activation of CD4+ T helper cells generates specific and persistent adaptive immunity against tumors. Emerging evidence demonstrates that MHC II is also involved in basic pain perception; however, little is known regarding its role in the development of cancer-induced bone pain (CIBP). In this study, we demonstrate that MHC II expression was markedly induced on the spinal microglia of CIBP rats in response to STAT1 phosphorylation. Mechanical allodynia was ameliorated by either pharmacological or genetic inhibition of MHC II upregulation, which was also attenuated by the inhibition of pSTAT1 and pERK but was deteriorated by intrathecal injection of IFNγ. Furthermore, inhibition of ERK signaling decreased the phosphorylation of STAT1, as well as the production of MHC II in vivo and in vitro. These findings suggest that STAT1 contributes to bone cancer pain as a downstream mediator of ERK signaling by regulating MHC II expression in spinal microglia

Photometric Redshift Determination with the BATC Multicolor System

In this paper, we present the methodology of photometric redshift determination with the BATC 15-color system by using hyperz program. Both simulated galaxies and real galaxies with known redshifts were used to estimate the accuracy of redshifts inferred from the multicolor photometry. From the test with simulated galaxies, the uncertainty in the inferred redshifts is about $0.02\sim0.03$ for a given range of photometric uncertainty of $0.05 \sim 0.10$. The results with the 27 real galaxies are in good agreement with the simulated ones. The advantage of using BATC intermediate-band system to derive redshift is clear through the comparison with the UBVRI broad-band system. The accuracy in redshift determination with BATC system is mainly affected by the selection of filters and the photometric uncertainties in the observation. When we take the limiting magnitudes of the 15 filters into account, we find that redshift can be determined with good accuracy for galaxies with redshifts less than 0.5, using only filters with central wavelengths shorter than 6000 A.Comment: 22 pages, accepted for publishing by PAS

Selection of Suitable Reference Genes for Quantitative Real-time PCR in Sapium sebiferum

Chinese tallow (Sapium sebiferum L.) is a promising landscape and bioenergy plant. Measuring gene expression by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) can provide valuable information on gene function. Stably expressed reference genes for normalization are a prerequisite for ensuring the accuracy of the target gene expression level among different samples. However, the reference genes in Chinese tallow have not been systematically validated. In this study, 12 candidate reference genes (18S, GAPDH, UBQ, RPS15, SAND, TIP41, 60S, ACT7, PDF2, APT, TBP, and TUB) were investigated with qRT-PCR in 18 samples, including those from different tissues, from plants treated with sucrose and cold stresses. The data were calculated with four common algorithms, geNorm, BestKeeper, NormFinder, and the delta cycle threshold (ΔCt). TIP41 and GAPDH were the most stable for the tissue-specific experiment, GAPDH and 60S for cold treatment, and GAPDH and UBQ for sucrose stresses, while the least stable genes were 60S, TIP41, and 18S respectively. The comprehensive results showed APT, GAPDH, and UBQ to be the top-ranked stable genes across all the samples. The stability of 60S was the lowest during all experiments. These selected reference genes were further validated by comparing the expression profiles of the chalcone synthase gene in Chinese tallow in different samples. The results will help to improve the accuracy of gene expression studies in Chinese tallow

GWAS of epigenetic aging rates in blood reveals a critical role for TERT.

DNA methylation age is an accurate biomarker of chronological age and predicts lifespan, but its underlying molecular mechanisms are unknown. In this genome-wide association study of 9907 individuals, we find gene variants mapping to five loci associated with intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAA) and gene variants in three loci associated with extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA). Mendelian randomization analysis suggests causal influences of menarche and menopause on IEAA and lipoproteins on IEAA and EEAA. Variants associated with longer leukocyte telomere length (LTL) in the telomerase reverse transcriptase gene (TERT) paradoxically confer higher IEAA (P < 2.7 × 10-11). Causal modeling indicates TERT-specific and independent effects on LTL and IEAA. Experimental hTERT-expression in primary human fibroblasts engenders a linear increase in DNA methylation age with cell population doubling number. Together, these findings indicate a critical role for hTERT in regulating the epigenetic clock, in addition to its established role of compensating for cell replication-dependent telomere shortening

Association Between Whole Blood-Derived Mitochondrial Dna Copy Number, Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Background The relationship between mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNA CN) and cardiovascular disease remains elusive. Methods and Results We performed cross-sectional and prospective association analyses of blood-derived mtDNA CN and cardiovascular disease outcomes in 27 316 participants in 8 cohorts of multiple racial and ethnic groups with whole-genome sequencing. We also performed Mendelian randomization to explore causal relationships of mtDNA CN with coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiometabolic risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia)