A Spreading Danger: Time for a New Policy towards Chechnya. CEPS Policy Briefs No. 68, 1 April 2005

The ongoing conflict in and around Chechnya is helping to feed the wider international jihadi movement, and is endangering the West as well as Russia. The next “soft target” of North Caucasian terrorism could be a Western one. Mutual recriminations over the conflict have badly damaged relations between Russia and the West. While most of the blame for this lies with Russian policies, the Western approach to the issue has often been unhelpful and irresponsible. Denunciations of Russian behaviour have not been matched by a real understanding of the Chechen conflict or a real commitment to help. In their own interest, Western countries need urgently to address the crisis in the North Caucasus. This requires them to recognize the seriousness of the threat, to open a real dialogue on cooperation with Russia rather than simply making criticisms, and to make a serious economic contribution to the region

Diasporas and secessionist conflicts : the mobilization of the Armenian, Albanian and Chechen diasporas

This article examines the impact of diasporas on secessionist conflicts, focusing on the Albanian, Armenian and Chechen diasporas and the conflicts in Kosovo, Karabakh and Chechnya during the 1990s. How do diasporas radicalize these conflicts? I argue that despite differences in diaspora communal characteristics and the types of the secessionist conflicts, a common pattern of mobilization develops. Large-scale diasporic support for secessionism emerges only after independence is proclaimed by the local elites. From that point onwards diasporas become engaged in a conflict spiral, and transnational coalitions are formed between local secessionist and diaspora groups. Depending on the organizational strength of the local strategic centre and the diasporic institutions, these coalitions endure or dissipate. Diasporas exert radicalization influences on the conflict spiral on two specific junctures – when grave violations of human rights occur in the homeland and when local moderate elites start losing credibility that they can achieve the secessionist goal

#Nationalism: the ethno-nationalist populism of Donald Trump’s Twitter communication

In this article, we explore the ethno-nationalist populism of Donald Trump’s Twitter communication during the 2016 presidential campaign. We draw on insights from ethno-symbolism – a perspective within nationalism studies – to analyse all 5,515 tweets sent by Trump during the campaign. We find that ethno-nationalist and populist themes were by far the most important component of Trump’s tweets, and that these themes built upon long-standing myths and symbols of an ethnic conception of American identity. In sum, Trump’s tweets depicted a virtuous white majority being threatened by several groups of immoral outsiders, who were identified by their foreignness, their religion, and their self-interestedness. The struggle against these groups was framed as a mission to restore America to a mythical golden age – to “Make America Great Again.

International Interventions and Normative Prudence as a ‘Forgotten’ Virtue of Statecraft

This article presents a case for making normative prudence key to the debates concerning international interventions and statebuilding. Despite a rich conceptual history, contemporary IR literature seems to have forgotten the concept. We address this gap by defining the virtue through the yardsticks of deliberation, caution, foresight, and knowing the limits of one's abilities. Applying these yardsticks to the cases of the Kosovo (1999) and Iraq wars (2003), we argue that once developed in the context of international interventions, the concept of normative prudence provides an invaluable platform for assessing interventions and, if employed robustly, it can help those undertaking the interventions to prepare for the ‘day after.

Modern American populism: Analyzing the economics behind the Silent Majority, the Tea Party and Trumpism

This article researches populism, more specifically, Modern American Populism (MAP), constructed of white, rural, and economically oppressed reactionarianism, which was borne out of the political upheaval of the 1960’s Civil Rights movement. The research looks to explain the causes of populism and what leads voters to support populist movements and politicians. The research focuses on economic anxiety as the main cause but also examines an alternative theory of racial resentment. In an effort to answer the question, what causes populist movements and motivations, I apply a research approach that utilizes qualitative and quantitative methods. There is an examination of literature that defines populism, its causes and a detailed discussion of the case studies, including the 1972 election of Richard Nixon; the Tea Party election of 2010; and the 2016 election of Donald Trump. In addition, statistical data analysis was run using American National Election Studies (ANES) surveys associated with each specific case study. These case studies were chosen because they most represent forms of populist movements in modern American history. While ample qualitative evidence suggested support for the hypothesis that economic anxiety is a necessary condition for populist voting patterns that elected Nixon, the Tea Party and Trump, the statistical data only supported the hypothesis in two cases, 2010 and 2016, with 1972 coming back inconclusive. The data also suggested that both economic anxiety and racial resentment played a role in 2010 and 2016, while having no significant effect in 1972 in either case. This suggests that further research needs to be conducted into additional populist case studies, as well as an examination into the role economic anxiety and economic crises play on racial resentment and racially motivated voting behavior

How Pakistan Works

The title for this essay comes from the fact that contrary to the general Western perception, Pakistan does actually work as a country, not as well as many, but better than some; and that it is in no immediate danger of collapse, except as a result of misguided and reckless US policies. Pakistan is in many ways surprisingly tough as a state and political society. The loss of Bangladesh in 1971 does not set a precedent for present-day Pakistan. The Pakistan of 1947-71, two regions with very different histories and cultures, separated by a thousand miles and a hostile India, could not possibly have lasted – no state so constructed could have lasted long. The provinces of West Pakistan however form much more of a unity