179 research outputs found
Cliophysics: Socio-political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities
Quantification of historical sociological processes have recently gained
attention among theoreticians in the effort of providing a solid theoretical
understanding of the behaviors and regularities present in sociopolitical
dynamics. Here we present a reliability theory of polity processes with
emphases on individual political dynamics of African countries. We found that
the structural properties of polity failure rates successfully capture the risk
of political vulnerability and instabilities in which 87.50%, 75%, 71.43%, and
0% of the countries with monotonically increasing, unimodal, U-shaped and
monotonically decreasing polity failure rates, respectively, have high level of
state fragility indices. The quasi-U-shape relationship between average polity
duration and regime types corroborates historical precedents and explains the
stability of the autocracies and democracies.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl
Citizens, bribery and the propensity to protest
It is widely assumed that the more one experiences corruption the more likely one is to want to protest about it. Yet empirical evidence illustrating this is thin on the ground. This paper fills that gap by focusing on the extent to which self-reported experience of bribery affects the willingness to engage in protests against corruption in Africa. We find that the more one experiences bribery the more one is likely to support anti-corruption protests. A further unexpected finding is that the personal experience of corruption also increases the willingness to rely on bribes to solve public administration problems
Language, Religion, and Ethnic Civil War
Are certain ethnic cleavages more conflict-prone than others? While only few scholars focus on the contents of ethnicity, most of those who do argue that political violence is more likely to occur along religious divisions than linguistic ones. We challenge this claim by analyzing the path from linguistic differences to ethnic civil war along three theoretical steps: (1) the perception of grievances by group members, (2) rebel mobilization, and (3) government accommodation of rebel demands. Our argument is tested with a new data set of ethnic cleavages that records multiple linguistic and religious segments for ethnic groups from 1946 to 2009. Adopting a relational perspective, we assess ethnic differences between potential challengers and the politically dominant group in each country. Our findings indicate that intrastate conflict is more likely within linguistic dyads than among religious ones. Moreover, we find no support for the thesis that Muslim groups are particularly conflict-prone
The Spread of Inequality
The causes of socioeconomic inequality have been debated since the time of Plato. Many reasons for the development of stratification have been proposed, from the need for hierarchical control over large-scale irrigation systems to the accumulation of small differences in wealth over time via inheritance processes. However, none of these explains how unequal societies came to completely displace egalitarian cultural norms over time. Our study models demographic consequences associated with the unequal distribution of resources in stratified societies. Agent-based simulation results show that in constant environments, unequal access to resources can be demographically destabilizing, resulting in the outward migration and spread of such societies even when population size is relatively small. In variable environments, stratified societies spread more and are also better able to survive resource shortages by sequestering mortality in the lower classes. The predictions of our simulation are provided modest support by a range of existing empirical studies. In short, the fact that stratified societies today vastly outnumber egalitarian societies may not be due to the transformation of egalitarian norms and structures, but may instead reflect the more rapid migration of stratified societies and consequent conquest or displacement of egalitarian societies over time
From low-conflict polity to democratic civil peace: Explaining Zambian exceptionalism
An absence of civil war and other significant sub-state violence makes Zambia an exceptional although not unique case in central-southern Africa. The literature devoted to explaining civil war has grown dramatically in recent years, but while it pays much attention to sub-Saharan Africa only rarely does it investigate counterfactual cases like Zambia. Similarly the growing field of research into post-conflict reconstruction fails to capture the distinct features of persistently low-conflict situations where many of the predisposing conditions for violent conflict might seem to be present. This paper examines Zambiaâs experience against a background of general theories that try to explain conflict. It is an âinterpretative case studyâ. The paper proceeds by substantiating Zambiaâs claim to a relatively peaceful record and introduces ideas of conflict and conflict theories, before arguing that no single general theory dwelling on just one primary âcauseâ will suffice to explain Zambian exceptionalism. The precise mix of arguments differs for each one Zambiaâs three republican eras, as the potential threats to peace have themselves evolved over the period since independence. The paperâs main theoretical claim is that over time the explanation is both multi-layered and dynamic. That said, certain features do stand out, most notably an inherited political culture that is predisposed against the violent resolution of conflict and continues to insulate the country against social and economic traumas and democratic shortcomings
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