6 research outputs found
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
ISSN:1752-0908ISSN:1752-089
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Baseline evaluation of the impact of updates to the MIT Earth System Model on its model parameter estimates
For over 20 years, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM) has been used extensively for climate change research. The model is under continuous development with components being added and updated. To provide transparency in the model development, we perform a baseline evaluation by comparing model behavior and properties in the newest version to the previous model version. In particular, changes resulting from updates to the land surface model component and the input forcings used in historical simulations of climate change are investigated. We run an 1800-member ensemble of MESM historical climate simulations where the model parameters that set climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing are systematically varied. By comparing model output to observed patterns of surface temperature changes and the linear trend in the increase in ocean heat content, we derive probability distributions for the three model parameters. Furthermore, we run a 372-member ensemble of transient climate simulations where all model forcings are fixed and carbon dioxide concentrations are increased at the rate of 1 % yearĝ'1. From these runs, we derive response surfaces for transient climate response and thermosteric sea level rise as a function of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. We show that the probability distributions shift towards higher climate sensitivities and weaker aerosol forcing when using the new model and that the climate response surfaces are relatively unchanged between model versions. Because the response surfaces are independent of the changes to the model forcings and similar between model versions with different land surface models, we suggest that the change in land surface model has limited impact on the temperature evolution in the model. Thus, we attribute the shifts in parameter estimates to the updated model forcings
Prevalência e fatores associados com o consumo de substâncias psicoativas por acadêmicos de enfermagem da Universidade de Passo Fundo Prevalence and factors associated with psychoactives substances consumption for academics of nursing of the University of Passo Fundo
Com o objetivo de estimar a prevalência de consumo de substâncias psicoativas e seus determinantes entre acadêmicos de enfermagem da Universidade de Passo Fundo (RS), realizou-se estudo transversal com 266 alunos, maiores de dezoito anos, que responderam o questionário do Centro Brasileiro de Informações Sobre Drogas Psicotrópicas. Empregou-se estatística descritiva, qui-quadrado e regressão logística múltipla para análise de dados. A prevalência de uso na vida, no ano e no mês foi maior para álcool, tabaco, benzodiazepínicos e estimulantes. Da amostra, 94% consumiram álcool na vida, 90% no ano e 79% no mês, sendo 14% caracterizado como uso pesado. As alunas consumiram mais benzodiazepínicos e estimulantes que os alunos. Os maiores de 20 anos de idade e os do sexo feminino evidenciaram menor chance de consumo de álcool no mês e aqueles com renda familiar mensal superior a dez salários mínimos apresentaram maior chance de consumo de maconha (OR: 1,92), cocaína (OR:4,63) e inalantes (OR:7,02). O padrão de consumo de substâncias psicoativas assemelha-se ao encontrado em outros grupos de universitários, salvo os benzodiazepínicos e estimulantes, sugerindo-se uma avaliação mais aprofundada desse consumo.<br>The objective of this epidemiologic transversal cut study was to investigate the consumption of psychoactive substances and their determinants between the nursery academics of the University of Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul State. 266 students, aging more than eighteen years old answered a questionnaire of the Brazilian Center of Information about Psychoactive Drugs. A descriptive statistics, qui-square and multiple logistics regression were carried out for the data analysis. Of the sample, 94% had consumed alcohol in the life, 90% in that year and 79% in that month, 14% were characterized as heavy users. The girls had consumed benzodiazepines and stimulants more than the boys. The ones aging 20 year and more and females had evidenced minor possibility of alcohol consumption in the month and those with a monthly family income lower than ten salaries presented a greater possibility of marijuana (OR: 1.92), cocaine (OR:4.63) and inhalants (OR:7.02) consumption. The standard of psychoactive substance consumption is similar than the one found in other groups of colleges student, except for the benzodiazepines and stimulants, suggesting itself a deeper evaluation of this consumption