Identifying the Signs of Currency Speculation in Hong Kong's Linked exchange Rate

This paper identifies the ex ante factors of currency speculation based on the experience of Hong Kong’s three episodes in 1988, 1998 and 2007. The dynamic conditional correlation models are used to study the inter-temporal interactions among the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Index futures and exchange rate difference. The logistic model is applied to study the probability of currency speculation. The empirical results indicate that unusual movements in the exchange rate difference, Hang Seng Index premium and open interest of futures contracts can be found in the period prior to and during currency speculations. In addition, the conditional correlation between stock market and exchange rate market declined sharply during the periods of currency speculation. The paper traces the disposition of the speculators.Currency speculation, linked exchange rate, Hong Kong

China's Capital and Productivity Measurement Using Financial Resources

This paper constructs China's capital stock, which is used in conjunction with a labor variable to estimate a Cobb-Douglas production function for the Chinese economy. Two panels of data are used one for capital formation and one for sources of investment finance. Both national and provincial data are used for these two panels, thus giving a total of four capital-stock series. The Cobb-Douglas estimates show that China's total factor productivity was about 3.4 percent in the post-reform years. Productivity of coastal provinces is higher than inner provinces. Among the various sources of investment finance, foreign direct investment is more efficient than state-funded capital stock.China economic reform; provincial growth and productivity; financial resources

The Optimal Level and Impact of Internal Factors on Growth

This paper empirically uses data from the world economy to show that performance of domestic factors are equally important to external factors when comes to growth. Various external and domestic factors are used to construct two separate indices and the principal component method is applied in the analysis. The empirical results show that given a different level of performance in the economy’s external factors, a higher performance in the internal factors will produce a higher growth rate. When the performance of an economy’s internal factors is extremely low, it would be appropriate for that economy first to improve its internal factors.Growth, external factors, domestic factors

Analyzing the Kuznets Relationship using Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods

This paper studies the income inequality and economic development relationship by using unbalanced panel data of OECD and non-OECD countries for the period 1962 - 2003. The nonparametric estimation results show that income inequality in OECD countries are almost on the backside of the inverted-U relationship, while non-OECD countries are approximately on the foreside, except that the relationship in both country groups shows an upturn at a high level of development. Development has an indirect effect on inequality through control variables, but the modes are different in the two country groups. The model specification tests show that the relationship is not necessarily captured by the conventional quadratic function. The cubic and fourth-degree polynomials, respectively, fit the OECD and non-OECD country groups best. The finding is robust regardless whether the specification uses control variables. Development plays a dominant role in mitigating inequality.Kuznets inverted-U; Nonparametric and semiparametric models; Unbalanced panel data

The Commutative Effect and Casuality of Openness and Indigenous Factors Among World Economies

The paper studies the commutative and causality relationship between economic openness and indigenous factors. The construction of the Openness Index and the Indigenous Index provides a measure on the extent of openness and indigenous development among world economies. The two indices are used to study their commutative effect and causality. The empirical findings show that there is a positive and significant static effect of openness on indigenous factors and vice versa; however the latter is larger. There are bi-directional dynamic causality relationships between openness and indigenous factors. Indigenous factors help to forecast openness factors and vice versa.Openness, indigeneity, panel data model, commutative effect, causality

The Changing Trade and Revealed Comparative Advantages of Asian and Latin American Manufacture Exports

Changes in comparative advantage should reflect changes in factor endowment, but increasingly, changes in trade policies also affect a region's trade performance. Based on the arguments in Balassa's stages of comparative advantage thesis, this paper looks at the performance of manufacture exports in a number of Asian and Latin American economies over the period 1981-1997 and examines the revealed comparative advantage indices between economies in East Asia, Southeast Asia and Latin America. Although the RCA measurement may not distinguish between the factor endowment effects from the trade policy effect, we argue that RCA measures provide indication on the movement in a region's comparative advantage. The evidence strongly suggests that despite the strong export performance experienced by East Asian economies, they are losing their comparative advantage to the lower-tier economies in Southeast Asia and Latin America.International Trade; Revealed Comparative Advantage; Manufacture Exports

Causality between Openness and Indigenous Factors among World Economies

The paper studies the causality relationship between economic openness and indigenous factors. The construction of the Openness Index and the Indigenous Index provides a measure on the extent of openness and indigenous development among world economies. The two indices are used to study their causality. The empirical findings show that there are bi-directional dynamic causality relationships between openness and indigenous factors. Indigenous factors help to forecast openness factors and vice versa.Openness, indigeneity, panel data model, causality test

Productivity and Manufacture Export Causality among World Regions: 1989-1999

This paper examines the causality relationships between manufacturing exports and productivity for five industry groups and six world regions for the period 1989-1999. Productivity is estimated by using value-added figures, and manufacture export data are adjusted by the revealed comparative advantage index. The causality tests between export and factor productivity concluded that the more industrialized European economies are more export-driven than productivity-driven than the other less industrialized European economies. East Asia economies showed improvements in both export and productivity, and the United States had an advantage in productivity and a balance growth in trade. The export performance of countries in South Asia and South East Asia were average, though their productivity has improved. Latin American countries are still in the exporting stage.Total factor productivity, revealed comparative advantage, causality

Inequality and development: Evidence from semiparametric estimation with panel data

Evidences from nonparametric and semiparametric unbalanced panel data models with fixed effects show that Kuznet’s inverted-U relationship is confirmed when economic development reaches a threshold. The model tests justify semiparametric specification. The integrated net contribution of control variables to inequality reduction is significant.Kuznet’s inverted-U, Semiparametric model, Unbalanced panel data

Analyzing Productivity Growth: Evidence from China’s Manufacturing Industries

This article examines the growth attributes of manufacturing industries in China for the sample period of 1999-2007. All manufacturing industries are grouped into and four main industry groups and four geographical regions. A revised Solow’s growth method is used to decompose the growth attributes into input growth, scale effect, technical progress, and technical efficiency change. A stochastic frontier model is applied to the translog production function. The empirical findings show a strong presence of technical progress, while labor input has rapidly been replaced by human capital. Structural transformation in the industrial sector is evident, so as regional imbalances.China industries, productivity, efficiency, technical progress, stochastic frontier model