Modelling temperature-dependent larval development and\ud subsequent demographic Allee effects in adult populations of the alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus

Climate change has been attributed as a driver of changes to ecological systems worldwide and understanding the effects of climate change at individual, population, community, and ecosystem levels has become a primary concern of ecology. One avenue toward understanding the impacts of climate change on an ecosystem is through the study of environmentally sensitive species. Butterflies are sensitive to climatic changes due to their reliance on environmental cues such as temperature and photoperiod, which regulate the completion of life history stages. As such, the population dynamics of butterflies may offer insight into the impacts of climate change on the health of an ecosystem. In this paper we study the effects of rearing temperature on the alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus (Rocky Mountain Apollo), both directly through individual phenological changes and indirectly through adult reproductive success at the population level. Our approach is to formulate a mathematical model of individual development parameterized by experimental data and link larval development to adult reproductive success. A Bernoulli process model describes temperature-dependent larval phenology, and a system of ordinary differential equations is used to study impacts on reproductive success. The phenological model takes field temperature data as its input and predicts a temporal distribution of adult emergence, which in turn controls the dynamics of the reproductive success model. We find that warmer spring and summer temperatures increase reproductive success, while cooler temperatures exacerbate a demographic Allee effect, suggesting that observed yearly fluctuations in P. smintheus population size may be driven by inter-annual temperature variability. Model predictions are validated against mark-recapture field data from 2001 and 2003 − 2009

A multiphase model describing vascular tumour growth

In this paper we present a new model framework for studying vascular tumour growth, in which the blood vessel density is explicitly considered. Our continuum model comprises conservation of mass and momentum equations for the volume fractions of tumour cells, extracellular material and blood vessels. We include the physical mechanisms that we believe to be dominant, namely birth and death of tumour cells, supply and removal of extracellular fluid via the blood and lymph drainage vessels, angiogenesis and blood vessel occlusion. We suppose that the tumour cells move in order to relieve the increase in mechanical stress caused by their proliferation. We show how to reduce the model to a system of coupled partial differential equations for the volume fraction of tumour cells and blood vessels and the phase averaged velocity of the mixture. We consider possible parameter regimes of the resulting model. We solve the equations numerically in these cases, and discuss the resulting behaviour. The model is able to reproduce tumour structure that is found `in vivo' in certain cases. Our framework can be easily modified to incorporate the effect of other phases, or to include the effect of drugs

An investigation of fracture toughness, fatigue-crack growth, sustained-load flaw growth, and impact properties of three pressure vessel steels

The elastic fracture toughness of the three steels is shown to not decrease significantly with decreasing temperature from room temperature to about 244 K (-20 F.). The elastic fracture toughness of the three steels increased with increasing specimen width and thickness. The fatigue-crack-growth data for all three steels fall into relatively narrow scatter bands on plots of rate against stress-intensity range. An equation is shown to predict the upper bounds of the scatter bands reasonably well. Charpy impact energies decreased with decreasing temperature in the nominal temperature range from room temperature to 244 K (-20 F). The nil-ductility temperatures of the steels are discussed

Public views on the donation and use of human biological samples in biomedical research: a mixed methods study

Objective A mixed methods study exploring the UK general public's willingness to donate human biosamples (HBSs) for biomedical research.<p></p> Setting Cross-sectional focus groups followed by an online survey.<p></p> Participants Twelve focus groups (81 participants) selectively sampled to reflect a range of demographic groups; 1110 survey responders recruited through a stratified sampling method with quotas set on sex, age, geographical location, socioeconomic group and ethnicity.<p></p> Main outcome measures (1) Identify participants’ willingness to donate HBSs for biomedical research, (2) explore acceptability towards donating different types of HBSs in various settings and (3) explore preferences regarding use and access to HBSs.<p></p> Results 87% of survey participants thought donation of HBSs was important and 75% wanted to be asked to donate in general. Responders who self-reported having some or good knowledge of the medical research process were significantly more likely to want to donate (p<0.001). Reasons why focus group participants saw donation as important included: it was a good way of reciprocating for the medical treatment received; it was an important way of developing drugs and treatments; residual tissue would otherwise go to waste and they or their family members might benefit. The most controversial types of HBSs to donate included: brain post mortem (29% would donate), eyes post mortem (35%), embryos (44%), spare eggs (48%) and sperm (58%). Regarding the use of samples, there were concerns over animal research (34%), research conducted outside the UK (35%), and research conducted by pharmaceutical companies (56%), although education and discussion were found to alleviate such concerns.<p></p> Conclusions There is a high level of public support and willingness to donate HBSs for biomedical research. Underlying concerns exist regarding the use of certain types of HBSs and conditions under which they are used. Improved education and more controlled forms of consent for sensitive samples may mitigate such concerns.<p></p&gt

The Cosmic Microwave Background and Inflation Parameters

We review the currrent cosmic parameter determinations of relevance to inflation using the WMAP-1year, Boomerang, CBI, Acbar and other CMB data. The basic steps in the pipelines which determine the bandpowers from the raw data from which these estimations are made are summarized. We forecast how the precision is likely to improve with more years of WMAP in combination with future ground-based experiments and with Planck. We address whether the current data indicates strong breaking from uniform acceleration through the relatively small region of the inflaton potential that the CMB probes, manifest in the much-discussed running spectral index or in even more radical braking/breaking scenarios. Although some weak ``anomalies'' appear in the current data, the statistical case is not there. However increased precision, at the high multipole end and with polarization measurements, will significantly curtail current freedom.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables, Int. J. Theor. Phys. 2004, ed. E. Verdaguer, "Peyresq Physics 8", "The Early Universe: Confronting theory with observations" (June 21-27, 2003

Consent for the use of human biological samples for biomedical research: a mixed methods study exploring the UK public’s preferences

OBJECTIVE: A mixed-methods study exploring the UK general public's views towards consent for the use of biosamples for biomedical research.<p></p> SETTING: Cross-sectional population-based focus groups followed by an online survey.<p></p> PARTICIPANTS: 12 focus groups (81 participants) selectively sampled to reflect a range of demographic groups; 1110 survey responders recruited through a stratified sampling method with quotas set on sex, age, geographical location, socioeconomic group and ethnicity.<p></p> MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Views on the importance of consent when donating residual biosamples for medical research; (2) preferences for opt-in or opt-out consent approaches and (3) preferences for different consent models.<p></p> RESULTS: Participants believed obtaining consent for use of residual biosamples was important as it was 'morally correct' to ask, and enabled people to make an active choice and retain control over their biosamples. Survey responders preferred opt-in consent (55%); the strongest predictor was being from a low socioeconomic group (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.41 to 3.57, p=0.001) and having a religious affiliation (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.81, p=0.04). Focus group participants had a slight preference for opt-out consent because by using this approach more biosamples would be available and facilitate research. Concerning preferred models of consent for research use of biosamples, survey responders preferred specific consent with recontact for each study for which their biosamples are eligible. Focus group participants preferred generic consent as it provided 'flexibility for researchers' and reduced the likelihood that biosamples would be wasted. The strongest predictor for preferring specific consent was preferring opt-in consent (OR 4.58, 95% CI 3.30 to 6.35, p=0.015) followed by non-'White' ethnicity (OR 2.94, 95% CI 1.23 to 7.14, p<0.001).<p></p> CONCLUSIONS: There is a preference among the UK public for ongoing choice and control over donated biosamples; however, increased knowledge and opportunity for discussion is associated with acceptance of less restrictive consent models for some people.<p></p&gt

Ion-ion dynamic structure factor, acoustic modes and equation of state of two-temperature warm dense aluminum

The ion-ion dynamical structure factor and the equation of state of warm dense aluminum in a two-temperature quasi-equilibrium state, with the electron temperature higher than the ion temperature, are investigated using molecular-dynamics simulations based on ion-ion pair potentials constructed from a neutral pseudoatom model. Such pair potentials based on density functional theory are parameter-free and depend directly on the electron temperature and indirectly on the ion temperature, enabling efficient computation of two-temperature properties. Comparison with ab initio simulations and with other average-atom calculations for equilibrium aluminum shows good agreement, justifying a study of quasi-equilibrium situations. Analyzing the van Hove function, we find that ion-ion correlations vanish in a time significantly smaller than the electron-ion relaxation time so that dynamical properties have a physical meaning for the quasi-equilibrium state. A significant increase in the speed of sound is predicted from the modification of the dispersion relation of the ion acoustic mode as the electron temperature is increased. The two-temperature equation of state including the free energy, internal energy and pressure is also presented