The Effects of Aquatic Invasive Species on Property Values: Evidence from a Quasi-Random Experiment

The invasion of ecosystems by non-native species is widely considered to be a principal threat to global biological diversity, yet the social costs of invasive species are not well-understood. The purpose of this study is to estimate a hedonic model of lakeshore property values to quantify the effects of a common aquatic invasive species – Eurasian Watermilfoil – on property values across an extensive system of over 170 lakes in the northern forest region of Wisconsin. In addition to providing empirical evidence as to the potential benefits from reducing the spread of invasive species, this paper also develops a quasi-experimental methodology to identify the effects of changes in endogenous neighborhood amenities within the commonly estimated hedonic framework. In our application, a lake is more likely to be invaded with Milfoil if it is more popular with recreational boaters. Therefore, since lakes popular with recreational boaters are also likely to be popular with potential residents, and since many aspects of a lake’s amenities may be difficult to quantify, the likelihood of Milfoil invasions is endogenous in a hedonic price equation. Our identification strategy is based on a spatial difference-in-difference specification, and uses fixed effects to control for observed and unobserved neighborhood effects, while exploiting changes in the Milfoil status of several lakes during the time period of our data. Results indicate that lakes invaded with Milfoil experienced an average 13% decrease in land values after invasion. The Milfoil results are robust across linear and non-linear specifications.Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

POLICIES TO REDUCE FOREST FRAGMENTATION: COMBINING ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH GIS-BASED LANDSCAPE SIMULATIONS

Forest fragmentation is a primary threat to terrestrial biodiversity. We combine a parcel-level econometric model of land-use transitions with spatially-explicit landscape simulations to predict the empirical distribution of fragmentation outcomes under given market conditions and policy scenarios. Our model explains transitions between forest, agricultural, and urban uses, allowing us to model land use change in both rural and urban areas. A Monte Carlo simulation approach links econometrically-derived transition probabilities to GIS maps for the prediction of the spatial properties of habitat change.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The Effects of Aquatic Invasive Species on Property Values: Evidence from a Quasi-random Experiment

This study uses hedonic analysis to estimate the effects of a common aquatic invasive species--Eurasian Watermilfoil (milfoil)--on property values across an extensive system of over 170 lakes in the northern forest region of Wisconsin. Since milfoil is inadvertently spread by recreational boaters, and since boaters are more likely to visit attractive lakes, variables indicating the presence of milfoil are endogenous in a hedonic model. Using an identification strategy based on a spatial difference-in-differences specification, results indicate that lakes invaded with milfoil experienced an average 13% decrease in land values after invasion.

Optimal Economic Landscapes with Habitat Fragmentation Effects

Habitat fragmentation is widely considered a primary threat to biodiversity. This paper develops a theoretical model of land use to analyze the optimal conservation of landscapes when land quality is spatially heterogeneous and wildlife habitat is fragmented and socially valuable. When agriculture is the primary cause of fragmentation, we show that reforestation efforts should be targeted to the most fragmented landscapes with an aggregate share of forest equal to a threshold, defined by the ratio of the opportunity cost of conversion to the social value of core forest. When urban development is the primary cause of fragmentation, we show how spatial heterogeneity in amenities and household neighbor preferences affect the optimal landscape and the design of land-use policies.Land Economics/Use,

Empirical Methods for Modeling Landscape Change, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Targeting Incentives to Reduce Habitat Fragmentation

This paper develops a theoretical model to analyze the spatial targeting of incentives for the restoration of forested landscapes when wildlife habitat can be enhanced by reducing fragmentation. The key theoretical result is that the marginal net benefits of increasing forest are convex, indicating that corner solutions--converting either none or all of the agricultural land in a section to forest--may be optimal. Corner solutions are directly linked to the spatial process determining habitat benefits and the regulator's incomplete information regarding landowner opportunity costs. We present findings from a large-scale empirical landscape simulation that supports our key theoretical results.

Effects of Environmental Zoning on Household Sorting: Empirical Evidence and Ecological Implications

In this paper we present a preliminary analysis of whether and how spatial variation in environmental attributes affects the residential sorting of households with heterogeneous preferences. An important implication of such sorting arises if variation in preferences over environmental attributes is correlated with household activities affecting the local ecosystem, such as the replacement of native vegetation with lawns, and the removal of course woody habitat from a lake. In this case the sorting process may engender differential evolution of local ecosystems (lakes) with the same initial ecological state. The model examined in the paper has the potential to statistically examine this issue, and therefore holds promise for understanding the behavioral implications of land use policies designed to protect local ecosystems. By facilitating the grouping of different types of households onto different lakes, for instance, lakeshore zoning policies may engender differentiation in the ecological evolution of lakes beyond what would be expected from the zoning policies themselves.Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

The Dynamic Effects of Open-Space Conservation Policies on Residential Development Density

Recent economic analyses emphasize that designated open-space increases the rents on neighboring residential land, and likewise, the probability of undeveloped land converting to residential uses. This paper addresses a different question: What is the effect of local open space conservation on the rate of growth in the density of existing residential land? The analysis is relevant for exurban development and also for remote lakeshore development, where shoreline development density can rapidly increase over time and open-space policies are often advocated as a way to protect ecosystems by reducing development. A discrete choice econometric model of lakeshore development is estimated with a unique parcel-level spatial-temporal dataset, using maximum simulated likelihood to account for i) the panel structure of the data, ii) unobserved spatial heterogeneity, and iii) sample selection resulting from correlated unobservables. Results indicate that, contrary to the intuition derived from the current literature, local open space conservation policies do not increase the rate of growth in residential development density, and some open space conservation policies may reduce the rate of growth in residential development density. This is consistent with land-value complementarity between local open space and parcel size. Spatially-explicit simulations at the landscape scale examine the relative effects of conservation policies on the time path of development.