Economic Growth and Manpower. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 6 1960(?)

It is the purpose of this note to examine briefly the implications of economic growth in Ireland on manpower requirements. As starting point of the analysis an overall growth rate 3% p.a. as from 1961 will be assumed. The possibility of a higher growth rate will also be considered

Trends in the Irish Consumption Pattern. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 7 1960(?)

In the present study, the distribution of total consumption expenditure in Ireland over 11 broad commodity groups is investigated. The basic data were obtained from tabulations used in the preparation of the national income and expenditure tables for the years 1953 to 1959 inclusive. The figures include expenditure in Ireland by non-residents, whilst expenditure outside the state by Irish residents has been excluded

Macro-Economic Model Building for Ireland. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 14 1962(?)

Macro-models describing the working of a nation's economy have been constructed for a number of countries, differing from each other in the number of variables used, the extent of disaggregation introduced, and the complexity of interrelationships. At one end of the scale there are models consisting of a few equations only, like the one, developed for the Federal Republic of Germany by Gehrig (1963); at the other end, there are very detailed structure like the Social Science Research Council model for the United States of America (Klein, 1964). A new econometric model is not necessarily of general interest merely because it adds a new country to the list of those for which models have been constructed. However, a number of problems arise in model building which have to be answered anew in each context, in the light of the available data and the main purpose for which the model is constructed. It is hoped that the very simple model presented here still offers a few points of general interest

A Further Analysis of Irish Household Budget Data, 1951-1952. ESRI General Research Series Paper No. 23, August 1964

In a previous study (Leser, x962) which will be briefly referred to as E.R.I. Paper No. 4, some of the published results of the 1951-52 household budget enquiry (Central Statistics Office, 1954) were analysed. In view of the limitations of the data which were available in published form, it was at that time considered doubtful whether a very detailed commodity breakdown was warranted for the purposes of constructing expenditure functions and estimating elasticities of demand. Moreover, the mathematical model adopted in E.R.I. Paper No. 4 made extensive computations rather laborious. In view of the interest in economic planning and in econometric results helping to supply a basis for development plans which has recently been aroused in this country, it is now felt that the results of a more detailed analysis to which the household budget data may be subjected, should be placed on record. Thus, estimates of expenditure elasticities will be given for 87 commodities or components of total expenditure as well as for I4 commodity groups; an attempt is made to isolate the effects of variations in household size and in household composition ; and social class differences in expenditure patterns are subjected to scrutiny

The Role of Macro-Economic Models in Short-Term Forecasting. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 24 1965(?)

The application of econometric models to short-term forecasting, that is to say, forecasting up to one year ahead, has naturally enough been extensively discussed. Some of the discussion has centred on the usefulness of econometric models in general for this purpose as against other forecasting methods. It is clearly realised that short-term forecasting by means of non-econometric methods is not only possible but may give better results than are obtained by the use of econometric models. It is therefore quite legitimate to argue against the use of models in the realm of short-term forecasting. If, on the other hand, one believes that econometric models can make a useful contribution in this field, then the question arises what kind of models are most appropriate for this purpose

Direct estimation of seasonal variables. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 26 1965

In estimating the seasonal component of a time series which is assumed to contain a trend and a residual in addition, the usual procedure is to specify, estimate and eliminate the trend before proceeding to the estimation of seasonal variation. Modifications are possible which permit the simultaneous estimation of trend and seasonal variation, but the results still depend on the assumptions made with regard to the form of trend

A New Basic Model of the Irish Economy. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 41 1966(?)

The problems involved in the construction of econometric macro-models are well known and have been discussed extensively in general terms, and also in relation to Irish data. One of the difficulties arises out of the nature of the model and the purposes which it is intended to serve. If the equations of the model are designed to explain the working of the economy, they may not be very suitable for short-term forecasting; if on the other hand they make considerable use of leading indicators and other forecasting devices, their theoretical content may be very limited

Seasonality in Irish Economic Statistics. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 20 1962(?)

In analyzing short-term economic movements the presence of seasonality in economic indicators is a serious obstacle as it may tend to exaggerate or conceal true changes in economic conditions. It is, therefore, of some importance, firstly, to ascertain which of the main series are affected by seasonal factors and which are not and secondly, to investigate whether seasonality can be reliably measured and allowed for by appropriate corrections. It is with these two problems that the present study is concerned

Industrialisation in Developing Countries. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 40 1966(?)

There is much discussion in progress about industrialisation and about developing countries, but it is not self-evident what exactly these mean. Conceptually the most useful indicator of a country's state of industrialisation may be the value added in manufacturing per head of total population, reduced to a common currency and to constant prices as required. This has been estimated by the U.N. Statistical Office for a large number of countries with regard to 1950 and other bench-mark years, expressed in 1953 U.S. dollars. Only "market economies" are covered; comparisons with the U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe are only possible on the basis of industrial activity as a whole (incl. mining, electricity and gas), and comparable data are lacking for mainland China and several other countries

A further note on economic growth and manpower. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 12, January 1963

In a previous note [i], a possible pattern of economic growth was considered and its implications on manpower requirements were examined. If assumptions on labour force size, together with assumptions on productivity growth, are chosen as startingpoints instead of postulating a fixed overall growth rate, an optimisation problem solvable by linear programming is obtained. The assumptions made here are, of course, to a large extent arbitrary, but they are consistent with the approach adopted in [1]