ICT Diffusion and Economic Growth in New Zealand

Two different theoretical treatments of technology diffusion in an economy are examined. The traditional model based on the aggregate production function approach first introduced by Solow (1957) assumes technology is unstructured and arrives as a continuous exogenous flow. This model predicts that the diffusion of new technologies will be contemporaneously correlated with growth in economic performance indicators. An alternative view explicitly models technological structure in the form of complementarities. It also incorporates the observation that new general purpose technologies (GPTs) invariably emerge in a crude form lacking many of the complementarities that enable them to become productive. This view predicts that when new technologies emerge costly investment in developing complementary technologies must take place and thus there will be a lag between the new technology’s introduction and observed growth in economic performance indicators. These two views articulate two general empirically testable hypotheses that are captured in a number of specific tests. One such test measures diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) as an independent phenomenon and compares its times series pattern to that of the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in New Zealand. New Zealand’s experience in consistent with other OECD economies where the diffusion of ICT has occurred at the same time as a TFP slowdown. Another test measures relative ICT-skilled labour demand. Findings support the non-traditional view’s prediction that ICT-skilled labour will increase with the diffusion of ICT technology in New Zealand.ICT, Productivity, Diffusion Technology

Physical growth and ethnic inequality in New Zealand prisons, 1840–1975

© 2015 Taylor & Francis. The British colonization of New Zealand after 1840 was marked by an unusual concern compared to other settler colonies to incorporate the indigenous Maori population into the new society. But despite a continuing political rhetoric of protection and sovereignty, Maori have historically had lower living standards and, since the 1920s, higher rates of incarceration than European-descended New Zealanders (Pakeha). In this article, the authors examine differences between Maori and Pakeha over 130 years using prison records. Aggregate data from the Ministry of Justice shows long-term change and differences in incarceration rates. Using a data set of all extant registers of men entering New Zealand prisons, the authors show change over time in convictions and in height. The adult statures of Maori and Pakeha were similar for men born before 1900, but marked differences emerged among cohorts born during the twentieth century. By the Second World War, the gap in adult stature widened to around 3 cm, before narrowing for men born after the Second World War. Periods of divergence in stature are paralleled by divergence in fertility and indicators of family size, suggesting the possibility that increasing fertility stressed the economic situation of Maori families. The prison evidence suggests that inequalities in ‘net nutrition’ between Maori and Pakeha are long-standing but not unchanging – indeed, they increased for cohorts born in the early twentieth century. A subset of the data describing adolescents confirms that, among those born after 1945, the ethnic differential was already visible by the age of 16

Genuine savings as a test of New Zealand weak sustainability

The key aims of this paper are to: (1) to extend the World Bank’s (WB) measure of genuine savings (GS) for New Zealand by using a longer time series of data, 1950–2015; (2) improve GS estimates for New Zealand by adding additional dimensions to GS, i.e. forestry; (3) investigate the relationship between several GS measures and the discounted values of GDP per capita and consumption per capita, used to proxy well-being; (4) test a series of hypotheses which relate GS to the change in future well-being using the framework proposed by Ferreira et al. (World Bank Econ Rev 22(2):233–248, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhn008) and (5) investigate the effects of a growing population on the availability of future capital stocks by considering the consequences of “wealth-dilution” as defined by Ferreira et al. (2008). The paper makes a contribution to the literature on GS, particularly in the context of New Zealand, by considering patterns of GS and well-being over a longer time span of data than have been previously used and add to a relatively small, but growing literature on tests of GS using long or relatively long time-series data [see, e.g. Greasley et al. (J Environ Econ Manag 67(2):171–188, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2013.12.001, Environ Dev Econ 22:674–98, 2017) and Hanley et al. (Enviro Resour Econ 63(2):313–338, (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-015-9928-7]. We conclude, based on the data used here, that New Zealand’s GS has been positive (i.e. weakly sustainable), since the start of our data series, even without allowing for the contribution of technological advancement. However, we also conclude that the effects of a growing population and a savings gap have led to a “wealth-dilution” effect needed to maintain real wealth per capita, as we estimate that there was an average savings gap (GS as a percentage of gross national savings) over the period 1955–2015 of 0.5% per annum