Modelling a Hot Horizon in Global 21 cm Experimental Foregrounds

The 21 cm signal from cosmic hydrogen is one of the most propitious probes of the early Universe. The detection of this signal would reveal key information about the first stars, the nature of dark matter, and early structure formation. We explore the impact of an emissive and reflective, or `hot', horizon on the recovery of this signal for global 21 cm experiments. It is demonstrated that using physically motivated foreground models to recover the sky-averaged 21 cm signal one must accurately describe the horizon around the radiometer. We show that not accounting for the horizon will lead to a signal recovery with residuals an order of magnitude larger than the injected signal, with a log Bayesian evidence of almost 1600 lower than when one does account for the horizon. It is shown that signal recovery is sensitive to incorrect values of soil temperature and reflection coefficient in describing the horizon, with even a 10% error in reflectance causing twofold increases in the RMSE of a given fit. We also show these parameters may be fitted using Bayesian inference to mitigate for these issues without overfitting and mischaracterising a non-detection. We further demonstrate that signal recovery is sensitive to errors in measurements of the horizon projection onto the sky, but fitting for soil temperature and reflection coefficients with priors that extend beyond physical expectation can resolve these problems. We show that using an expanded prior range can reliably recover the signal even when the height of the horizon is mismeasured by up to 20%, decreasing the RMSE from the model that does not perform this fitting by a factor of 9.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, 5 table

Simulations of primary beam effects on the cosmic bispectrum phase observed with the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array

The 21~cm transition from neutral Hydrogen promises to be the best observational probe of the Epoch of Reionisation. The main difficulty in measuring the 21 cm signal is the presence of bright foregrounds that require very accurate interferometric calibration. Closure quantities may circumvent the calibration requirements but may be, however, affected by direction dependent effects, particularly antenna primary beam responses. This work investigates the impact of antenna primary beams affected by mutual coupling on the closure phase and its power spectrum. Our simulations show that primary beams affected by mutual coupling lead to a leakage of foreground power into the EoR window, which can be up to $\sim4$ orders magnitude higher than the case where no mutual coupling is considered. This leakage is, however, essentially confined at $k < 0.3$~$h$~Mpc$^{-1}$ for triads that include 29~m baselines. The leakage magnitude is more pronounced when bright foregrounds appear in the antenna sidelobes, as expected. Finally, we find that triads that include mutual coupling beams different from each other have power spectra similar to triads that include the same type of mutual coupling beam, indicating that beam-to-beam variation within triads (or visibility pairs) is not the major source of foreground leakage in the EoR window

Spectral performance of SKA log-periodic antennas I: Mitigating spectral artefacts in SKA1-LOW 21 cm cosmology experiments

This paper is the first in a series of papers describing the impact of antenna instrumental artefacts on the 21-cm cosmology experiments to be carried out by the low frequency instrument (SKA1-LOW) of the Square Kilometre Array telescope (SKA), i.e., the Cosmic Dawn (CD) and the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). The smoothness of the passband response of the current log-periodic antenna being developed for the SKA1-LOW is analyzed using numerical electromagnetic simulations. The amplitude variations over the frequency range are characterized using low-order polynomials defined locally, in order to study the impact of the passband smoothness in the instrument calibration and CD/EoR Science. A solution is offered to correct a fast ripple found at 60~MHz during a test campaign at the SKA site at the Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory, Western Australia in September 2015 with a minor impact on the telescope's performance and design. A comparison with the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array antenna is also shown demonstrating the potential use of the SKA1-LOW antenna for the Delay Spectrum technique to detect the EoR

The Impact of Beam Variations on Power Spectrum Estimation for 21 cm Cosmology II: Mitigation of Foreground Systematics for HERA

One key challenge in detecting 21 cm cosmological signal at z > 6 is to separate the cosmological signal from foreground emission. This can be studied in a power spectrum space where the foreground is confined to low delay modes whereas the cosmological signal can spread out to high delay modes. When there is a calibration error, however, chromaticity of gain errors propagates to the power spectrum estimate and contaminates the modes for cosmological detection. The Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) employs a high-precision calibration scheme using redundancy in measurements. In this study, we focus on the gain errors induced by nonredundancies arising from feed offset relative to the HERA's 14 meter parabolic dish element, and investigate how to mitigate the chromatic gain errors using three different methods: restricting baseline lengths for calibration, smoothing the antenna gains, and applying a temporal filter prior to calibration. With 2 cm/2 degree perturbations for translation/tilting motions, a level achievable under normal HERA operating conditions, the combination of the baseline cut and temporal filtering indicates that the spurious gain feature due to nonredundancies is significantly reduced, and the power spectrum recovers the clean foreground-free region. We found that the mitigation technique works even for large feed motions but in order to keep a stable calibration process, the feed positions need to be constrained to 2 cm for translation motions and 2 degree for tilting offset relative to the dish's vertex.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Cerebrovascular events and outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: The SVIN COVID-19 Multinational Registry

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been associated with a significant risk of thrombotic events in critically ill patients. Aim To summarize the findings of a multinational observational cohort of patients with SARS-CoV-2 and cerebrovascular disease. Methods Retrospective observational cohort of consecutive adults evaluated in the emergency department and/or admitted with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across 31 hospitals in four countries (1 February 2020–16 June 2020). The primary outcome was the incidence rate of cerebrovascular events, inclusive of acute ischemic stroke, intracranial hemorrhages (ICH), and cortical vein and/or sinus thrombosis (CVST). Results Of the 14,483 patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2, 172 were diagnosed with an acute cerebrovascular event (1.13% of cohort; 1130/100,000 patients, 95%CI 970–1320/100,000), 68/171 (40.5%) were female and 96/172 (55.8%) were between the ages 60 and 79 years. Of these, 156 had acute ischemic stroke (1.08%; 1080/100,000 95%CI 920–1260/100,000), 28 ICH (0.19%; 190/100,000 95%CI 130–280/100,000), and 3 with CVST (0.02%; 20/100,000, 95%CI 4–60/100,000). The in-hospital mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2-associated stroke was 38.1% and for ICH 58.3%. After adjusting for clustering by site and age, baseline stroke severity, and all predictors of in-hospital mortality found in univariate regression (p \u3c 0.1: male sex, tobacco use, arrival by emergency medical services, lower platelet and lymphocyte counts, and intracranial occlusion), cryptogenic stroke mechanism (aOR 5.01, 95%CI 1.63–15.44, p \u3c 0.01), older age (aOR 1.78, 95%CI 1.07–2.94, p = 0.03), and lower lymphocyte count on admission (aOR 0.58, 95%CI 0.34–0.98, p = 0.04) were the only independent predictors of mortality among patients with stroke and COVID-19. Conclusions COVID-19 is associated with a small but significant risk of clinically relevant cerebrovascular events, particularly ischemic stroke. The mortality rate is high for COVID-19-associated cerebrovascular complications; therefore, aggressive monitoring and early intervention should be pursued to mitigate poor outcomes

Global CO2 Emissions From Dry Inland Waters Share Common Drivers Across Ecosystems

Many inland waters exhibit complete or partial desiccation, or have vanished due to global change, exposing sediments to the atmosphere. Yet, data on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from these sediments are too scarce to upscale emissions for global estimates or to understand their fundamental drivers. Here, we present the results of a global survey covering 196 dry inland waters across diverse ecosystem types and climate zones. We show that their CO2 emissions share fundamental drivers and constitute a substantial fraction of the carbon cycled by inland waters. CO2 emissions were consistent across ecosystem types and climate zones, with local characteristics explaining much of the variability. Accounting for such emissions increases global estimates of carbon emissions from inland waters by 6% (~0.12 Pg C y−1). Our results indicate that emissions from dry inland waters represent a significant and likely increasing component of the inland waters carbon cycle