Downscaling Reanalysis over Continental Africa with a Regional Model: NCEP Versus ERA Interim Forcing

Five annual climate cycles (1998-2002) are simulated for continental Africa and adjacent oceans by a regional atmospheric model (RM3). RM3 horizontal grid spacing is 0.44deg at 28 vertical levels. Each of 2 simulation ensembles is driven by lateral boundary conditions from each of 2 alternative reanalysis data sets. One simulation downs cales National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis 2 (NCPR2) and the other the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA-I). NCPR2 data are archived at 2.5deg grid spacing, while a recent version of ERA-I provides data at 0.75deg spacing. ERA-I-forced simulations are recomrp. ended by the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Comparisons of the 2 sets of simulations with each other and with observational evidence assess the relative performance of each downscaling system. A third simulation also uses ERA-I forcing, but degraded to the same horizontal resolution as NCPR2. RM3-simulated pentad and monthly mean precipitation data are compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data, gridded at 0.5deg, and RM3-simulated circulation is compared to both reanalyses. Results suggest that each downscaling system provides advantages and disadvantages relative to the other. The RM3/NCPR2 achieves a more realistic northward advance of summer monsoon rains over West Africa, but RM3/ERA-I creates the more realistic monsoon circulation. Both systems recreate some features of JulySeptember 1999 minus 2002 precipitation differences. Degrading the resolution of ERA-I driving data unrealistically slows the monsoon circulation and considerably diminishes summer rainfall rates over West Africa. The high resolution of ERA-I data, therefore, contributes to the quality of the downscaling, but NCPR2laterai boundary conditions nevertheless produce better simulations of some features

The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere

Anyone Can Become a Troll: Causes of Trolling Behavior in Online Discussions

In online communities, antisocial behavior such as trolling disrupts constructive discussion. While prior work suggests that trolling behavior is confined to a vocal and antisocial minority, we demonstrate that ordinary people can engage in such behavior as well. We propose two primary trigger mechanisms: the individual's mood, and the surrounding context of a discussion (e.g., exposure to prior trolling behavior). Through an experiment simulating an online discussion, we find that both negative mood and seeing troll posts by others significantly increases the probability of a user trolling, and together double this probability. To support and extend these results, we study how these same mechanisms play out in the wild via a data-driven, longitudinal analysis of a large online news discussion community. This analysis reveals temporal mood effects, and explores long range patterns of repeated exposure to trolling. A predictive model of trolling behavior shows that mood and discussion context together can explain trolling behavior better than an individual's history of trolling. These results combine to suggest that ordinary people can, under the right circumstances, behave like trolls.Comment: Best Paper Award at CSCW 201

A High-Rate, Heterogeneous Data Set from the Darpa Urban Challenge

This paper describes a data set collected by MIT’s autonomous vehicle Talos during the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge. Data from a high-precision navigation system, five cameras, 12 SICK planar laser range scanners, and a Velodyne high-density laser range scanner were synchronized and logged to disk for 90 km of travel. In addition to documenting a number of large loop closures useful for developing mapping and localization algorithms, this data set also records the first robotic traffic jam and two autonomous vehicle collisions. It is our hope that this data set will be useful to the autonomous vehicle community, especially those developing robotic perception capabilities.United States. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Urban Challenge, ARPA Order No. W369/00, Program Code DIRO, issued by DARPA/CMO under Contract No. HR0011-06-C-0149

Systematic pathological component scores for skin-containing vascularized composite allografts

Clinical management of skin-containing vascularized composite allografts (VCA) requires accurate assessment of the graft status, typically based on skin biopsies. The Banff 2007 Working Classification proposed 4 grades of acute rejection, but did not score individual features or include vascular rejection. Here we report a systematic scoring system developed from MHC-mismatched porcine skin-containing VCA. Biopsies from 20 VCA, 9 autologous skin flaps and 9 normal skin were analyzed to optimize the methodology and set thresholds. The components quantified were: perivascular cells/dermal vessel (pc), perivascular dermal infiltrate area (pa), luminal leukocytes/capillary or venule (c), epidermal infiltrate (ei), epidermal apoptosis or necrosis (e), endarteritis (v), and chronic allograft vasculopathy (cav). To evaluate prognostic value, we scored a separate group of 28 serial biopsies from 8 recipients (4 that were ultimately accepted and 4 that rejected. Parameters on the initial biopsies predicting later graft rejection included pc (p < 0.02), pa (p < 0.03), ei (p < 0.0005), e (p < 0.003) and c (p < 0.005). Reproducibility between 2 pathologists blinded to clinical data was acceptable, with weighted kappa scores for pc (0.673), pa (0.399), ei (0.464), e (0.663), v (0.766), and c (0.642). This component scoring system can be adapted clinically, since human and porcine skin are highly similar. Vascular lesions in VCA are also highlighted in this system and could impact graft outcome. The component score approach complements Banff 2007 grades and will enable the establishment of clinically significant thresholds

The Monitoring and Assessment Plan (MAP) Greater Everglades Wetlands Module- Landscape Pattern- Ridge, Slough, and Tree Island Mosaics: Year 1 Annual Report

In the current managed Everglades system, the pre-drainage, patterned mosaic of sawgrass ridges, sloughs and tree islands has been substantially altered or reduced largely as a result of human alterations to historic ecological and hydrological processes that sustained landscape patterns. The pre-compartmentalization ridge and slough landscape was a mosaic of sloughs, elongated sawgrass ridges (50-200m wide), and tree islands. The ridges and sloughs and tree islands were elongated in the direction of the water flow, with roughly equal area of ridge and slough. Over the past decades, the ridge-slough topographic relief and spatial patterning have degraded in many areas of the Everglades. Nutrient enriched areas have become dominated by Typha with little topographic relief; areas of reduced flow have lost the elongated ridge-slough topography; and ponded areas with excessively long hydroperiods have experienced a decline in ridge prevalence and shape, and in the number of tree islands (Sklar et al. 2004, Ogden 2005)

Via-SEES: Variability in Atmosphere from Solar Energetic Electrons

Variability In Atmosphere from Solar Energetic Electron Study (VIA-SEES) is a hybrid science mission and technology development campaign from the Earth and Planetary Exploration Technologies (EPET) program at the University of Hawai’i. It is oriented around establishing a direct correlation between Solar Radiation Events (SREs) and Variability in Atmospheric gases, specifically Nitric and Nitrous Oxide, as well as Ozone. The mission is intended to fly on a 3U CubeSat and will collect a data set which is multimodal. To achieve robust performance, a variety of techniques are employed to make the science data set easier to interpret by an analyst. It is important to consider the format of the data sets, which is generally given by the instrument collecting the data. To allow for a better establishment of an anticoincidence, meaning that there is a precise correlation between 2 readings on the same index, a systems engineering approach is taken. This is as the science mission requirements should drive the design of the mission. A comprehensive approach is taken in the design of the VIA-SEES spacecraft, to maximize the scientific value of the mission

Neoadjuvant chemoradiation compared to neoadjuvant radiation alone and surgery alone for Stage II and III soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (NCR) prior to resection of extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS) has been studied, but data are limited. We present outcomes with NCR using a variety of chemotherapy regimens compared to neoadjuvant radiation without chemotherapy (NR) and surgery alone (SA).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a retrospective chart review of 112 cases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Treatments included SA (36 patients), NCR (39 patients), and NR (37 patients). NCR did not improve the rate of margin-negative resections over SA or NR. Loco-regional relapse-free survival, distant metastases-free survival, and overall survival (OS) were not different among the treatment groups. Patients with relapsed disease (OR 11.6; p = 0.01), and tumor size greater than 5 cm (OR 9.4; p = 0.01) were more likely to have a loco-regional recurrence on logistic regression analysis. Significantly increased OS was found among NCR-treated patients with tumors greater than 5 cm compared to SA (3 year OS 69 vs. 40%; p = 0.03). Wound complication rates were higher after NCR compared to SA (50 vs. 11%; p = 0.003) but not compared to NR (p = 0.36). Wet desquamation was the most common adverse event of NCR.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>NCR and NR are acceptable strategies for patients with STS. NCR is well-tolerated, but not clearly superior to NR.</p

Observational Consequences of a Landscape

In this paper we consider the implications of the "landscape" paradigm for the large scale properties of the universe. The most direct implication of a rich landscape is that our local universe was born in a tunnelling event from a neighboring vacuum. This would imply that we live in an open FRW universe with negative spatial curvature. We argue that the "overshoot" problem, which in other settings would make it difficult to achieve slow roll inflation, actually favors such a cosmology. We consider anthropic bounds on the value of the curvature and on the parameters of inflation. When supplemented by statistical arguments these bounds suggest that the number of inflationary efolds is not very much larger than the observed lower bound. Although not statistically favored, the likelihood that the number of efolds is close to the bound set by observations is not negligible. The possible signatures of such a low number of efolds are briefly described.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures v2: references adde