Modeling risks of cardiovascular and cancer mortality following a diagnosis of loco-regional breast cancer

Background Many women with breast cancer also have a high likelihood of cardiovascular mortality, and while there are several cardiovascular risk prediction models, none have been validated in a cohort of breast cancer patients. We first compared the performance of commonly-used cardiovascular models, and then derived a new model where breast cancer and cardiovascular mortality were modeled simultaneously, to account for the competing risk endpoints and commonality of risk factors between the two events. Methods We included 20,462 women diagnosed with stage I–III breast cancer between 2000 and 2010 in Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) with follow-up through April 30, 2015, and examined the performance of the Framingham, CORE and SCOREOP cardiovascular risk models by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and observed-to -expected (O/E) ratio. We developed a multi-state model based on cause-specific hazards (CSH) to jointly model the causes of mortality. Results The extended models including breast cancer characteristics (grade, tumor size, nodal involvement) with CVD risk factors had better discrimination at 5-years with AUCs of 0.85 (95% CI 0.83, 0.86) for cardiovascular death and 0.80 (95% CI 0.78, 0.87) for breast cancer death compared with the existing cardiovascular models evaluated at 5 years AUCs ranging 0.71–0.78. Five-year calibration for breast and cardiovascular mortality from our multi-state model was also excellent (O/E = 1.01, 95% CI 0.91–1.11). Conclusion A model incorporating cardiovascular risk factors, breast cancer characteristics, and competing events, outperformed traditional models of cardiovascular disease by simultaneously estimating cancer and cardiovascular mortality risks

Predictors of activity level and retention among African American lay health advisors (LHAs) from The National Witness Project: ...

Background Lay health advisor (LHA) programs are increasingly being implemented in the USA and globally in the context of health promotion and disease prevention. LHAs are effective in addressing health disparities when used to reach medically underserved populations, with strong evidence among African American and Hispanic women. Despite their success and the evidence supporting implementation of LHA programs in community settings, there are tremendous barriers to sustaining LHA programs and little is understood about their implementation and sustainability in “real-world” settings. The purpose of this study was to (1) propose a conceptual framework to investigate factors at individual, social, and organizational levels that impact LHA activity and retention; and (2) use prospective data to investigate the individual, social, and organizational factors that predict activity level and retention among a community-based sample of African American LHAs participating in an effective, evidence-based LHA program (National Witness Project; NWP). Methods Seventy-six LHAs were recruited from eight NWP sites across the USA. Baseline predictor data was collected from LHAs during a telephone questionnaire administered between 2010 and 2011. Outcome data on LHA participation and program activity levels were collected in the fall of 2012 from NWP program directors. Chi-square and ANOVA tests were used to identify differences between retained and completely inactive LHAs, and LHAs with high/moderate vs. low/no activity levels. Multivariable logistic regression models were conducted to identify variables that predicted LHA retention and activity levels. Results In multivariable models, LHAs based at sites with academic partnerships had increased odds of retention and high/moderate activity levels, even after adjusting for baseline LHA activity level. Higher religiosity among LHAs was associated with decreased odds of being highly/moderately active. LHA role clarity and self-efficacy were associated with retention and high/moderate activity in multivariable models unadjusted for baseline LHA activity level. Conclusions Organizational and role-related factors are critical in influencing the retention and activity levels of LHAs. Developing and fostering partnerships with academic institutions will be important strategies to promote successful implementation and sustainability of LHA programs. Clarifying role expectations and building self-efficacy during LHA recruitment and training should be further explored to promote LHA retention and participation

Mortality after breast cancer as a function of time since diagnosis by estrogen receptor status and age at diagnosis

Our aim was to estimate how long-term mortality following breast cancer diagnosis depends on age at diagnosis, tumor estrogen receptor (ER) status, and the time already survived. We used the population-based Australian Breast Cancer Family Study which followed-up 1,196 women enrolled during 1992-1999 when aged 7 years, those with ER-negative disease will on average live longer, and more so if younger at diagnosis

Mortality after breast cancer as a function of time since diagnosis by estrogen receptor status and age at diagnosis

Our aim was to estimate how long-term mortality following breast cancer diagnosis depends on age at diagnosis, especially if at a young age, tumor estrogen receptor (ER) status, and the time already survived. We used the population-based Australian Breast Cancer Family Study which followed-up 1,196 women enrolled during 1992-99 when aged <60 years at diagnosis with a first primary invasive breast cancer, over-sampled for younger ages at diagnosis, for whom tumor pathology features and ER status were measured. There were 375 deaths (median follow-up=15.7; range=0.8-21.4, years). We estimated the mortality hazard as a function of time since diagnosis using a flexible parametric survival analysis with ER status a time-dependent covariate. For women with ER-negative tumors compared with those with ER-positive tumors, 5-year mortality was initially higher (P<.001), similar if they survived to 5 years (P=0.4), and lower if they survived to 10 years (P=0.02). The estimated mortality hazard for ER-negative disease peaked at ~3 years post-diagnosis, thereafter declined with time, and at 7 years post-diagnosis became lower than that for ER-positive disease. This pattern was more pronounced for women diagnosed at younger ages. Mortality was also associated with lymph node count (hazard ratio (HR)=2.52 [95% CI:2.11-3.01] per 10 nodes) and tumor grade (HR=1.62 [95% CI:1.34-1.96] per grade). The risk of death following a breast cancer diagnosis differs substantially and qualitatively with diagnosis age, ER status and time survived. For women who survive >7 years, those with ER-negative disease will on average live longer, and more so if younger at diagnosis