Assessing and enhancing EN 16883:2017

This paper describes the work undertaken within the international project IEA SHC Task 59 Renovating Historic Buildings Towards Zero Energy to produce a handbook for the planning of energy retrofits in historic buildings. The handbook is an attempt to increase use and usability of the European standard EN 16883:2017 - Conservation of cultural heritage -Guidelines for improving the energy performance of historic buildings. The standard provides a decision roadmap for how energy efficiency measures can be identified that both respect the heritage values of the building and improves the energy performance. It also provides general information about energy efficiency in historic buildings. There has been a lot of interest in this standard from researchers in the field of energy efficiency in historic buildings, but it has not been widely used in practice. The first part of the paper summarises an assessment of the use, or lack thereof, of the standard. The assessment is based on nine European case studies that identify how the European standard can be complemented with additional resources, examples and guidance. In the second part the work with a handbook complementing the standard is outlined, and recommendations to future revisions of the standard are suggested

Results of the EU project Climate for Culture : future climate-induced risks to historic buildings and their interiors

The EU funded Climate for Culture (CfC) Project is finalized to forecast the impact of climate change on either indoor or outdoor Cultural Heritage and advise on related risks. CfC has produced high-resolution thematic maps over Europe to highlight the expected changes and related risks for a number of key materials, building types, deterioration mechanisms for the near and far future based on two emission scenarios as developed by IPCC. The procedure to obtain a thematic map is as follows: to simulate outdoor climate change; to pass from outdoor to indoor climate change through building simulation and case studies measurements; to use damage functions and literature results to evaluate potential risk for buildings and objects; to map the above results for advice and stakeholders use. This methodology has produced 55,650 thematic maps of future climate induced risks to historic buildings and collections in their interiors. The results can be used for climate change impact assessments and for planning adaption and mitigation measures in view of preventive conservation or other applications, e.g. human health, energy consumption, cultural tourism. This paper presents some of the main project outcomes

A Genetic Basis of Susceptibility to Acute Pyelonephritis

For unknown reasons, urinary tract infections (UTIs) are clustered in certain individuals. Here we propose a novel, genetically determined cause of susceptibility to acute pyelonephritis, which is the most severe form of UTI. The IL-8 receptor, CXCR1, was identified as a candidate gene when mIL-8Rh mutant mice developed acute pyelonephritis (APN) with severe tissue damage.We have obtained CXCR1 sequences from two, highly selected APN prone patient groups, and detected three unique mutations and two known polymorphisms with a genotype frequency of 23% and 25% compared to 7% in controls (p<0.001 and p<0.0001, respectively). When reflux was excluded, 54% of the patients had CXCR1 sequence variants. The UTI prone children expressed less CXCR1 protein than the pediatric controls (p<0.0001) and two sequence variants were shown to impair transcription.The results identify a genetic innate immune deficiency, with a strong link to APN and renal scarring

Air temperature changes in Toruń (central Poland) from 1871 to 2010

The article presents a detailed analysis of changes in air temperature in Toruń in the period 1871–2010 on the basis of homogenised monthly, seasonal and annual air temperature series which have been newly constructed (i.e. extended by the 50 years of 1871–1920). Over the 140-year study period, a sizeable and statistically significant increase of 0.1 °C per decade was found in the air temperature in Toruń. The greatest increases occurred for spring and winter, at 0.12 and 0.11 °C, respectively. A lesser warming, meanwhile, was recorded for autumn (0.10 °C/10 years), and particularly for summer (0.07 °C/10 years). The air temperature trends are statistically significant for all seasons. Air temperature differences between the monthly averages of three analysed subperiods (1871–1900, 1901–1950 and 1951–2010) and averages for the entire period under review rarely exceeded ± 0.5 °C. In all of these periods, the highest average air temperatures occurred in July and the lowest in January. The period of 1981–2010 had the highest frequency of occurrence of very and extremely warm seasons and years. Meanwhile, the highest frequency of very and extremely cool seasons and years was recorded in the 1940s and in the nineteenth century. In the period of 1871–2010, winters shortened markedly (by 7%) and summers lengthened by 3.8%. All of the presented aspects of air temperature in Toruń, which is representative of the climate of central Poland, are in close agreement with the findings of analogous studies of the same for other areas of Poland and Central Europe

Central Bank Transparency and Nonlinear Learning Dynamics

Central bank communication plays an important role in shaping market participants' expectations. This paper studies a simple nonlinear model of monetary policy in which agents have incomplete information about the economic environment. It shows that agents' learning and the dynamics of the economy are heavily affected by central bank transparency about its policy rule. A central bank that does not communicate its rule can induce 'learning equilibria' in which the economy alternates between periods of deflation coupled with low output and periods of high economic activity with excessive inflation. More generally, initial beliefs that are arbitrarily close to the inflation target equilibrium can result in complex economic dynamics, resulting in welfare-reducing fluctuations. On the contrary, central bank communication of policy rules helps stabilize expectations around the inflation target equilibrium

The "Credit-Cost Channel" of Monetary Policy. A Theoretical Assessment

Drawing on the modern literature on the monetary transmission mechanisms with capital market imperfections, this paper presents a model of the "credit-cost channel" of monetary policy. The thrust of the model is that firms' reliance on bank loans ("credit channel") may make aggregate supply sensitive to bank interest rates ("cost channel"), which are in turn driven by the official rate controlled by the central bank. The model is assessed theoretically by examining whether, and under what conditions, changes in the policy interest rate produce the whole pattern of the observed stylized effects of monetary policy, with no recourse to non-competitive hypotheses and frictions in the goods and labour markets. This result is obtained for parameter values in the range of available consensus estimates, with a caveat concerning labour-supply elasticity to the real wage rate

Liquidity Preference Theory Revisited - To Ditch or to Build on it?

This paper revisits Keynes's liquidity preference theory as it evolved from the Treatise on Money to The General Theory and after, with a view of assessing the theory's ongoing relevance and applicability to issues of both monetary theory and policy. Contrary to the neoclassical special case interpretation, Keynes considered his liquidity preference theory of interest as a replacement for flawed saving or loanable funds theories of interest emphasizing the real forces of productivity and thrift. His point was that it is money, not saving, which is the necessary prerequisite for economic activity in monetary production economies. Accordingly, turning neoclassical wisdom on its head, it is the terms of finance as determined within the financial system that rule the roost to which the real economy must adapt itself. The key practical matter is how deliberate monetary control can be applied to attain acceptable real performance. In this regard, it is argued that Keynes's analysis offers insights into practical issues, such as policy credibility and expectations management, that reach well beyond both heterodox endogenous money approaches and modern Wicksellian orthodoxy, which remains trapped in the illusion of money neutrality