A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling

Radiomics applies machine learning algorithms to quantitative imaging data to characterise the tumour phenotype and predict clinical outcome. For the development of radiomics risk models, a variety of different algorithms is available and it is not clear which one gives optimal results. Therefore, we assessed the performance of 11 machine learning algorithms combined with 12 feature selection methods by the concordance index (C-Index), to predict loco- regional tumour control (LRC) and overall survival for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The considered algorithms are able to deal with continuous time-to-event survival data. Feature selection and model building were performed on a multicentre cohort (213 patients) and validated using an independent cohort (80 patients). We found several combinations of machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods which achieve similar results, e.g., MSR-RF: C-Index = 0.71 and BT-COX: C-Index = 0.70 in combination with Spearman feature selection. Using the best performing models, patients were stratified into groups of low and high risk of recurrence. Significant differences in LRC were obtained between both groups on the validation cohort. Based on the presented analysis, we identified a subset of algorithms which should be considered in future radiomics studies to develop stable and clinically relevant predictive models for time-to-event endpoints

Definition and validation of a radiomics signature for loco-regional tumour control in patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Purpose: To develop and validate a CT-based radiomics signature for the prognosis of loco-regional tumour control (LRC) in patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated by primary radiochemotherapy (RCTx) based on retrospective data from 6 partner sites of the German Cancer Consortium - Radiation Oncology Group (DKTK-ROG). Material and methods: Pre-treatment CT images of 318 patients with locally advanced HNSCC were col-lected. Four-hundred forty-six features were extracted from each primary tumour volume and then fil-tered through stability analysis and clustering. First, a baseline signature was developed from demographic and tumour-associated clinical parameters. This signature was then supplemented by CT imaging features. A final signature was derived using repeated 3-fold cross-validation on the discovery cohort. Performance in external validation was assessed by the concordance index (C-Index). Furthermore, calibration and patient stratification in groups with low and high risk for loco-regional recurrence were analysed. Results: For the clinical baseline signature, only the primary tumour volume was selected. The final sig-nature combined the tumour volume with two independent radiomics features. It achieved moderatel

Longitudinal and Multimodal Radiomics Models for Head and Neck Cancer Outcome Prediction

Radiomics analysis provides a promising avenue towards the enabling of personalized radiotherapy. Most frequently, prognostic radiomics models are based on features extracted from medical images that are acquired before treatment. Here, we investigate whether combining data from multiple timepoints during treatment and from multiple imaging modalities can improve the predictive ability of radiomics models. We extracted radiomics features from computed tomography (CT) images acquired before treatment as well as two and three weeks after the start of radiochemotherapy for 55 patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Additionally, we obtained features from FDG-PET images taken before treatment and three weeks after the start of therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were then built based on features of the different image modalities, treatment timepoints, and combinations thereof using two different feature selection methods in a five-fold cross-validation approach. Based on the cross-validation results, feature signatures were derived and their performance was independently validated. Discrimination regarding loco-regional control was assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and log-rank tests were performed to assess risk stratification. The best prognostic performance was obtained for timepoints during treatment for all modalities. Overall, CT was the best discriminating modality with an independent validation C-index of 0.78 for week two and weeks two and three combined. However, none of these models achieved statistically significant patient stratification. Models based on FDG-PET features from week three provided both satisfactory discrimination (C-index = 0.61 and 0.64) and statistically significant stratification (p=0.044 and p<0.001), but produced highly imbalanced risk groups. After independent validation on larger datasets, the value of (multimodal) radiomics models combining several imaging timepoints should be prospectively assessed for personalized treatment strategies

Longitudinal and Multimodal Radiomics Models for Head and Neck Cancer Outcome Prediction

Radiomics analysis provides a promising avenue towards the enabling of personalized radiotherapy. Most frequently, prognostic radiomics models are based on features extracted from medical images that are acquired before treatment. Here, we investigate whether combining data from multiple timepoints during treatment and from multiple imaging modalities can improve the predictive ability of radiomics models. We extracted radiomics features from computed tomography (CT) images acquired before treatment as well as two and three weeks after the start of radiochemotherapy for 55 patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Additionally, we obtained features from FDG-PET images taken before treatment and three weeks after the start of therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were then built based on features of the different image modalities, treatment timepoints, and combinations thereof using two different feature selection methods in a five-fold cross-validation approach. Based on the cross-validation results, feature signatures were derived and their performance was independently validated. Discrimination regarding loco-regional control was assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and log-rank tests were performed to assess risk stratification. The best prognostic performance was obtained for timepoints during treatment for all modalities. Overall, CT was the best discriminating modality with an independent validation C-index of 0.78 for week two and weeks two and three combined. However, none of these models achieved statistically significant patient stratification. Models based on FDG-PET features from week three provided both satisfactory discrimination (C-index = 0.61 and 0.64) and statistically significant stratification (p=0.044 and p0.001), but produced highly imbalanced risk groups. After independent validation on larger datasets, the value of (multimodal) radiomics models combining several imaging timepoints should be prospectively assessed for personalized treatment strategies

Comprehensive Analysis of Tumour Sub-Volumes for Radiomic Risk Modelling in Locally Advanced HNSCC

Imaging features for radiomic analyses are commonly calculated from the entire gross tumour volume (GTVentire). However, tumours are biologically complex and the consideration of different tumour regions in radiomic models may lead to an improved outcome prediction. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic value of radiomic analyses based on different tumour sub-volumes using computed tomography imaging of patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The GTVentire was cropped by different margins to define the rim and the corresponding core sub-volumes of the tumour. Subsequently, the best performing tumour rim sub-volume was extended into surrounding tissue with different margins. Radiomic risk models were developed and validated using a retrospective cohort consisting of 291 patients in one of the six Partner Sites of the German Cancer Consortium Radiation Oncology Group treated between 2005 and 2013. The validation concordance index (C-index) averaged over all applied learning algorithms and feature selection methods using the GTVentire achieved a moderate prognostic performance for loco-regional tumour control (C-index: 0.61 ± 0.04 (mean ± std)). The models based on the 5 mm tumour rim and on the 3 mm extended rim sub-volume showed higher median performances (C-index: 0.65 ± 0.02 and 0.64 ± 0.05, respectively), while models based on the corresponding tumour core volumes performed less (C-index: 0.59 ± 0.01). The difference in C-index between the 5 mm tumour rim and the corresponding core volume showed a statistical trend (p = 0.10). After additional prospective validation, the consideration of tumour sub-volumes may be a promising way to improve prognostic radiomic risk models

Data publication: Longitudinal and multimodal radiomics models for head-and-neck cancer outcome prediction

We include the input data, analysis scripts, analysis results and scripts to create the visualizations and plots used in the manuscript and supplement to our article "Longitudinal and multimodal radiomics models for head-and-neck cancer outcome prediction"

Definition and validation of a radiomics signature for loco-regional tumour control in patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Purpose: To develop and validate a CT-based radiomics signature for the prognosis of loco-regional tumour control (LRC) in patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated by primary radiochemotherapy (RCTx) based on retrospective data from 6 partner sites of the German Cancer Consortium - Radiation Oncology Group (DKTK-ROG). Material and methods: Pre-treatment CT images of 318 patients with locally advanced HNSCC were col-lected. Four-hundred forty-six features were extracted from each primary tumour volume and then fil-tered through stability analysis and clustering. First, a baseline signature was developed from demographic and tumour-associated clinical parameters. This signature was then supplemented by CT imaging features. A final signature was derived using repeated 3-fold cross-validation on the discovery cohort. Performance in external validation was assessed by the concordance index (C-Index). Furthermore, calibration and patient stratification in groups with low and high risk for loco-regional recurrence were analysed. Results: For the clinical baseline signature, only the primary tumour volume was selected. The final sig-nature combined the tumour volume with two independent radiomics features. It achieved moderatel

2D and 3D convolutional neural networks for outcome modelling of locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

For treatment individualisation of patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated with primary radiochemotherapy, we explored the capabilities of different deep learning approaches for predicting loco-regional tumour control (LRC) from treatment-planning computed tomography images. Based on multicentre cohorts for exploration (206 patients) and independent validation (85 patients), multiple deep learning strategies including training of 3D- and 2D-convolutional neural networks (CNN) from scratch, transfer learning and extraction of deep autoencoder features were assessed and compared to a clinical model. Analyses were based on Cox proportional hazards regression and model performances were assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and the model's ability to stratify patients based on predicted hazards of LRC. Among all models, an ensemble of 3D-CNNs achieved the best performance (C-index 0.31) with a significant association to LRC on the independent validation cohort. It performed better than the clinical model including the tumour volume (C-index 0.39). Significant differences in LRC were observed between patient groups at low or high risk of tumour recurrence as predicted by the model ([Formula: see text]). This 3D-CNN ensemble will be further evaluated in a currently ongoing prospective validation study once follow-up is complete

2D and 3D convolutional neural networks for outcome modelling of locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

These are the results from the analyses presented in a paper submitted to Scientific Reports. The zip file contains the trained model files and the plots that were used in the manuscript. Code for reproduction of our analyses can be obtained from https://github.com/oncoray/cnn-hnscc. There, you also find instructions on how to load our models