Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Medical Risks for Women Who Drink Alcohol

OBJECTIVE: To summarize for clinicians recent epidemiologic evidence regarding medical risks of alcohol use for women. METHODS: MEDLINE and PsychINFO, 1990 through 1996, were searched using key words “women” or “woman,” and “alcohol.” MEDLINE was also searched for other specific topics and authors from 1980 through 1996. Data were extracted and reviewed regarding levels of alcohol consumption associated with mortality, cardiovascular disease, alcohol-related liver disease, injury, osteoporosis, neurologic symptoms, psychiatric comorbidity, fetal alcohol syndrome, spontaneous abortion, infertility, menstrual symptoms, breast cancer, and gynecologic malignancies. Gender-specific data from cohort studies of general population or large clinical samples are primarily reviewed. MAIN RESULTS: Women develop many alcohol-related medical problems at lower levels of consumption than men, probably reflecting women's lower total body water, gender differences in alcohol metabolism, and effects of alcohol on postmenopausal estrogen levels. Mortality and breast cancer are increased in women who report drinking more than two drinks daily. Higher levels of alcohol consumption by women are associated with increased menstrual symptoms, hypertension, and stroke. Women who drink heavily also appear to have increased infertility and spontaneous abortion. Adverse fetal effects occur after variable amounts of alcohol consumption, making any alcohol use during pregnancy potentially harmful. CONCLUSIONS: In general, advising nonpregnant women who drink alcohol to have fewer than two drinks daily is strongly supported by the epidemiologic literature, although specific recommendations for a particular woman should depend on her medical history and risk factors