PREDICTION OF RECESSION

The purpose of our research is to examine the predictive power of inverted yield curve for the recession in the near future. The data used in this research are between Jan 1, 1959 to Nov, 2008. There are 8 recessions during this period, including current one. We conducted two sets of tests. The first set consists of spread between 10-year Treasury bond and 3-month Treasury bill and spread between 10-year Treasury bond and 3-month LIBOR; and we find the predictive power of spread between 10-year Treasury bond and 3-month Treasury bill is much stronger than the other one. The second set consists of spread between 10-year SWAP rate and 3-month LIBOR, spread between 10-year Treasury bond and 3-month Treasury bill, as well as the spread between 10-year Treasury bond and 3 month LIBOR. For the second test, we find that although there is a couple of recession involved and data is relatively limited, predictive power of spread between 10-year T-bond and 3 month still stands out and we also find the spread between 3-month LIBOR and 10-year SWAP could be a better indicator in the future by using more data. We conclude that term spread of Treasury rate is still the most powerful tool for forecasting the recession

Two distinct red giant branch populations in the globular cluster NGC 2419 as tracers of a merger event in the Milky Way

Recent spectroscopic observations of the outer halo globular cluster (GC) NGC 2419 show that it is unique among GCs, in terms of chemical abundance patterns, and some suggest that it was originated in the nucleus of a dwarf galaxy. Here we show, from the Subaru narrow-band photometry employing a calcium filter, that the red giant-branch (RGB) of this GC is split into two distinct subpopulations. Comparison with spectroscopy has confirmed that the redder RGB stars in the $hk$[=(Ca$-b)-(b-y)$] index are enhanced in [Ca/H] by $\sim$0.2 dex compared to the bluer RGB stars. Our population model further indicates that the calcium-rich second generation stars are also enhanced in helium abundance by a large amount ($\Delta$Y = 0.19). Our photometry, together with the results for other massive GCs (e.g., $\omega$ Cen, M22, and NGC 1851), suggests that the discrete distribution of RGB stars in the $hk$ index might be a universal characteristic of this growing group of peculiar GCs. The planned narrow-band calcium photometry for the Local Group dwarf galaxies would help to establish an empirical connection between these GCs and the primordial building blocks in the hierarchical merging paradigm of galaxy formation.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted for the publication in ApJ

Public Transportation Service Evaluations Utilizing Seoul Transportation Card Data

AbstractThis study evaluated transit service performance in Seoul using data collected from the Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) system in Seoul. The distance-based fare system in Seoul allows a maximum of four transfers with no additional charges to encourage transit ridership. In order to analyze the transit transfers, this study developed quantitative indicators for public transportation evaluations differentiated from those of previous studies by the fact that it utilizes data mining techniques which incorporate massive amounts of data (over 10 million transits per day) derived from the smart card system. This study not only carried out an evaluation to improve public transportation quality but provided comparative analysis of the mobility handicapped and an evaluation of public transportation users’ regional equity. This evaluative analysis of Level of Services (LOS) for various items is expected to be adopted for analyzing LOS status and generating improvement priorities and to be utilized as an objective database for public transportation policy decisions

The Presence of Two Distinct Red Giant Branches in the Globular Cluster NGC 1851

There is a growing body of evidence for the presence of multiple stellar populations in some globular clusters, including NGC 1851. For most of these peculiar globular clusters, however, the evidence for the multiple red giant-branches (RGBs) having different heavy elemental abundances as observed in Omega Centauri is hitherto lacking, although spreads in some lighter elements are reported. It is therefore not clear whether they also share the suggested dwarf galaxy origin of Omega Cen or not. Here we show from the CTIO 4m UVI photometry of the globular cluster NGC 1851 that its RGB is clearly split into two in the U - I color. The two distinct RGB populations are also clearly separated in the abundance of heavy elements as traced by Calcium, suggesting that the type II supernovae enrichment is also responsible, in addition to the pollutions of lighter elements by intermediate mass asymptotic giant branch stars or fast-rotating massive stars. The RGB split, however, is not shown in the V - I color, as indicated by previous observations. Our stellar population models show that this and the presence of bimodal horizontal-branch distribution in NGC 1851 can be naturally reproduced if the metal-rich second generation stars are also enhanced in helium.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letter

Spectrum of imaging findings of chronic granulomatous disease: a single center experience

The purpose of this pictorial essay is to present and summarize findings of various images of chronic granulomatous disease (CGD). CGD represents a heterogeneous group of disorders caused by defective generation of respiratory bursts in human phagocytes. This defect results in abnormal phagocytic functions and defective killing of bacteria by phagocytes. CGD may involve many organs and present with recurrent infections and inflammations. Radiologists should consider the possibility of CGD when a patient presents with atypical and recurrent infection. They must also consider other concurrent infections a patient may have

Induction of inflammatory cytokines and toll-like receptors in chickens infected with avian H9N2 influenza virus

H9N2 influenza virus is endemic in many Asian countries and is regarded as a candidate for the next human pandemic. Knowledge of the induction of inflammatory responses and toll-like receptors (TLRs) in chickens infected with H9N2 is limited. Here, we show that H9N2 induces pro-inflammatory cytokines such as transforming growth factor-beta 3; tumor necrosis factor-alpha; interferon-alpha, -beta, and gamma; and TLR 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 15 in trachea, lung, and intestine of infected chickens. In the lung, TLR-15 was dominantly induced. Taken together, it seems that H9N2 infections efficiently induce inflammatory cytokines and TLRs in trachea, lung and intestine of chickens