Deep Imbalanced Time-series Forecasting via Local Discrepancy Density

Time-series forecasting models often encounter abrupt changes in a given period of time which generally occur due to unexpected or unknown events. Despite their scarce occurrences in the training set, abrupt changes incur loss that significantly contributes to the total loss. Therefore, they act as noisy training samples and prevent the model from learning generalizable patterns, namely the normal states. Based on our findings, we propose a reweighting framework that down-weights the losses incurred by abrupt changes and up-weights those by normal states. For the reweighting framework, we first define a measurement termed Local Discrepancy (LD) which measures the degree of abruptness of a change in a given period of time. Since a training set is mostly composed of normal states, we then consider how frequently the temporal changes appear in the training set based on LD. Our reweighting framework is applicable to existing time-series forecasting models regardless of the architectures. Through extensive experiments on 12 time-series forecasting models over eight datasets with various in-output sequence lengths, we demonstrate that applying our reweighting framework reduces MSE by 10.1% on average and by up to 18.6% in the state-of-the-art model.Comment: Accepted at European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML/PKDD) 202

Evolution of switchable aposematism: insights from individual-based simulations

Some defended prey animals can switch on their normally hidden aposematic signals. This switching may occur in reaction to predators' approach (pre-attack signals) or attack (post-attack signals). Switchable aposematism has been relatively poorly studied, but we can expect that it might bring a variety of benefits to an aposmetic organism. First, the switching could startle the predators (deimatism). Second, it could facilitate aversive learning. Third, it could minimize exposure or energetic expense, as the signal can be switched off. These potential benefits might offset costs of developing, maintaining and utilizing the switchable traits. Here we focused on the third benefit of switchability, the cost-saving aspect, and developed an individual-based computer simulation of predators and prey. In 88,128 model runs, we observed evolution of permanent, pre-attack, or post-attack aposematic signals of varying strength. We found that, in general, the pre-attack switchable aposematism may require moderate predator learning speed, high basal detectability, and moderate to high signal cost. On the other hand, the post-attack signals may arise under slow predator learning, low basal detectability and high signal cost. When predator population turnover is fast, it may lead to evolution of post-attack aposematic signals that are not conforming to the above tendency. We also suggest that a high switching cost may exert different selection pressure on the pre-attack than the post-attack switchable strategies. To our knowledge, these are the first theoretical attempts to systematically explore the evolution of switchable aposematism relative to permanent aposematism in defended prey. Our simulation model is capable of addressing additional questions beyond the scope of this article, and we open the simulation software, program manual and source code for free public use. © 2020 Song et al.1

Rhus verniciflua Stokes against Advanced Cancer: A Perspective from the Korean Integrative Cancer Center

Active anticancer molecules have been searched from natural products; many drugs were developed from either natural products or their derivatives following the conventional pharmaceutical paradigm of drug discovery. However, the advances in the knowledge of cancer biology have led to personalized medicine using molecular-targeted agents which create new paradigm. Clinical benefit is dependent on individual biomarker and overall survival is prolonged through cytostatic rather than cytotoxic effects to cancer cell. Therefore, a different approach is needed from the single lead compound screening model based on cytotoxicity. In our experience, the Rhus verniciflua stoke (RVS) extract traditionally used for cancer treatment is beneficial to some advanced cancer patients though it is herbal extract not single compound, and low cytotoxic in vitro. The standardized RVS extract's action mechanisms as well as clinical outcomes are reviewed here. We hope that these preliminary results would stimulate different investigation in natural products from conventional chemicals

Modeling of Rf Interference Caused by Solid-State Drive Noise

In this paper, modeling of RFI problem caused by a solid-state drive (SSD) in a laptop is proposed. Two noise sources (one outside and one inside a cavity) in the SSD are reconstructed as dipole moments with magnitude-only near-field scanning data. The dipole moment inside a cavity is then replaced by a Huygens\u27 box covering four side surfaces of the cavity using a numerical simulation. The noise voltage at an RF antenna port is calculated by combining the two reconstructed noise sources with measured transfer functions. The model is successfully validated through a comparison of the calculation with measurement results

EHRSQL: A Practical Text-to-SQL Benchmark for Electronic Health Records

We present a new text-to-SQL dataset for electronic health records (EHRs). The utterances were collected from 222 hospital staff, including physicians, nurses, insurance review and health records teams, and more. To construct the QA dataset on structured EHR data, we conducted a poll at a university hospital and templatized the responses to create seed questions. Then, we manually linked them to two open-source EHR databases, MIMIC-III and eICU, and included them with various time expressions and held-out unanswerable questions in the dataset, which were all collected from the poll. Our dataset poses a unique set of challenges: the model needs to 1) generate SQL queries that reflect a wide range of needs in the hospital, including simple retrieval and complex operations such as calculating survival rate, 2) understand various time expressions to answer time-sensitive questions in healthcare, and 3) distinguish whether a given question is answerable or unanswerable based on the prediction confidence. We believe our dataset, EHRSQL, could serve as a practical benchmark to develop and assess QA models on structured EHR data and take one step further towards bridging the gap between text-to-SQL research and its real-life deployment in healthcare. EHRSQL is available at https://github.com/glee4810/EHRSQL.Comment: Published as a conference paper at NeurIPS 2022 (Track on Datasets and Benchmarks)

Association of coronary artery calcification and serum gamma-glutamyl transferase in Korean

a b s t r a c t Background and objective: Elevated serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) has been known to be associated with the cardiovascular disease. However, there is a lack of researches on direct examination of relevance between serum GGT and coronary artery calcification (CAC). Accordingly, the aim of this study was to investigate the association between serum GGT levels and the prevalence of CAC in Korean. Methods: The study population consisted of 14,439 male and female adults without coronary artery disease, who were conducted health examination from January 2010 to December 2010. The prevalence of CAC in relation to the quartile groups of serum GGT levels and odds ratio and 95% CI of CAC were analyzed using multiple logistic regression model. Results: The prevalence of CAC increased with increasing GGT quartile (4.6%, 8.7%, 11.8% and 14.7% in the lowest, second, third, highest GGT quartiles, respectively; p < 0.001). In the logistic regression analysis adjusted for multiple variables, odds ratio (95% CI) for the prevalence of CAC comparing the 1st GGT quartile to the 4th quartile were 2.43 (1.94e3.05) for all subjects, 1.49 (1.21e1.85) for men and 1.33 (0.62e2.87) for women. Conclusion: Elevated serum GGT levels were independently associated with the prevalence of CAC. Physicians and health care providers should be observant regarding future development of coronary artery disease among people with increasing concentration of serum GGT

Trails of ants converge or diverge through lens-shaped impediments, resembling principles of optics

Analogies across disciplines often indicate the existence of universal principles such as optimization, while the underlying proximate mechanisms may differ. It was reported recently that trails of ants refract at the border of substrates, on which walking speeds differ. This phenomenon is analogous to the travel-time-minimizing routes of light refracting at the borders between different media. Here, we further demonstrate that ant tracks converge or diverge across lens-shaped impediments similar to light rays through concave or convex optical lenses. The results suggest that the optical principle of travel time reduction may apply to ants. We propose a simple mathematical model that assumes nonlinear positive feedback in pheromone accumulation. It provides a possible explanation of the observed similarity between ant behavior and optics, and it is the first quantitative theoretical demonstration that pheromone-based proximate mechanisms of trail formation may produce this similarity. However, the future detailed empirical observations of ant behavior on impediment edges during the process of pheromone trail formation are needed in order to evaluate alternative explanations for this similarity. © 2020, The Author(s).1

Estimation of Genetic Parameters by Single-Trait and Multi-Trait Models for Carcass Traits in Hanwoo Cattle

Hanwoo breed is preferred in South Korea because of the high standards in marbling and the palatability of its meat. Numerous studies have been conducted and are ongoing to increase the meat production and quality in this beef population. The aim of this study was to estimate and compare genetic parameters for carcass traits using BLUPF90 software. Four models were constructed, single trait pedigree model (STPM), single-trait genomic model (STGM), multi-trait pedigree model (MTPM), and multi-trait genomic model (MTGM), using the pedigree, phenotype, and genomic information of 7991 Hanwoo cattle. Four carcass traits were evaluated: Back fat thickness (BFT), carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), and marbling score (MS). Heritability estimates of 0.40 and 0.41 for BFT, 0.33 and 0.34 for CWT, 0.36 and 0.37 for EMA, and 0.35 and 0.38 for MS were obtained for the single-trait pedigree model and the multi-trait pedigree model, respectively, in Hanwoo. Further, the genomic model showed more improved results compared to the pedigree model, with heritability of 0.39 (CWT), 0.39 (EMA), and 0.46 (MS), except for 0.39 (BFT), which may be due to random events. Utilization of genomic information in the form of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) has allowed more capturing of the variance from the traits improving the variance components

Hearing Loss and Risk of Overall, Injury-Related, and Cardiovascular Mortality: The Kangbuk Samsung Health Study

Hearing loss (HL) has been related to cardiovascular risk factors as well as prevalence of cardiovascular disease itself. We evaluated the association of HL with overall, injury-related, and cardiovascular mortality. A cohort study included 580,798 Korean adults (mean age: 39.7) who attended a screening exam between 2002 and 2016 with a follow-up of up to 17 years. HL was defined as a pure-tone average of thresholds at 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 kHz ≥25 dB (decibels) in the better ear and further categorized into mild (25–<40 dB) and moderate-to-severe (≥40 dB). Overall and cause-specific mortality was ascertained through linkage to national death records. During median follow-up of 8.4 years, 6581 overall deaths, 977 cardiovascular deaths, and 1161 injury-related deaths were identified. Compared to participants with normal hearing, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for overall mortality among participants with mild and moderate-to-severe HL were 1.13 (1.05–1.21) and 1.30 (1.16–1.46), respectively. Corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for cardiovascular mortality were 1.32 (1.10–1.58) and 1.53 (1.16–2.01), respectively, and corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for injury-related mortality were 1.03 (0.81–1.31) and 1.64 (1.13–2.36), respectively. In this large cohort, HL was positively and independently associated with overall, cardiovascular, and injury-related mortality. A significantly elevated risk of cardiovascular mortality started from mild HL

SPIDERS OF THE GENUS DRACONARIUS (ARANEAE, AMAUROBIIDAE) FROM KOREA

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