The Asymmetric Impulse of the Sunshine Effect on Stock Returns and Volatilities

This study constructs a variety of GARCH models with the consideration of the generalized error distribution to analyze the relationship between the cloud cover and stock returns in Taiwan in the whole sample period (1986 to 2007) and in the two sub-sample periods (1986 to 1996 and 1997 to 2007). The data include Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average index to proxy the impact of U.S. stock market on Taiwan’s stock market performance. The empirical finding of this study could be used to reconfirm the existence of the so-called sunshine effect. The empirical results suggest that the cloud cover has significantly negative impact on Taiwan’s stock market, especially in the low cloud cover periods. Moreover, we also examine the sunshine effect with the consideration of the first and second moments and find that when adding the two moments, the sunshine effect is not significant in the stock returns but in the stock return volatilities, which is different from outcomes in previous studies.behavior finance, stock returns, stock volatility, Sunshine effect, Threshold model

Asymmetric Inflation Hedge of Housing Return: A Non-linear Vector Error Correction Approach

Conclusions of past works on the inflation hedging ability of real estate investment are not consistent. The reason for this perplexity might be the neglect of separation between high and low state of inflation, which has a great influence on empirical results. In order to examine the inflation hedging effectiveness of real estate with Taiwanese monthly housing returns and inflation, this paper uses the inflation as the threshold variable to create the nonlinear vector correction model that divides the inflation rates into high and low regime. We find robust evidence that when inflation rates are higher than 0.83% threshold value, housing returns are able to hedge against inflation, and, otherwise, they are unable. Using new methodology to discover new implications is main contribution of this study.Housing prices; Inflation; Nonlinear VECM; Taiwan

A measure of marketing price transmission in the rice market of Taiwan

The goal of this paper is to test whether changes in the marketing margin betweenthe farm and the retail prices can result in an asymmetric relationship between the farm and the retail prices in the rice market of Taiwan. By separating the transaction cost variation into two regimes, this paper utilizes a two-regime TVECM with the error correction term serving as the threshold variable to create a non-linear threshold model. The empirical results show that when the marketing margin is lower than the threshold value, the market system operates freely and there is feedback between the farm and retail prices. However, when the marketing margin is higher than the threshold value, the government intervenes in the market and the causality between the farm and retail prices no longer exists. The conclusions are as follows. Changes in the marketing margin can cause the asymmetric price transmission between the farm and retail prices in Taiwan’s rice markets; therefore, ignoring the effect of the marketing margin could lead to errors in the models. When the marketing margin is higher than the threshold value, the government intervenes in the market and the causality between the two prices is broken

Mjerenje prijenosa marketinške marže na Tajvanskom tržištu riže

The goal of this paper is to test whether changes in the marketing margin between the farm and the retail prices can result in an asymmetric relationship between the farm and the retail prices in the rice market of Taiwan. By separating the transaction cost variation into two regimes, this paper utilizes a two-regime TVECM with the error correction term serving as the threshold variable to create a non-linear threshold model. The empirical results show that when the marketing margin is lower than the threshold value, the market system operates freely and there is feedback between the farm and retail prices. However, when the marketing margin is higher than the threshold value, the government intervenes in the market and the causality between the farm and retail prices no longer exists. The conclusions are as follows. Changes in the marketing margin can cause the asymmetric price transmission between the farm and retail prices in Taiwan’s rice markets; therefore, ignoring the effect of the marketing margin could lead to errors in the models. When the marketing margin is higher than the threshold value, the government intervenes in the market and the causality between the two prices is broken.Cilj ovog rada je provjeriti da li promjene u marketinškoj marži između cijene na farmi i maloprodajne cijene mogu uzrokovati asimetrični odnos između navedenih cijena na tržištu riže u Tajvanu. Razdvajanjem varijacija transakcijskog troška u dva režima, ovaj rad koristi dvorežimski TVECM s parametrom korekcije greške kao prag varijablom za stvaranje nelinearnog modela praga. Empirijski rezultati pokazuju da, kad je marketinška marža niža od vrijednosti praga, tržišni sustav funkcionira slobodno i postoji povratna veza između cijene na farmi i maloprodajne cijene. Međutim, kada je marketinška marža veća od praga vrijednosti, država intervenira na tržištu i uzročna povezanost dviju cijena više ne postoji. Zaključci su kako slijedi. Promjene u marketinškoj marži mogu uzrokovati asimetrični prijenos cijene između cijene na farmi i cijene na malo na tajvanskom tržištu riže; dakle, ignoriranje učinka marketinške marže može dovesti do greške u modelima. Kada je marketinška marža veća od praga vrijednosti, država intervenira na tržištu i prekida se uzročna veza između navedenih dviju cijena

Could the Stock Return be a Leading Indicator of the Economic Growth in the Depression? Analysis Based on Nonlinear Dynamic Panel Model

This chapter examines whether the stock return can be a leading indicator of economic growth in the depression. A nonlinear dynamic panel data model is constructed with the use of the new current depth of recession (NCDR) indicator as the regime switched factor. Our findings show that in the recession period, the stock return can significantly explain the economic growth. As to the impact of a country’s development level and business cycle stages, the stock return can serve as a leading indicator of the economic growth in the Asian emerging markets in the recovery subperiod

Unifying and Merging Well-trained Deep Neural Networks for Inference Stage

We propose a novel method to merge convolutional neural-nets for the inference stage. Given two well-trained networks that may have different architectures that handle different tasks, our method aligns the layers of the original networks and merges them into a unified model by sharing the representative codes of weights. The shared weights are further re-trained to fine-tune the performance of the merged model. The proposed method effectively produces a compact model that may run original tasks simultaneously on resource-limited devices. As it preserves the general architectures and leverages the co-used weights of well-trained networks, a substantial training overhead can be reduced to shorten the system development time. Experimental results demonstrate a satisfactory performance and validate the effectiveness of the method.Comment: To appear in the 27th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the 23rd European Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2018. (IJCAI-ECAI 2018