Temporal-spatial analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome among hospital inpatients

Background. We report the temporal-spatial spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) among inpatients in a hospital ward during a major nosocomial outbreak and discuss possible mechanisms for the outbreak. Methods. All inpatients who had stayed in the same ward as the initial index case patient for any duration before isolation were recruited into a cohort and followed up to document the occurrence of SARS. The normalized concentration of virus-laden aerosols at different locations of the ward was estimated by use of computational fluid dynamics modeling. The attack rates in the various subgroups stratified by bed location were calculated. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to document important risk factors. Results. The overall attack rate of SARS was 41% (30 of 74 subjects). It was 65%, 52%, and 18% in the same bay, adjacent bay, and distant bays, respectively (P = .001). Computation fluid dynamics modeling indicated that the normalized concentration of virus-laden aerosols was highest in the same bay and lowest in the distant bays. Cox regression indicated that staying in the ward on 6 or 10 March entailed higher risk, as well as staying in the same or adjacent bays. The epidemic curve showed 2 peaks, and stratified analyses by bed location suggested >1 generation of spread. Conclusions. The temporal-spatial spread of SARS in the ward was consistent with airborne transmission, as modeled by use of computational fluid dynamics. Infected health care workers likely acted as secondary sources in the latter phase of the outbreak. © 2005 by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.published_or_final_versio

Statistical consideration when adding new arms to ongoing clinical trials: the potentials and the caveats

BACKGROUND: Platform trials improve the efficiency of the drug development process through flexible features such as adding and dropping arms as evidence emerges. The benefits and practical challenges of implementing novel trial designs have been discussed widely in the literature, yet less consideration has been given to the statistical implications of adding arms. MAIN: We explain different statistical considerations that arise from allowing new research interventions to be added in for ongoing studies. We present recent methodology development on addressing these issues and illustrate design and analysis approaches that might be enhanced to provide robust inference from platform trials. We also discuss the implication of changing the control arm, how patient eligibility for different arms may complicate the trial design and analysis, and how operational bias may arise when revealing some results of the trials. Lastly, we comment on the appropriateness and the application of platform trials in phase II and phase III settings, as well as publicly versus industry-funded trials. CONCLUSION: Platform trials provide great opportunities for improving the efficiency of evaluating interventions. Although several statistical issues are present, there are a range of methods available that allow robust and efficient design and analysis of these trials

The transcript expression levels of HNRNPM, HNRNPA0 and AKAP17A splicing factors may be predictively associated with ageing phenotypes in human peripheral blood

Dysregulation of splicing factor expression is emerging as a driver of human ageing; levels of transcripts encoding splicing regulators have previously been implicated in ageing and cellular senescence both in vitro and in vivo. We measured the expression levels of an a priori panel of 20 age- or senescence-associated splicing factors by qRT-PCR in peripheral blood samples from the InCHIANTI Study of Aging, and assessed longitudinal relationships with human ageing phenotypes (cognitive decline and physical ability) using multivariate linear regression. AKAP17A, HNRNPA0 and HNRNPM transcript levels were all predictively associated with severe decline in MMSE score (p = 0.007, 0.001 and 0.008 respectively). Further analyses also found expression of these genes was associated with a performance decline in two other cognitive measures; the Trail Making Test and the Purdue Pegboard Test. AKAP17A was nominally associated with a decline in mean hand-grip strength (p = 0.023), and further analyses found nominal associations with two other physical ability measures; the Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly-Short Physical Performance Battery and calculated speed (m/s) during a timed 400 m fast walking test. These data add weight to the hypothesis that splicing dyregulation may contribute to the development of some ageing phenotypes in the human population.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.This work was funded by the Velux Stiftung Foundation (Grant Number 822) and supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National institute on Aging.published version, accepted version (12 month embargo

Widened pulse pressure is a potential risk factor for significant cognitive impairment among community-dwelling Chinese younger old people

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Improved outcome of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia treated by delayed intensification in Hong Kong children: HKALL 97 study

Objective. To study the outcome of children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia who were treated using a protocol including one or two delayed intensifications. Design. Prospective single-arm multicentre study. Setting. Five designated children cancer units of the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong. Patients. Children aged between 1 and 17.9 years with newly diagnosed acute lymphoblastic leukaemia seen from November 1997 to December 2002. Intervention. Chemotherapy was modified from a German Berlin-Frankfurt-Muenster 95 (BFM95) protocol that included a delayed intensification similar to the induction phase repeated 5 months after diagnosis. High-risk patients were given double delayed intensification. Main outcome measures. Overall survival and event-free survival of the whole group and the three risk groups (standard-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups), and comparison with historical controls. Results. A total of 171 patients were recruited with a median age at diagnosis of 5.57 years (range, 1.15-17.85 years). The induction remission rate was 95.3% and non-leukaemia mortality during remission was 2.3%. At 4 years, the relapse rate of this (HKALL97) study was significantly lower than that of the HKALL93 study (15.7 vs 37.3%; P<0.001). The 4-year overall survival of HKALL97 and HKALL93 studies were 86.5% and 81.8%, respectively (P=0.51). The 4-year event-free survival for HKALL 97 and HKALL93 studies were 79% and 65%, respectively (P=0.007). Nonetheless the difference of event-free survival was most remarkable in the intermediate-risk group: 75.6% and 53.1% for HKALL97 and HKALL93 studies, respectively (P=0.06). Conclusion. A more intensive delayed consolidation phase improved the outcome for children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia by reducing relapses at 4 years. The early treatment complications were manageable and non-leukaemia mortality during remission remained low.published_or_final_versio