TESTING FOR DISEQUILIBRIUM IN THE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL INPUTS

A dynamic system of cost-share equations for agricultural inputs is used to test for the presence of input disequilibrium. This dynamic system incorporates a disequilibrium adjustment process into input-share equations derived from a translog cost function. The disequilibrium process is represented as a generalized partial adjustment model where disequilibrium in one input may affect other inputs. Results from this analysis suggest applications of translog share systems to agriculture under static equilibrium assumptions are inappropriate.Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Cross-validation and Peeling Strategies for Survival Bump Hunting using Recursive Peeling Methods

We introduce a framework to build a survival/risk bump hunting model with a censored time-to-event response. Our Survival Bump Hunting (SBH) method is based on a recursive peeling procedure that uses a specific survival peeling criterion derived from non/semi-parametric statistics such as the hazards-ratio, the log-rank test or the Nelson-Aalen estimator. To optimize the tuning parameter of the model and validate it, we introduce an objective function based on survival or prediction-error statistics, such as the log-rank test and the concordance error rate. We also describe two alternative cross-validation techniques adapted to the joint task of decision-rule making by recursive peeling and survival estimation. Numerical analyses show the importance of replicated cross-validation and the differences between criteria and techniques in both low and high-dimensional settings. Although several non-parametric survival models exist, none addresses the problem of directly identifying local extrema. We show how SBH efficiently estimates extreme survival/risk subgroups unlike other models. This provides an insight into the behavior of commonly used models and suggests alternatives to be adopted in practice. Finally, our SBH framework was applied to a clinical dataset. In it, we identified subsets of patients characterized by clinical and demographic covariates with a distinct extreme survival outcome, for which tailored medical interventions could be made. An R package `PRIMsrc` is available on CRAN and GitHub.Comment: Keywords: Exploratory Survival/Risk Analysis, Survival/Risk Estimation & Prediction, Non-Parametric Method, Cross-Validation, Bump Hunting, Rule-Induction Metho

Pivoting Motocross Foot Pegs

The ability to keep a dirt bike rider’s feet in full contact with the foot pegs at all times is something all riders’ face when riding their bike. The foot pegs that come factory and aftermarket today are universally static and non-rotational which prevent the ability for maximum contact to be maintained. During various riding positions, a rider’s foot can partially become disconnected from the peg allowing for a loss of potential control and balance/stability. The solution devised was a set of pegs that have the ability to rotate with the rider’s foot. The rotational ability of the pegs allow for the rider’s feet to stay in full contact throughout various riding positions or conditions. The pivoting peg allows for full contact with the pegs provides more stability and control over the bike which improves capabilities of balance and speed/momentum. To accomplish the pivoting, a round shaft with limiting stops was created to rotate fifteen degrees forward and backwards on the bike. Based on the design concept that was created and calculations that were done on the design, such as deflection and load bearing calculations, these pegs will easily any issues support the weight of a 185 pound rider, while still having the capability to rotate without binding. More testing of these pegs is scheduled for spring quarter 2015. From the calculations that were prepared, the pegs will pivot fifteen degrees and support the minimum weight requirement of 185 pounds.https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/cwu_met/1016/thumbnail.jp

The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline

This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices, with the exception those in the natural gas markets at the 3-month horizon. Futures do not appear to well predict subsequent movements in energy commodity prices, although they slightly outperform time series models.

The Changing Food Assistance Landscape: The Food Stamp Program in a Post-Welfare Reform Environment

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) dramatically transformed and continues to transform the food assistance landscape in the United States. The Act cut more funds from the Food Stamp Program than it did from any other program, through reductions in benefits per person and restrictions in eligibility. Despite these cuts, food stamps now have a more prominent role in the post-welfare reform social safety net because the largest cash-assistance entitlement program, Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), was replaced with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program, a nonentitlement program. This leaves the Food Stamp Program as one of the only remaining entitlement programs available to almost all low-income households.food stamps, transfer payments, food consumption, nutrition, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty,

Pattern Recognition through Computational Stylistics: Old English and Beyond

Professors Drout, Kahn, and LeBlanc have prepared a Level II proposal to prototype a suite of computational tools and statistical analyses to explore the Old English corpus. This work will serve as a proof of concept for the larger deployment of corpus-independent tools. Anticipated outcomes include scalable, open-source software to facilitate the computation and organization of word frequencies and other patterns and empirical measures of success when using various statistical analyses on the condensed data. An additional and essential outcome from our perspective is how this research leads to and impacts the development of interdisciplinary course materials for our connected (interdisciplinary) undergraduate courses in English, Statistics, and Computer Science in order that computational analyses become a more inviting option for faculty and advanced research students in the Humanities

Meet Everyone with Art at Location and Time; M.E.A.L.T. Phase 1

As an artist who participates in socially engaged arts, it is paramount in my practice to cultivate the balanced power relationship between the audience and artist by providing an ongoing safe environment, accessible subject matter and venue location, and a mechanism that not only calls for participation from the audience but empowers them through direct action. Meet Everyone with Art at Location and Time or M. E. A. L. T. Phase 1 is a mobilizable art exhibition with the long-term goal to meet the audience where they are and to offer an alternative to traditional person-to-person interaction and socializing. M. E. A. L. T. represent both food and the classical sculptural material choice of cast bronze. Cast bronze is historically reserved for monuments, memorials of dignitaries, and event markers of cultural significance. I choose to transform common food items into cast bronze sculptures because I believe they are icons. They are the icons of the morning rituals, must have on hand condiments, cheat day pleasures, grocery essentials, late night snacks, and ready to order family meals that are culturally representative of the American (and sometimes global) experience. They bind one another together because of how ubiquitous, accessible, relatable, and comforting they are to our daily routine. During each showcase, guests are welcome to sign the M. E. A. L. T. guestbook to share their writings. The guest book presents an opportunity to discover commonalities and differences, to experience a multitude of perspectives, and participate in a community through a visual and tactile medium. This thesis is the backstory of how individuals contributed towards this communal artistic endeavor and the ever-evolving criteria of a socially engaged artist who calls for person to person interaction during a viral epidemic. I was a foundry specific artist who eventually realized that his practice was a community driven and not object-based practice

FARM MACHINERY INVESTMENT AND THE TAX REFORM ACT OF 1986

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 significantly changed incentives for investing. This analysis specifically examines how changes in marginal tax rates, depreciation schedules, and the investment tax credit altered the cost of capital and net investment in agriculture. A stochastic coefficients econometric methodology is used to estimate an investment function which is then used to simulate the effects of tax reform. Estimates indicated that relative to prior law, the Tax Reform Act will reduce the capital stock of farm machinery and equipment by nearly $4 billion.Agricultural Finance, Farm Management,