The emergence of magnetic flux through a partially ionised solar atmosphere

We present results from 2.5D numerical simulations of the emergence of magnetic flux from the upper convection zone through the photosphere and chromosphere into the corona. Certain regions of the solar atmosphere are at sufficiently low temperatures to be only partially ionised, in particular the lower chromosphere. This leads to Cowling resistivities orders of magnitude larger than the Coulomb values, and thus to anisotropic dissipation in Ohm’s law. This also leads to localised low magnetic Reynolds numbers (R m < 1). We find that the rates of emergence of magnetic field are greatly increased by the partially ionised regions of the model atmosphere, and the resultant magnetic field is more diffuse. More importantly, the only currents associated with the magnetic field to emerge into the corona are aligned with the field, and thus the newly formed coronal field is force-free

Testing predictors of eruptivity using parametric flux emergence simulations

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the most energetic events in the solar system, impacting the near-Earth environment. Flare productivity is empirically known to be correlated with the size and complexity of active regions. Several indicators, based on magnetic-field data from active regions, have been tested for flare forecasting in recent years. None of these indicators, or combinations thereof, have yet demonstrated an unambiguous eruption or flare criterion. Furthermore, numerical simulations have been only barely used to test the predictability of these parameters. In this context, we used the 3D parametric MHD numerical simulations of the self-consistent formation of the flux emergence of a twisted flux tube, inducing the formation of stable and unstable magnetic flux ropes of Leake (2013, 2014). We use these numerical simulations to investigate the eruptive signatures observable in various magnetic scalar parameters and provide highlights on data analysis processing. Time series of 2D photospheric-like magnetograms are used from parametric simulations of stable and unstable flux emergence, to compute a list of about 100 different indicators. This list includes parameters previously used for operational forecasting, physical parameters used for the first time, as well as new quantities specifically developed for this purpose. Our results indicate that only parameters measuring the total non-potentiality of active regions associated with magnetic inversion line properties, such as the Falconer parameters $L_{ss}$, $WL_{ss}$, $L_{sg}$ and $WL_{sg}$, as well as the new current integral $WL_{sc}$ and length $L_{sc}$ parameters, present a significant ability to distinguish the eruptive cases of the model from the non-eruptive cases, possibly indicating that they are promising flare and eruption predictors.Comment: 46 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in Space Weather and Space Climate on June, 8t

Group behaviour in financial markets

This thesis aims to revise the current understanding of the behaviour of different groups of traders in financial markets. Research involves statistical analysis of historic 'Commitment of Traders' reports, a U.S government dataset providing the long and short positions of core groups of traders, reported at weekly intervals over 17 years. Empirical work identifies a surprising level of consistency amongst different groups across 31 markets. A specific pattern is identified: speculators are found to increase their buying interest when prices are rising whilst commercial traders (or 'hedgers') increase their selling; the opposite pattern of behaviour occurs when prices are falling. The thesis explores the implications of this behaviour for existing models of financial markets by referencing a number of peer-reviewed studies. The agent-based computational model of Alfarano, Lux, and Wagner (2005) is implemented and analysed. A lack of validity is demonstrated in the interactions between the different types of traders in this model. These theoretical components are further shown to be typical of much of the literature in this area. An objective for the thesis is to correct this oversight by incorporating genuine patterns of trading behaviour into an existing computational model. The approach of Mike and Farmer (2008) is used for this purpose, being currently unique in that core components are calibrated from real-world data and no group-level representations are assumed. This model is extended to observe groups of traders with different levels of order-aggression: speculators are found to rely on market orders whereas commercial traders rely on limit orders. These preferences, in the absence of deeper theoretical considerations, are sufficient to account for the identified behaviour. A discussion is offered on the relevance of this finding for financial market regulators, who have typically focused on regulating types of traders, specifically speculators, rather than on types of trades

Multi-fluid simulations of chromospheric magnetic reconnection in a weakly ionized reacting plasma

We present results from the first self-consistent multi-fluid simulations of chromospheric magnetic reconnection in a weakly ionized reacting plasma. We simulate two dimensional magnetic reconnection in a Harris current sheet with a numerical model which includes ion-neutral scattering collisions, ionization, recombination, optically thin radiative loss, collisional heating, and thermal conduction. In the resulting tearing mode reconnection the neutral and ion fluids become decoupled upstream from the reconnection site, creating an excess of ions in the reconnection region and therefore an ionization imbalance. Ion recombination in the reconnection region, combined with Alfv\'{e}nic outflows, quickly removes ions from the reconnection site, leading to a fast reconnection rate independent of Lundquist number. In addition to allowing fast reconnection, we find that these non-equilibria partial ionization effects lead to the onset of the nonlinear secondary tearing instability at lower values of the Lundquist number than has been found in fully ionized plasmas.These simulations provide evidence that magnetic reconnection in the chromosphere could be responsible for jet-like transient phenomena such as spicules and chromospheric jets.Comment: 8 Figures, 32 pages tota