Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Using an OLG Model

This paper presents an economy and climate model of 60 overlapping generations of finite lived agents and competitive firms interacting with a physical environment. Use of energy in production results in the release of carbon to the atmosphere which can affect global climate, and thus productivity. The model is calibrated to global economic activity over the 30 years ended in 1995. The model is solved using an Euler equation approach, and simulated for three climate change scenarios, capturing optimistic, median, and pessimistic predictions on the rate and severity of climate change in response to CO2 emissions.Climate Change, Environmental Taxes, Environmental Regulation.

The Climate Change Learning Curve

The key element in the tension between those who believe climate change is an issue and those who do not is essentially the question of whether we are merely in a long period of shock-induced above average temperatures or if we have led to this increase in temperatures by anthropogenic carbon emissions. The model proposed in this paper allows for a model in which we weigh observations on temperature against the potential that these are generated by a combination of uncertain parameters; namely the coefficient of autoregression and the sensitivity of temperature change to atmospheric carbon levels. This paper shows that, contrary to predictions in the literature that we can resolve uncertainty very quickly, the time to learn may be on the order of thousands of years when uncertainty surrounds two parameters in the law of motion for temperature. When the learning model is embedded in an optimal policy growth model, policy decisions are found to be affected by the prior mean but not the variance. A new solution algorithm which relies on randomization and least squares approximation is applied to solve the value function in the model.Climate Change; Bayesian Learning; Environmental Regulation; Growth; Pollution; Dynamic Programming; Precautionary Principle.

The impulsive phase of solar flares. 2: Characteristics of the hard X-rays

The results of an investigation into the electron distribution in the general non-thermal models of solar flares were used to calculate the characteristics of the impulsive hard X-rays. The height distribution, the spectrum, the polarization, and directivity of the X-rays were observed and how these X-ray characteristics are affected by the parameters defining the model was investigated. An expression is obtained for the X-ray intensity as a function of source height which is an excellent fit under certain constraints. Some available data with spatial resolution are examined and it is shown that it is possible to reproduce these data adequately with the non-thermal model and to determine the values of the parameters describing the flares

Correlation of hard X-ray and type 3 bursts in solar flares

Correlations between X-ray and type 3 radio emission of solar bursts are described through a bivariate distribution function. Procedures for determining the form of this distribution are described. A model is constructed to explain the correlation between the X-ray spectral index and the ratio of X-ray to radio intensities. Implications of the model are discussed

A polyphonic acoustic vortex and its complementary chords

Using an annular phased array of eight loudspeakers, we generate sound beams that simultaneously contain phase singularities at a number of different frequencies. These frequencies correspond to different musical notes and the singularities can be set to overlap along the beam axis, creating a polyphonic acoustic vortex. Perturbing the drive amplitudes of the speakers means that the singularities no longer overlap, each note being nulled at a slightly different lateral position, where the volume of the other notes is now nonzero. The remaining notes form a tri-note chord. We contrast this acoustic phenomenon to the optical case where the perturbation of a white light vortex leads to a spectral spatial distribution

Vortex knots in light

Optical vortices generically arise when optical beams are combined. Recently, we reported how several laser beams containing optical vortices could be combined to form optical vortex loops, links and knots embedded in a light beam (Leach et al 2004 Nature 432 165). Here, we describe in detail the experiments in which vortex loops form these structures. The experimental construction follows a theoretical model originally proposed by Berry and Dennis, and the beams are synthesized using a programmable spatial light modulator and imaged using a CCD camera

Posttranslational modifications of proteins in the pathobiology of medically relevant fungi

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Material Flow Analysis: Outcome Focus (MFA:OF) for Elucidating the Role of Infrastructure in the Development of a Liveable City

Engineered infrastructures (i.e., utilities, transport & digital) underpin modern society. Delivering services via these is especially challenging in cities where differing infrastructures form a web of interdependencies. There must be a step change in how infrastructures deliver services to cities, if those cities are to be liveable in the future (i.e., provide for citizen wellbeing, produce less CO2 & ensure the security of the resources they use). Material Flow Analysis (MFA) is a useful methodology for understanding how infrastructures transfer resources to, within and from cities and contribute to the city’s metabolism. Liveable Cities, a five-year research programme was established to identify & test radical engineering interventions leading to liveable cities of the future. In this paper, the authors propose an outcome-focussed variation on the MFA methodology (MFA: OF), evidenced through work on the resource flows of Birmingham, UK. These flows include water, energy, food & carbon-intensive materials (e.g., steel, paper, glass), as well as their associated waste. The contribution MFA: OF makes to elucidating the interactions & interdependencies between the flows is highlighted and suggestions are made for how it can contribute to the (radical) rethinking of the engineered infrastructure associated with such flow