Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies

This paper develops a variant of the IMF's Global Economic Model (GEM) suitable to analyze macroeconomic dynamics in open economies, and uses it to assess the effectiveness of Taylor rules and Inflation-Forecast-Based (IFB) rules in stabilizing variability in output and inflation. Our findings suggest that a simple IFB rule that does not rely upon any direct estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate and places a relatively high weight on the inflation forecast may perform better in small open economies than conventional Taylor rules.

Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets

While there have been numerous studies of inflation targeting in industrial countries, there has been much less analysis of the effects of inflation targeting in emerging market countries. Based on a new and detailed survey of 31 central banks, this paper shows that inflation targeting in emerging-market countries brings significant benefits to the countries that adopt it relative to other strategies, such as money or exchange rate targeting. Indeed, by comparing the performance of the inflation-targeting countries with a sample of countries that pursue other regimes we show that there are significant improvements in anchoring both inflation and inflation expectations with no adverse effects on output. In addition, under inflation targeting interest rates, exchange rates, and international reserves are less volatile, and the risk of currency crises relative to money or exchange rate targets is smaller. Interestingly, IT seems to outperform exchange rate pegs—even when only successful pegs are chosen in comparison. The survey evidence indicates that it is unnecessary for countries to meet a stringent set of institutional, technical, and economic “preconditions” for the successful adoption of inflation targeting.

Application specifications for generating output from the DGSM

As part of the development of the DGSM Framework two application specifications were drawn up. The first of these was produced by the Data Architecture sub-project and was a specification for an application to allow users to select data from the GSF database, based on spatial, metadata and attribute criteria. The selected data could then be used to generate various user-selected model visualisations and attribute displays on the user’s desk-top. It was a key requirement that it should be possible to run the application over the internet using a standard browser with no plug-ins or add-ons that are not freely downloadable. The application was designed to provide general purpose access to the GSF database to a wide range of potential users outside of BGS. It was not aimed at any particular group of end-users and was seen as the DGSM analogy of the traditional geological map. This application was designed to test all the main elements necessary in building GSF output applications as well as providing a useful deliverable in its own right. In the future the methods developed will be used to build GSF output applications to address the requirements of more specific groups of users. The second application specification was produced by the Metadata sub-project and was designed to show how the DGSM metadata could be used. The DGSM metadata is divided into three distinct types, each designed to answer a specific type of question posed by a particular group of users: 1. Data Discovery metadata is designed to tell modellers what suitable data exist for creating a particular model. 2. Model Discovery metadata is designed to tell model users what suitable models exist for a particular application. 3. Inference metadata is designed to tell model developers and advanced users how a model was developed. The application specification was designed to define an application, for internal BGS use, that would use the metadata to answer the questions they were intended to address. Although the two applications are aimed at different users and have different functionalities, there are nevertheless some similarities between them. In particular the selection modules and the GSF model display component are similar. This suggests that in the future, as the difference between what it is technically possible to provide to internal and external users reduces, it may be desirable to merge the functionality described in the two application specifications in this report. For this reason it was thought sensible to bring the two specifications together in this internal report

The utility of measures of fatness and skeletal size in explaining weight and size differences in yearling Angus and Hereford bulls

Records from 669 yearling Angus and 871 yearling Hereford bulls from three central test stations and seven Land Grant University or USDA research herds were utilized in a study which was designed to determine needed refinements in procedures for performance testing young bulls. Generalized least-squares multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine the value of measures of fatness and measures of skeletal size in defining or explaining weight and size differences over and above the effects of age and age of dam, which are in common usage. Principal-component analysis also was employed in an effort to assess its useful-ness in evaluating bulls as to size and body shape. The study indicated that weight alone is not a sufficient measure of size and that selection for conventional adjusted yearling weight alone would tend to favor fatter animals and would produce animals of several different skeletal sizes and body shapes. A positive but variable association between fatness measures and final weight was found. Ultrasonically measured fat thickness was found to be more accurate as a measure of fatness per se than was subjective condition score, though both were of similar utility in explaining final weight differences. Condition scores tended to measure fatness on a relative basis and were apparently confounded with size and general body type. Wither height and body length were quite valuable as skeletal-size measures and explained large portions of variance in final weight. Either of these or subjective frame-size scores were valuable in explaining differences in body type and apparent differences in maturity rates. These skeletal-size measures tended to reduce the value of age in explain-ing weight differences. Shoulder width was highly related to weight differences but was influenced greatly by degree of fatness. Although there are apparently basic relationships among weight, skeletal size and fatness, existent individual-animal variations suggest that the accurate measurement of all three of these is essential in classifying bulls accurately as to potential breeding value. Weight and fatness vary on an individual-animal basis depending on maturity rate. Therefore it seems inappropriate to attempt to develop regression procedures based on group statistics for the adjustment of weight to a fat-constant basis. The first principal component was found to be useful in ranking bulls on general size. The second component indicates that two basic extremes in body shape apparently exist among all cattle and is useful in ranking animals between these extremes. It appears that performance testing programs should include mea-sures of fatness and skeletal size in addition to weight and age if potential sires are to be accurately evaluated. This study strongly suggests that post-weaning performance tests for estimation of breeding value should be terminated at a constant physiological age rather than at a constant chronological age. Fatness and skeletal-size measures appear useful in determination of physiological age

Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity? A Scenario Analysis

In the evolving debate and analysis of global imbalances, a commonly overlooked issue pertains to rising protectionism. This paper attempts to fill that gap, examining the macroeconomic implications of trade policy changes through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy encompassing four regional blocs. Simulation exercises are carried out to consider the imposition of uniform and discriminatory tariffs on trading partners as well as the case of tariff retaliation. We also discuss a scenario in which a 'globalization backlash' lowers the degree of competition in import-competing sectors, and compare the implications of higher markups in the product and labor markets.

Analysis and Simulation of a New Code Tracking Loop for GPS Multipath Mitigation

This thesis proposes a new direct sequence spread spectrum (DS/SS) code phase tracking loop which mitigates the effects of multipath interference on code phase tracking error; such errors can translate to significant range measurement errors in DS/SS ranging systems such as Global Positioning System (GPS). The new code tracking loop, called the modified RAKE delay lock loop (MRDLL), uses maximum likelihood (ML) signal parameter estimation to determine the amplitude, carrier phase, and relative propagation delay of both a direct path and a reflected signal; a multiple correlator code phase tracking loop then exploits these ML signal estimates to remove the tracking error introduced by the reflection. A preliminary analysis showed that the MRDLL\u27s linear tracking region varied with the reflected signal parameters; therefore, an adaptive loop controller (ALC) was introduced to allow the loop designer to fix dynamic specifications such as loop natural frequency. Analysis and computer simulations demonstrated that, when multipath was present, the MRDLL exhibited a significantly lower steady-state code phase tracking error than that of the standard noncoherent delay lock loop (NCDLL), which is typically used in GPS receivers. In an ideal multipath-free environment, the NCDLL is still the best choice for code phase tracking. This GPS receiver design technology will benefit the entire aviation community by eliminating or reducing the dominant source of error in differential GPS-based instrument landing systems, resulting in improved ILS safety, reliability, and integrity. In relative GPS applications, such as precision guided munitions, lethality is improved via elimination of multipath contribution to targeting error. In all GPS applications, the (no longer dominant) error contribution of multipath can be eliminated, yielding enhanced positioning accuracy

Alcohol use, alcohol-related aggression and intimate partner abuse: a cross-sectional survey of convicted versus general population men in Scotland

Introduction and Aims. Scotland has a particular problem with alcohol, and the links between intimate partner abuse (IPA) and alcohol appear stronger here than elsewhere across Europe. This study explored differences in alcohol use, related aggression and relationship conflict across a number of groups: men convicted for intimate partner abuse, men convicted of general offences and men recruited from community sports teams. Design and Methods. Participants (n = 64) completed three questionnaires exploring their experiences of alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, AUDIT); alcohol and aggression (Alcohol Related Aggression Questionnaire, ARAQ-28), and relationship conflict (Revised Conflict Tactics Scale, CTS-2). Results. There were significant differences across the groups in terms of AUDIT and ARAQ-28 scores, IPA and general offenders scored higher than the community sample. CTS-2 scores showed significant differences: both offender groups reported more use of negotiation and psychological abuse, than the community men, and IPA offenders reported causing more physical harm than either general offenders or the community sample. ARAQ-28 scores correlated with psychological abuse for general offenders. Alcohol use was very high across all groups, but the community group did not endorse an aggression-precipitating view of alcohol and did not report high IPA. Discussion and Conclusions. Discussed is the need for cross-cultural research to explore putative mediators and moderators in the relationship between alcohol, aggressiveness and IPA. [Gilchrist EA, Ireland L, Forsyth A, Godwin J, Laxton T. Alcohol use, alcohol-related aggression and intimate partner abuse: A cross-sectional survey of convicted versus general population men in Scotland. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:20-23