Effect of Coriaria arborea on seed banks during primary succession on Mt Tarawera, New Zealand

An experiment was conducted over two years to investigate the effect of Coriaria arborea, a native nitrogen-fixing shrub, on soil seed banks at sites representing a post-volcanic successional sequence on Mt Tarawera, New Zealand. The sites ranged from bare volcanic ash and lapilli substrate, through low-growing pre-Coriaria vegetation, to dense stands of Coriaria scrub. Soils (to a depth of 50 mm) under recently established Coriaria and older stands had more seedlings (1096 and 1585 seedlings 0.4 m-2, respectively) and species (37 and 45 species 0.4 m-2, respectively) emerge than where there was no Coriaria (243-320 seedlings 0.4 m-2, 14-25 species 0.4 m-2) and were the only soils with Coriaria seedlings. In total, 3488 seedlings representing 63 taxa were recorded. Seeds were still germinating after 24 months but rates declined markedly in the second year. For example, Coriaria reached a germination peak at 8 weeks but continued to germinate sporadically over the 2-year period. Tree species present in young forest within 0.5 km of the sites were absent. Establishment of Coriaria greatly accelerated an underlying trend of gradually increasing abundance and diversity of seeds in the soil with vegetation age. Adventive, wind-dispersed, and annual species were over-represented in the seed banks compared with the regional evergreen forest-dominated flora. These proportions are expected to decline as succession to forest gradually occurs

Spatio-Temporal Low Count Processes with Application to Violent Crime Events

There is significant interest in being able to predict where crimes will happen, for example to aid in the efficient tasking of police and other protective measures. We aim to model both the temporal and spatial dependencies often exhibited by violent crimes in order to make such predictions. The temporal variation of crimes typically follows patterns familiar in time series analysis, but the spatial patterns are irregular and do not vary smoothly across the area. Instead we find that spatially disjoint regions exhibit correlated crime patterns. It is this indeterminate inter-region correlation structure along with the low-count, discrete nature of counts of serious crimes that motivates our proposed forecasting tool. In particular, we propose to model the crime counts in each region using an integer-valued first order autoregressive process. We take a Bayesian nonparametric approach to flexibly discover a clustering of these region-specific time series. We then describe how to account for covariates within this framework. Both approaches adjust for seasonality. We demonstrate our approach through an analysis of weekly reported violent crimes in Washington, D.C. between 2001-2008. Our forecasts outperform standard methods while additionally providing useful tools such as prediction intervals

The Scientific Reach of Multi-Ton Scale Dark Matter Direct Detection Experiments

The next generation of large scale WIMP direct detection experiments have the potential to go beyond the discovery phase and reveal detailed information about both the particle physics and astrophysics of dark matter. We report here on early results arising from the development of a detailed numerical code modeling the proposed DARWIN detector, involving both liquid argon and xenon targets. We incorporate realistic detector physics, particle physics and astrophysical uncertainties and demonstrate to what extent two targets with similar sensitivities can remove various degeneracies and allow a determination of dark matter cross sections and masses while also probing rough aspects of the dark matter phase space distribution. We find that, even assuming dominance of spin-independent scattering, multi-ton scale experiments still have degeneracies that depend sensitively on the dark matter mass, and on the possibility of isospin violation and inelasticity in interactions. We find that these experiments are best able to discriminate dark matter properties for dark matter masses less than around 200 GeV. In addition, and somewhat surprisingly, the use of two targets gives only a small improvement (aside from the advantage of different systematics associated with any claimed signal) in the ability to pin down dark matter parameters when compared with one target of larger exposure.Comment: 23 pages; updated to match PRD versio

Contribution of Non-Timber Forest Products to Rural Household Income in Zambia

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) play an important role in supporting rural livelihoods and food security in Zambia. NTFP-dependent households are poorer, have younger household heads with lower levels of education, and are located closer to district towns than other rural households are. NTFPs are a particularly important source of income in Luapula, Northwestern and Western provinces. • Income from woodfuel represented the greatest share of income for households that participated in NTFPs, and it was the most commonly reported business activity, with 68% of NTFP households reporting income from charcoal and firewood. NTFPs contribute an average of 32% to total household income among participants, with the poorest being more dependent on these sources. • Given the widespread demand for woodfuel and other forest products, it is likely that rural households will continue to engage in the extraction and trade of NTFPs as a business activity. However, charcoal production, if left unchecked, could compromise the integrity of forests and adversely affect the availability of other NTFPs. In order to reduce households’ reliance on charcoal/firewood as an income source, outreach efforts could promote other NTFPs such as wild honey, ants, and mushrooms as business activities. Mushrooms, ants, and caterpillars may particularly be important activities for female-headed households, as more female-headed households derived income from these sources.NON-TIMBER FOREST, ZAMBIA, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics,

Black hole-neutron star mergers: effects of the orientation of the black hole spin

The spin of black holes in black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries can have a strong influence on the merger dynamics and the postmerger state; a wide variety of spin magnitudes and orientations are expected to occur in nature. In this paper, we report the first simulations in full general relativity of BHNS mergers with misaligned black hole spin. We vary the spin magnitude from a/m=0 to a/m=0.9 for aligned cases, and we vary the misalignment angle from 0 to 80 degrees for a/m=0.5. We restrict our study to 3:1 mass ratio systems and use a simple Gamma-law equation of state. We find that the misalignment angle has a strong effect on the mass of the postmerger accretion disk, but only for angles greater than ~ 40 degrees. Although the disk mass varies significantly with spin magnitude and misalignment angle, we find that all disks have very similar lifetimes ~ 100ms. Their thermal and rotational profiles are also very similar. For a misaligned merger, the disk is tilted with respect to the final black hole's spin axis. This will cause the disk to precess, but on a timescale longer than the accretion time. In all cases, we find promising setups for gamma-ray burst production: the disks are hot, thick, and hyperaccreting, and a baryon-clear region exists above the black hole.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figure